With France and Germany hobbled by political crises and Britain sidelined because of Brexit, the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, stands out as the final nationwide statesman standing to marshal Europe’s response to Donald Trump’s impending return to the White Home.
Buffeted by financial, diplomatic and political threats on all sides, the previous continent is ailing ready for a brand new chapter through which Vladimir Putin is urgent his navy benefit in Ukraine earlier than Trump can attempt to pressure a peace deal that might harm the pursuits of Ukrainians and Europeans. Trump, who has spoken of letting Russia do “regardless of the hell they need” with Nato nations that don’t spend sufficient on defence, can be threatening huge tariffs towards his closest allies that might break up Europe and set off a harmful transatlantic commerce warfare.
Enter Tusk, a seasoned centre-right chief who as soon as chaired EU summits, who has defeated rightwing populists at house and maintains good relations with the US, the UK, the European Fee president, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Nato secretary basic, Mark Rutte. By likelihood, Poland takes over the rotating EU presidency from maverick Hungary within the first half of 2025, giving it an opportunity to form the agenda in these essential months. Trump might hate Brussels however he likes Poland, the place he obtained a heat welcome throughout his first presidency.
French president Emmanuel Macron, Italian prime minister Giulia Meloni and Hungarian premier Viktor Orban are every vying to be Trump’s go-to associate in Europe, however none of them can construct a European consensus just like the Polish chief.
“If anybody can heat his coronary heart to Europe, it’s Tusk,” mentioned a former US official who served within the earlier Trump administration. The professional-American Polish chief is properly positioned to persuade the Republican nationalist that nearer European defence cooperation can strengthen Nato with out harming US pursuits.
Poland, a fast-growing economic system that launched into an enormous defence funding programme after Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, rejoined the European mainstream final yr after eight years of defying the EU over the rule of legislation, and choosing fights with Germany, the EU’s largest economic system, and France, its solely nuclear energy. Bucking the intolerant, authoritarian pattern sweeping a lot of central Europe and the Balkans, Polish voters ejected the nationwide conservative authorities of Jarosław Kaczyński’s Regulation and Justice social gathering (PiS), which had captured the judiciary, public broadcasting and state corporations.
Political change in Warsaw has put the nation again on the centre of EU politics. Tusk’s Civic Platform social gathering is a part of the European Folks’s social gathering dominant within the Fee and the European parliament. Poland has revived the Weimar Triangle cooperation format with Germany and France – a diplomatic settlement to have interaction in common dialogue on EU affairs. It has joined the alliance of Nordic and Baltic nations and is a part of the Bucharest 9 grouping of central and jap Nato members.
Tusk has been warning all yr that Europe have to be ready for a looming warfare. Anticipating Trump’s victory, he mentioned Europeans must depend on their very own capabilities, declaring “the period of geopolitical outsourcing is over”.
For historic causes, the Poles have an acute sense of the hazard of Russian hegemony, and a dedication to alert the remainder of Europe to the necessity for stronger defences and financial safety. Tusk has been utilizing his convening energy within the run-up to the EU presidency to knit collectively a wide range of coalitions to attempt to press these targets.
Defence ministers of the 5 fundamental continental powers – the UK, France, Germany, Poland and Italy – met in Berlin in a new E5 format created partly to attract London into European defence cooperation. International ministers of the Weimar Triangle met in Warsaw on the 1,000th day of the warfare in Ukraine to vow their persevering with help for Kyiv. Tusk proposed joint naval patrols within the Baltic Sea at a gathering of Nordic and Baltic leaders in Sweden after the suspected sabotage of significant underwater fibre-optic cables final month.
Enjoying a distinguished function in European management can be a part of Tusk’s technique to entrench his dominance at house by making certain that his social gathering’s candidate, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, wins the election to exchange the rightwing president, Andrzej Duda, in Could. Duda, a two-term PiS nominee, has used his powers to thwart Tusk’s reform agenda and block his diplomatic and judicial appointments, irritating progressive Poles who had excessive hopes of bettering homosexual rights and overturning bans on abortion.
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However home politics might constrain his skill to exert EU management in some areas, and European affairs might even backfire on him. For instance, Tusk sided with Polish farmers and truck drivers of their protests towards the unrestricted opening of the EU market to Ukrainian grain imports and highway hauliers. He additionally stirred controversy in October by threatening to droop EU asylum guidelines at Poland’s jap border to stop the weaponisation of migrants by Belarus and Russia.
Poland welcomed, housed and put to work about 1 million Ukrainian refugees in 2022. However a possible recent inflow within the wake of devastating Russian assaults on Ukraine’s electrical energy infrastructure might pressure Polish assets and gas nationalist candidates within the presidential ballot.
Regardless of these home pitfalls, Tusk appears higher positioned than others to make his mark as Europe’s “Trump whisperer” and attempt to preserve a fractious EU united in help of Ukraine because it hunkers down for Hurricane Donald.
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