Within the 2024 election cycle, voters with out kids are underneath the microscope.
Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance has mentioned that “childless cat girls” and older adults with out children are “sociopaths” who “don’t have a direct stake on this nation.”
So it was notable that when pop star Taylor Swift endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, she didn’t merely specific her assist and go away it at that. She additionally known as herself a “childless cat woman.”
Politicians and others typically use the phrase “childless” as an umbrella time period for individuals who do not need kids. However as social scientists who examine individuals with out kids, we all know that this doesn’t seize some necessary nuances.
Utilizing large-scale demographic knowledge, we’ve discovered that there are numerous kinds of nonparents – and every has its personal set of political priorities.
The vary of nonparents
Solely about 3% of People are really childless, or what the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention calls “involuntarily childless.” Most People who do not need kids should not childless. They’re some different sort of nonparent. Social scientists typically distinguish a number of kinds of nonparents:
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Childless individuals need kids however can not have them as a result of circumstances resembling infertility.
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Not but mother and father are individuals who do not need kids but, however plan to sooner or later. They are usually youthful.
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Undecided people aren’t positive whether or not they wish to have kids.
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Youngster-free individuals have determined they don’t want kids now or sooner or later.
These distinctions matter. When nonparents are mixed right into a single group, they appear demographically and politically much like everybody else.
However every sort of nonparent is affected by political points otherwise. And a few points are particularly consequential for child-free individuals.
The ramifications of Dobbs
Take abortion rights. The U.S. Supreme Courtroom’s 2022 determination in Dobbs v. Jackson ended a constitutional proper to an abortion. The ruling restricted entry to reproductive well being care in a number of states and created uncertainty in others.
Some politicians have expressed considerations in regards to the fallout of the Dobbs determination. They’ve pointed to the lack for some not-yet-parents to entry reproductive care if issues come up throughout being pregnant. They’ve additionally raised the alarm that Dobbs will result in limits on entry to in vitro fertilization for childless {couples}.
However these considerations are related just for individuals who wish to have kids. There’s often little speak amongst politicians and pundits in regards to the significance of reproductive rights for child-free individuals who don’t wish to have kids.
The share of Michigan adults figuring out as child-free rose from 21% earlier than Dobbs to almost 26% instantly afterward. This enhance occurred throughout a time when there was important confusion about entry to abortion in Michigan as a result of state legal guidelines have been ambiguous and being challenged within the courts.
Since Dobbs, there has additionally been a dramatic enhance in vasectomies and tubal ligations nationwide. A few of this enhance is the results of child-free individuals now turning to surgical procedure to keep away from having kids.
Youngster-free persons are ignored in different areas, too, resembling tax coverage and within the office.
Youngster-free individuals pay federal revenue taxes alongside mother and father. However each Republican and Democratic presidential platforms have positioned a heavy emphasis on increasing the kid tax credit score, which immediately advantages solely individuals who have or can have kids. Youngster-free individuals work alongside mother and father. However parental standing isn’t a protected class, which could possibly be why child-free individuals are likely to work longer hours and have much less leeway to take day without work.
Will a brand new bloc emerge?
Nonetheless, child-free persons are primed to play an necessary function in American politics for a number of causes.
First, there are a whole lot of them.
What number of People are child-free is determined by the way you ask them. Knowledge from nationwide face-to-face interviews counsel that round 10% of People are child-free. However knowledge from nameless surveys in Michigan and nationwide peg it at nearer to twenty% to 25%. If that’s the case, it may imply as many as 50 million to 60 million People are child-free.
Second, their numbers are rising. A spread of research counsel that yearly, extra People are reporting that they merely by no means wish to have kids.
Third, politicians’ derogatory feedback about “childless” individuals have gotten the eye of child-free individuals. And so they’re beginning to manage. For instance, Shannon Coulter, the influential activist behind the nonprofit group GrabYourWallet, is bringing them collectively via the nonpartisan Alliance of Childfree Voters.
It’s too quickly to know whether or not child-free individuals will be considered a definite voting bloc. However in our analysis, we discovered that child-free individuals within the swing state of Michigan lean liberal. Whereas there are related numbers of liberal and conservative mother and father within the state, child-free individuals who determine as liberal outnumber conservatives 2 to 1.
Given their measurement, progress, group and liberal leanings, it might be time for American politicians to suppose extra fastidiously about how child-free individuals slot in.
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