A coup in a poor African nation is just not remarkable, however the modern-day geopolitical context offers it world significance
By Timur Fomenko, a political analyst
The west African nation of Niger has deposed its authorities in a army coup, setting the stage for a confrontation with the West. Niger has been in a situation like most states in West Africa, with its former overlord France persevering with to wield monetary and army energy over the nation and Paris looking for to intervene within the nation’s affairs.
For that purpose, the coup has been standard, with protests demanding France out and Russia in. Within the new geopolitical surroundings we reside in, African states now have elevated political area and choices to expel Western affect. Niger, a landlocked, impoverished and war-torn nation, albeit one wealthy in uncooked supplies, is ready to turn into a brand new frontier.
Within the period of American unipolarity, the states of Africa had been uncovered to the West. Poor, determined, and unstable, many African nations had been compelled to depend on their former colonial overlords, in addition to the US, for varied types help. This was very true through the ‘conflict on terror’ period, when Islamic insurgencies threatened the safety of their populations. French and US Particular Forces could be deployed to struggle terrorists in West African states, for instance in a horrific kidnapping in a lodge in Mali in 2015. Nevertheless, this help, be it monetary or army, got here at the price of requiring that African states fulfill the ideological phrases and situations of the West – a type of neocolonialism.
The world has modified, although. The war-on-terror context is over, and as a substitute we now reside in a geopolitical surroundings dictated by sharp competitors between highly effective international locations – primarily the US and its allies towards rivals akin to China and Russia. This surroundings implies that African states now produce other “choices” to select from for help, which permits them to maximise their very own political autonomy and area reasonably than fulfilling the ideological situations of one other. For instance, African states reportedly more and more use the Wagner Group for safety reasonably than Western help, whereas China’s Belt and Street initiative additionally means African states can now not be exploited by organisations such because the IMF.
In these circumstances, with militaries being the strongest political actors in unstable international locations akin to Niger, the chance arises for them to grab energy and be protected against Western predation, as a result of on this worldwide system, the US can now not conduct direct unilateral army interventions. This has seen governments and militaries benefit from an anti-French backlash throughout West Africa and use it to start driving out the presence of the previous colonial masters. In simply the area of a yr, the French military has been expelled from Mali and Burkina Faso. Niger is presumably subsequent. Nevertheless, the danger of a French-backed civil conflict does stay.
Ought to the coup in Niger finally succeed, the brand new authorities are intent on forming nearer relations with Russia, which might turn into a brand new and far easier guarantor of safety. Whereas China sometimes supplies financial and infrastructure help to African states, in addition to a assure of non-intervention and assist for nationwide sovereignty, it’s much less overt and restrained in offering particular army assist to crush insurgencies, which is extra Russia’s area of interest.
Niger after all has strategic significance too. Whereas it’s simple to dismiss it as a landlocked and impoverished nation in the course of the desert, Niger has a vital inventory of pure assets, together with uranium, coal, gold, iron ore, tin, phosphates, petroleum, molybdenum, salt, and gypsum. Its uranium provides are among the many world’s largest, which is completely vital for nuclear energy. It is because of this that France is just not prepared to surrender Niger with out a struggle, and a possible proxy battle could loom. If Western-backed pursuits within the nation are defeated, the strategic lack of Niger when it comes to the assets it wields could be large, and it’s extremely doubtless that China would acquire a bonus over the West within the course of.
All of this has made Niger into the world’s very unlikely new frontier. Whereas discuss of coups and civil wars in Africa could appear extraordinary to Western audiences, they’re now taking place in a brand new geopolitical surroundings broadly perceived as a brand new Chilly Warfare. The West’s condescending angle in direction of Africa, a continent that seeks its personal independence and prosperity, is taking its toll. Doorways are opening for different gamers, and that’s why we’re right here right now.
The statements, views and opinions expressed on this column are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially characterize these of RT.
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