Why Donald Trump’s return is a catastrophe for Europe | Paul Taylor

Tright here is nothing however dangerous information for Europe in Donald Trump’s US election victory. The one query is simply how dangerous it can get. Europeans stand to endure strategically, economically and politically from his “America first” insurance policies, in addition to from his unpredictability and transactional strategy to international affairs. The undermining of Nato, the emboldening of intolerant nationalists in every single place, a transatlantic commerce warfare, and a battle over European regulation of US social media platforms, AI and cryptocurrencies are simply a few of the main dangers of a second Trump presidency.

Furthermore, Europe is prone to being squeezed in a deepening US-China commerce battle, with the prospect of coming below extreme stress from Washington to curtail financial ties with Beijing, whereas going through a potential flood of low cost Chinese language items diverted by prohibitive tariffs from the US market.

The prospect of severely strained transatlantic relations catches Europe at a second of nice fragility. European economies are lagging behind the US and China in innovation, funding and productiveness. Germany and France are weakened by political crises. Rightwing populists, taking part in on fears of globalisation and migration, are on the rise throughout Europe, too. And Russian troops are slowly grinding ahead towards Ukrainian defenders, whereas the west is not delivering sufficient help for Kyiv to prevail.

It’s removed from clear whether or not EU nations will be capable to unite in defence of widespread pursuits if a Republican administration presses forward with threatened tariffs on all European items – or if Trump tries to throw Ukraine below a bus and lower a cope with Russian president Vladimir Putin to finish the warfare on phrases humiliating for Kyiv. Historical past is just not encouraging.

The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, one of many EU’s few robust centre-right leaders, declared on the weekend that “the period of geopolitical outsourcing is over”. Europe, he mentioned, wanted to lastly develop up and consider in its personal energy. He’s not alone in wishing that Trump’s victory would jolt Europeans into doing extra collectively for his or her defence, and constructing a stronger European pillar of Nato. France has lengthy been pushing for such “strategic autonomy”, however many EU nations stay cautious of something that might weaken the transatlantic bond.

EU nations conduct commerce coverage collectively, so the European Fee has had a back-room workforce getting ready for a attainable Trump return for weeks, readying methods to hit again quick and arduous if obligatory in any tariff dispute. However it’s removed from clear whether or not Ursula von der Leyen will be capable to marshal the 27 EU states behind a typical line. There could possibly be a repeat of the unseemly scramble to Washington we noticed throughout Trump’s final time period to curry favour with the White Home and attempt to safe higher phrases for particular person European nations, maybe in change for getting extra US weapons.

Von der Leyen reminded Trump in a congratulatory message that “hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions in commerce and funding on both sides of the Atlantic rely on the dynamism and stability of our financial relationship”. However the incoming US president is obsessive about the imbalance in items commerce with Europe, and particularly with German vehicles.

Strategically, Trump’s win is sure to revive uncertainty over the way forward for Nato, which he threatened to stop throughout his first time period within the White Home. Whereas Congress has since enacted a legislation making it more durable for the US to withdraw from the alliance, nothing can stop the president from undercutting its credibility by making clear he wouldn’t come to European nations’ defence towards Russian aggression. Trump mentioned as a lot earlier this 12 months, asserting that he would encourage Russia to do “regardless of the hell they need” with Nato allies that didn’t pay sufficient in defence spending.

Trump’s supporters say his robust strategy in his first time period shocked European allies into lastly growing defence spending – and that he’s proper to query why American taxpayers ought to go on subsidising the safety of rich European nations that free-ride on US safety. Fiona Hill, his former White Home Russia adviser, informed me Trump merely didn’t perceive the worth of alliances or allies. His strategy to safety is solely transactional.

The affect of a second Trump presidency on Europe’s inner politics could also be simply as damaging as on commerce and worldwide relations. One veteran former EU official mentioned Trump wouldn’t solely embolden nationwide populist leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić to kind a form of “intolerant internationale”, however his affect might additionally pull mainstream European conservatives additional to the best on migration and gender points, weakening Europe’s liberal values.

Amongst Trump’s billionaire backers have been libertarian US tech entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who’re relying on him to permit a free-for-all on social media, synthetic intelligence and cryptocurrency. Musk has been defiant within the face of EU and UK efforts to regulate hate speech and disinformation on his X social media platform.

The tech barons’ quest for unfettered energy to construct their empires past the attain of governments and central banks is sure to arrange a confrontation throughout a second Trump time period with European laws regulating the web, AI and digital currencies. That is one other transatlantic disaster within the making.

Given such a bleak outlook, the EU and the UK should be proactively getting ready for the worst, and shifting nearer collectively to defend their many widespread pursuits and values. Sadly, there’s little signal of that within the timid foreplay between the 2 thus far.