WASHINGTON — The US pause in navy assist to Ukraine and sharing intelligence with the war-torn nation has led Russian forces to step up missile strikes to an depth not often seen because the February 2022 invasion, hastening Kyiv’s retreat from Moscow’s Kursk area and damaging hope of leverage in potential cease-fire talks.
Moscow has launched greater than 80 missiles at Ukraine since Wednesday’s intelligence-sharing pause — after relying virtually solely on artillery and drone strikes for not less than every week prior — and greater than 1,550 assault drones because the assist pause on March 3.
Throughout the identical interval, Ukraine’s forces have more and more misplaced territory in Kursk, and a Ukrainian commander informed The Put up final week that Kyiv’s forces could be again in Ukrainian territory by March 19.
Whereas Ukraine’s Kursk operation has been struggling since January, the Trump administration’s pullbacks because the contentious assembly between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb. 28 have closely hindered its skill to proceed their struggle to maintain the Russian territory for doable negotiations with Moscow, in keeping with analyses by the Washington-based Basis for Defending Democracy and Institute for the Examine of Conflict.
“My sense is that these pressures have been constructing,” mentioned FDD’s Russia Program director John Hardie. “I don’t assume [the pause on intelligence sharing] was essentially the set off, however I’ve heard some troops there in Kursk say that that’s been a problem minimize off of intelligence.”
Because the pauses started, Ukraine has not struck Russian forces in Ukraine with HIMARS rockets, which have served as an essential deterrent to Moscow’s advances because the US first provided them to Kyiv roughly two years in the past.
That’s possible as a consequence of two causes, each tied to the current US coverage modifications, ISW’s Russia group lead George Barros informed The Put up on Monday.
For one, Kyiv could also be saving its present provides of HIMARS munitions for blocking Russian advances into Ukrainian territory — which is extra critically essential to sustaining its sovereignty — with out the promise of further assist, he mentioned.
“If the Ukrainians solely have say, X-number of HIMARS [munitions] left, they usually’re saving them as a result of they’re not going to get any extra they could must make a tough selection between do they use them now to attempt to assist the Ukrainians in Kursk to a combating withdrawal, or save them for extra essential issues?” Barros mentioned.
And when the US halted sharing intelligence with Ukraine on Wednesday, Kyiv misplaced important skill to focus on Moscow’s forces in Russian territory — making it practically not possible to strike the enemy in Kursk with HIMARS even when they needed to, each Hardie and Barros mentioned.
“When it comes to issues like divining Russian plans, or actually strikes on Russian command and management and different high-value targets, that’s one thing that the US has been useful with prior to now, and so not having that, after all, just isn’t precisely optimum for the Ukrainians,” Hardie mentioned.
That’s a major loss, as HIMARS have been significantly useful originally of the Kursk operation in August when Ukraine shocked the world by advancing into Russian territory for the primary time, Barros mentioned.
“When the Russians mounted their preliminary counter-attacks, the Ukrainians used HIMARS with the intention to defend their positions and proceed the momentum, and we’ve not seen any such strikes because the intel minimize in Kursk,” Barros mentioned.
When Nationwide Safety Adviser Mike Waltz introduced the choice to cease sharing intelligence, he talked about not enabling offensive assaults or assaults in Russia, which Barros mentioned “might be interpreted as ‘we’re not going to be offering you concentrating on data for hearth munitions at Kursk.’”
Whereas Waltz’s transfer contributed to Ukraine’s halted advance into Russia, Kyiv was already nearing its finish in Kursk, in keeping with the specialists — and the shortage of intelligence now hurts Ukrainian forces’ skill to retreat gracefully with out excessive losses.
“With the absence of the HIMARS, they went in with them and our assist, however they’re pulling out now with out them and our assist,” Barros mentioned. “And so even when the Ukrainians determined they’re going to withdraw their forces, it might be nice if they might have had some assist from HIMARS to have the ability to cowl them as they retreat, probably preserve bigger Russian forces at bay and that type of factor.”
And whereas the US resolution could have helped the meant aim of stopping not less than some combating within the battle, it has additionally precipitated Ukraine to lose leverage in potential negotiations with Russia for a cease-fire — one thing President Trump has repeatedly known as for in current weeks.
Such leverage would have been useful in bringing a couple of peaceable decision to the battle, Barros mentioned, as a result of “the Russians are the obstacles to the peace deal this stage” after Ukraine provided an air and sea cease-fire forward of talks with a Washington delegation in Riyadh this week.
“The Russians are demanding that Ukraine not be a sovereign nation and that there not be peacekeepers, so there’s a requirement right here in that there, we really must get the Russians to again down on a few of their their calls for,” he mentioned.
“Reducing the intelligence and navy assist and the removing of the Kursk salient, that’s going to lower American leverage with Russia for the long run robust negotiations that we’re going to want with the Russians to attempt to get to a suitable model of peace,” Barros continued.
“Pressuring the Ukrainians, chopping their assist, chopping their intel sharing, it really type of hurts President Trump’s targets, as a result of it solely removes the leverage that the president will want sooner or later talks.”
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