Juma: Israel will endure far more harm from this conflict than it’d count on

48 Juma: Israel will endure far more harm from this conflict than it’d count on

On October 7 the world was shocked by one other flare-up of the Palestinian-Israeli battle, and, this time, a really severe one. Not solely did Hamas hearth rockets at Israel, but it surely additionally penetrated Israeli territory. The operation, referred to as Al-Aqsa Flood, has been unprecedented when it comes to audacity and planning. Over a thousand Israelis have been killed, it is estimated, and greater than 3,500 wounded, territories have been captured, navy personnel and civilians have been taken hostage. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu introduced the beginning of a full-scale conflict, promising to depart the Gaza Strip in ruins. 

The present occasions have been a results of the largest failure of Israel’s state safety system in latest historical past. They’ve severely shaken the idea within the “omnipresence” of the Mossad (Israel’s intelligence service) and the invincibility of the Israel Protection Forces (IDF). For a lot of hours, the Israeli military was totally helpless as Palestinian armed teams attacked the nation. Israeli intelligence additionally failed to forestall the disaster in any method. In the meantime, even the day chosen by Hamas for the beginning of the operation was fairly symbolic – the fiftieth anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur Battle.

Presently, the Israeli authorities have just one method out– to scrub away their dishonor with the blood of the enemy. This might be accomplished by pulling floor troops into Gaza and dealing a damaging blow to Hamas. Issues, nevertheless, are additional sophisticated by the truth that Hamas shouldn’t be alone. It’s backed by Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Earlier, Hezbollah promised to open a second entrance, and at the moment it overtly joined the armed battle on the aspect of the Palestinians. To date, it has taken motion solely from the border space. The perimeters are exchanging strikes, Hezbollah already has deaths, for which the management of the motion promised to take revenge.

Consultants word that Hezbollah possesses superior weapons, appreciable fight expertise, and has the total assist of Tehran.

No must underestimate the opponent 

Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has warned that Hezbollah has grow to be extra harmful than ever in recent times. With main victories on the battlefield in Syria, enormous weapons arsenals in Lebanon, and highly effective allies all through the area, Hezbollah is on the peak of its navy and political energy, and is at its strongest since its founding in 1985. 

It’s not publicly recognized precisely what kind of weapons Hezbollah possesses and what number of weapons it has, or how massive the group’s fight items are (Hezbollah is not only a paramilitary formation, however a official political occasion in Lebanon). Nonetheless, some data is on the market. The publicly out there knowledge and observations, in addition to data from individuals tied to the group, permit us to attract sure conclusions. 

The potential to shock 

Theoretically, the whole lot that the Iranian military-industrial advanced has to supply might be transferred to Hezbollah fighters. This consists of dozens of varieties of missiles and drones. Furthermore, Tehran aids Hezbollah with a whole bunch of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} yearly. Which means Hezbollah can provide severe resistance to Israel not solely on land, but in addition at sea and within the air. There’s proof that in recent times Hezbollah has acquired superior naval navy tools, together with Yakhont and C-802 anti-ship cruise missiles, in addition to UAV submarines.

It additionally possesses ballistic missiles. Consultants say that the vary of Iranian missiles is 500-to-700 kilometers, which permits them to hit any level on the map in Israel.

As for the variety of fighters, two years in the past Hezbollah’s Secretary Normal claimed that the group has about 100,000 educated fighters. Hassan Nasrallah pressured that that is solely the variety of skilled troopers. The group might also enlist the assist of quite a few allied teams and followers from around the globe.

A concentrate on missiles and extra 

Hezbollah’s arsenal of missile weapons has steadily grown since 2006 (the Second Lebanon Battle). In keeping with media studies, it at the moment has about 200,000 missiles, together with high-precision, clever missile methods, in addition to drones and air protection methods.

Russia’s Kornet anti-tank missile system was used throughout battles in southern Lebanon in 2006, and was in a position to hit Israel’s Merkava tanks. As for the high-precision missiles that Netanyahu talked about on the UN in 2017 and 2018, these are Zelzal artillery rockets (160-km vary) which Iran actively used within the conflict with Iraq (1980-1988), Zelzal-2 artillery rockets (210-km vary), and the Fateh-110 surface-to-surface ballistic missile. The latter was used throughout Operation Martyr Soleimani, launched by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) towards the US navy in Iraq in response to the assassination of the commander of the Quds Power, Normal Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in Baghdad. 

It is usually recognized that the Iranians handed over numerous artillery items and shells to their Lebanese colleagues. Furthermore, Hezbollah possesses many heavy armored automobiles. A few of them we’ve seen in the course of the Syrian marketing campaign – for instance, T-55, T-72, and T-80 tanks. The group additionally has numerous varieties of infantry preventing automobiles and armored personnel carriers, the 2S1 Carnation self-propelled howitzer, the Shilka anti-aircraft self-propelled weapon system, and extra.

Hezbollah is able to firing 3,000 rockets per day throughout Israeli territory, and may attain targets at any distance. Consultants additionally declare that, as of 2021, the Lebanese occasion had about 2,000 unmanned aerial automobiles (UAVs). Contemplating Iran’s extremely profitable growth of fight drones, there may be little doubt that that is certainly true. 


Israel’s state of affairs is additional sophisticated by the existence of an intensive community of underground tunnels utilized by Hezbollah fighters for transferring round, transporting navy tools, and storing weapons. The IDF often destroys tunnels stretching from southern Lebanon to northern Israel, however even the Israeli navy acknowledges that the variety of secret underground passages is overwhelming, and it’s not possible to destroy all of them. 

Gadi Eizenkot, the twenty first Chief of Normal Employees of the IDF, typically famous that these tunnels permit Hezbollah to hold out surprising strikes. Nonetheless, the group continues growing in additional methods; it trains hackers and pays rising consideration to data applied sciences.  5 years in the past, I used to be in a position to interview Hezbollah’s media officer Muhammad Afif. That is what he informed me on the time.

“We confront our enemies in any respect attainable ranges –  together with by means of intelligence companies, particular forces, ideology, and naturally, the Web. We don’t intend to lag behind our opponents in something. Hezbollah carefully watches Israel’s each transfer. Any new know-how that they’ve, we’ve too. Hezbollah has a unit that focuses on digital warfare and hackers. We pay quite a lot of consideration to promoting, PR, and social networks. In fact, we can’t say that we’re unmatched on this, however it’s a promising course. Particularly amongst younger individuals who wish to work on-line and know how you can do it. For our half, we offer them with the whole lot they want for coaching and work. Not solely Lebanese individuals are concerned – many younger individuals from overseas assist Hezbollah.”

Contemplating the entire above, we might draw a number of essential conclusions. If Israel wins a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah, it should certainly be a Pyrrhic victory. Hezbollah can even endure irreparable harm because of a direct conflict with Israel. Nonetheless, there’s a elementary distinction within the ideas of the 2 sides. Hezbollah is a corporation that was created (and exists) to struggle and die, as soon as it has fulfilled its mission of mortally wounding the enemy. The query is, would Israel be able to do the identical? 

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