One thing sudden – however hardly unprecedented – occurred in South Korea on Dec. 3, 2024. With little warning, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial legislation, citing the risk from “pro-North Korean anti-state forces.”
The transfer, which appeared extra about curbing efforts by the primary opposition – the center-left Democratic Get together – to frustrate Yoon’s coverage agenda by means of their management of parliament, left many South Koreans surprised. As one Seoul resident advised reporters: “It seems like a coup d’état.”
That interviewee wasn’t far off.
As students of authoritarian politics and authors of the colpus dataset of coup varieties and traits, we have now spent numerous hours documenting the historical past of coups d’état since World Struggle II.
Yoon’s short-lived martial legislation declaration – it lasted just some hours earlier than being lifted – was an instance of what political scientists name an “autogolpe,” or to provide the phenomenon its English identify, a “self-coup.”
Our information exhibits that self-coups have gotten extra widespread, with extra previously decade in contrast with another 10-year interval for the reason that finish of World Struggle II. What follows is a primer on why that’s taking place, what self-coups contain – and why, not like in round 80% of self-coups, Yoon’s gambit failed.
The elements of a self-coup
All coup makes an attempt share some traits. They contain an try to seize government energy and entail a concrete, observable and unlawful motion by navy or civilian personnel.
In a daily coup, these accountable will try to take energy from an incumbent or presumptive chief. Traditionally, most coups have been perpetrated, or a minimum of supported, by navy actors. A traditional instance is when the Chilean military underneath Gen. Augusto Pinochet ousted the federal government of Salvador Allende in 1973 and imposed navy rule.
Some coups, nonetheless, are led by leaders themselves.
These self-coups are coups in reverse. Reasonably than the chief of the nation being changed in an unconstitutional method, the incumbent government takes or sponsors unlawful actions towards different folks within the regime – for instance, the courts or parliament – with the objective of extending their keep in workplace or increasing their very own energy.
This will likely take the type of a chief government utilizing troops to close down the legislature, as Yoon tried unsuccessfully to do in South Korea. Others have had extra success; Tunisian President Kais Saied orchestrated a self-coup in July 2021 by dismissing parliament and the judiciary to pave the way in which for increasing his presidential energy. Greater than three years on, Saied stays in energy.
Alternatively, a frontrunner might attempt to coerce state officers or the legislature to overturn an election loss. We noticed this occur with Donald Trump after the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and as such we embrace his try to strain native officers – and then-Vice President Mike Pence – to overturn the election lead to our record of “self-coup makes an attempt.”
The types of self-coup strategies
However not all government energy grabs are self-coups. For instance, if a president will get the legislature to increase presidential time period limits and the courts approve – as Bolivian President Evo Morales did in 2017 – this can be a blow to government constraints and democracy, however we don’t contemplate it a coup for the reason that process for altering the legislation is constitutional.
In all, we have now recorded 46 self-coups since 1945 by democratically elected leaders within the forthcoming self-colpus dataset, together with the newest try in South Korea. Our self-coup information was compiled over the previous three years with the help of some enterprising undergraduate college students at Carnegie Mellon College.
Reviewing the circumstance – and outcomes – of those incidents helps us determine the most typical traits of self-coups.
Yoon’s actions in South Korea have been typical in some methods however not in others. Over half of self-coup makes an attempt in democratic nations goal the judiciary or the legislature, whereas round 40% explicitly search to undermine democratic elections or stop election winners from taking workplace. The remainder goal different regime elites or a nominal government.
Yoon declared martial legislation to seize government energy from an opposition-led legislature.
Curiously, solely 1 / 4 of self-coup makes an attempt in democracies contain such an emergency declaration. Far more widespread are assaults on opposition events and leaders and election interference.
About 1 in 5 self-coup leaders droop or annul the structure.
Comparatively few self-coup makes an attempt in democracies contain makes an attempt to evade time period limits, although self-coups that lead to so-called “leaders for all times” have gotten extra widespread in Africa.
Why are self-coups on the rise?
Coups and self-coups are two of the most typical methods democracies die, although their relative frequencies have modified over time.
Whereas coups have been the main reason behind democratic breakdown through the Chilly Struggle, self-coups have change into the main trigger for the reason that fall of the Soviet Union within the early Nineties.
A 3rd of all self-coup makes an attempt by democratically elected leaders since 1946 have occurred in simply the previous decade.
Although extra analysis is required to account for the current rise of self-coups, we consider a part of the reply lies within the decline of anti-coup norms – through which democracies punish coup leaders by withholding recognition, overseas assist or commerce offers – and the rise of personalist politics globally.
Why do self-coups fail?
Presidents and prime ministers who try self-coups presumably suppose they’ve likelihood of success – in the event that they didn’t, they wouldn’t try a coup within the first place.
The truth that Yoon launched his self-coup bid seemingly with out prior assist of leaders in his personal get together may be very uncommon.
Whereas solely half of conventional coup makes an attempt succeed, greater than 4 out of 5 self-coup makes an attempt by democratically elected leaders succeed, in accordance with our information.
Hector Mata/AFP by way of Getty Photos
So what went incorrect for Yoon in South Korea?
Coup success will depend on coordinating lots of people, together with partisan allies and navy elites. Though overt navy assist of the type Yoon initially acquired is useful, it’s not all the time decisive.
Most self-coup failures occur when navy and get together elites defect. The explanations for these defections are likely to contain a mixture of structural and contingent elements. When lots of individuals pour into the streets to oppose the coup, like we noticed in Seoul, navy members can get nervous and defect. And worldwide condemnation of the coup can actually assist overturn self-coup makes an attempt.
Public assist for democracy additionally helps. That’s why self-coups don’t usually occur in long-established democracies like the US which have accrued “democratic capital” – the inventory of civic and social belongings that grows with a protracted historical past of democracy.
South Korea, though a navy dictatorship from 1961 to 1987, has had a long time of democratic rule. And the system labored in South Korea when threatened. Get together leaders united to vote unanimously towards Yoon.
That contrasts with profitable self-coups within the nation by Park Chung-hee in 1972 and Chun Doo-hwan in 1980.
What occurs to failed self-coup leaders?
Hardly ever has a failed self-coup chief remained in workplace for lengthy. The self-coup might cause them to be ousted in a coup, as occurred to Haiti’s Dumarsais Estimé in Might 1950. Or they might be impeached, as occurred with Peru’s Pedro Castillo in December 2022. Based on our information, just one failed self-coup chief managed to hold on to workplace for greater than a yr to the top of their time period. Although not compelled from workplace after the flawed 1994 Dominican elections, Joaquín Balaguer was compelled to comply with new elections in 1996 through which he wouldn’t be a candidate.
Odds are, then, that President Yoon’s days in energy are numbered. Following his tried self-coup, six opposition events submitted an impeachment movement towards the president. That movement wants 200 of 300 members of the Nationwide Meeting to move.
All 190 current members voted to finish martial legislation, together with 18 of 108 members from Yoon’s get together. Just a few extra of the conservative get together’s legislators must vote towards Yoon for impeachment proceedings to advance.
Threatened by a self-coup, South Korea’s democratic establishments appear to be holding – a minimum of for now.
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