The 50-year-old jet gained’t flip the tide of the battle in Kiev’s favor, but it surely earnings its companions to maintain pretending
By Chay Bowes, a journalist and geopolitical analyst
Because the Western institution media begrudgingly accepts, what many analysts have lengthy predicted – that Kiev’s counteroffensive is a catastrophic failure – evidently Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky hasn’t gotten the memo.
He appears adamant that the mercurial F-16 fighter jet is the lacking hyperlink required to spur his depleted army to victory in opposition to Russia. There may be, nevertheless, just a little downside together with his thesis – there’s a couple of, truly, however let’s begin with the obvious.
At the same time as Ukraine’s long-awaited, much-hyped, however now clearly failed counteroffensive grinds to a bloody and dear halt, it appears the pro-war fans within the West and their proxies in Kiev nonetheless imagine that the F-16, an American fighter jet that first took to the skies almost 50 years in the past, can in some way save the day for Zelensky and his NATO handlers. However on the similar time hassle appears to be brewing in paradise because the Western media, which has so far performed such a pivotal function in overhyping Kiev’s army capabilities, is now lower than satisfied that this ageing American castoff can play something near a defining function in NATO’s stalling proxy battle in opposition to Russia.
Whereas Ukrainian casualties mount, Kiev nonetheless insists that its long-telegraphed counteroffensive is certainly “inching ahead,” though the stark actuality is that solely a tiny fraction of its said objectives have been achieved with huge quantities of Western materiel misplaced within the course of. This all comes as Ukraine’s Western “companions,” who had been beforehand so desirous to “stand with Ukraine so long as it takes,” turn into much less and fewer absolutist of their convictions. A coming winter, home woes, failed sanctions in opposition to Russia, and limitless calls for from Kiev to switch money and gear are all beginning to put on on an more and more nervous NATO. Zelensky’s failed offensive is now accelerating the pure development of battle weariness within the West, the place as soon as there was supreme, nearly absolute, confidence that Ukraine’s heroic warriors would simply solid out the barbarous Russian invaders. Plainly now even the spokesman for Ukraine’s decimated air drive, Yury Ignat, appears to simply accept that relating to truly defeating the large Russian army machine, discuss could be very low cost. Ignat not too long ago revealed that Ukrainian fighters can barely take off earlier than they’re focused by an awesome array of Russian fighters and anti-aircraft techniques. He additionally famous that Russian fighters are way more superior and have a far longer fight vary, one thing the Ukrainian president conveniently forgets to say throughout his awkward cockpit picture ops in Denmark, the place he but once more peddles the now-tired promise of the most recent in a protracted line of “recreation changers” – all of which the Russian Military has confirmed to be something however. All they alter, sadly, is the size of the battle and the variety of Ukrainian males doomed to die preventing it.
Whereas the NATO architects of this battle are after all desirous to dangle the carrot of F-16 deployment to an more and more determined Kiev, in actuality the fighters are extremely unlikely ever to see service within the skies above Ukraine, at the least not whereas the battle is in its present energetic part. Solely three “companion” nations (Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands) have promised handy a number of of the fighters over to Kiev, and there are nonetheless huge logistical points that may have to be ironed out earlier than they may even land in Ukraine, not to mention take off and enter fight.
It’s necessary to concentrate to the place details about the fact of the F-16s’ potential deployment comes from. That’s why, when US Joint Chiefs of Workers Chair Normal Mark Milley warned that the planes gained’t act as a “magic weapon” for Ukraine, many sober, nonaligned analysts took notice. Milley pulled no punches as he tried to pour some chilly water on Kiev’s expectations relating to the ageing jet. “The Russians have 1,000 fourth-generation fighters,” stated the final following a gathering of the multinational Ukraine Protection Contact Group in Might. “In the event you’re gonna contest Russia within the air, you’re gonna want a considerable quantity of fourth- and fifth-generation fighters, so in the event you take a look at the price curve and do the evaluation, the neatest factor to have carried out is strictly what we did do, which is present a big quantity of built-in air defenses to cowl the battlespace and deny the Russians the airspace.”
Plainly when a message isn’t taking part in to the narrative, the message will get conveniently shelved. Normal Milley’s feedback are a sobering reminder of the simple battlefield actuality, a reality routinely misplaced on Zelensky and firm because the PR prerogative trumps the strategic actuality on the bottom but once more in Kiev.
Apparently, Milley additionally addressed the large prices related to the availability of the F-16 to Ukraine: “In the event you take a look at the F-16, ten F-16s value a billion {dollars}, the sustainment value [is] one other billion {dollars}, so that you’re speaking about $2 billion for ten plane.” He additionally advised that if the money despatched to Ukraine to date had been spent on the sort of weapon, not on artillery and air protection, Kiev could be in a a lot worse place than it’s in the present day. “There are not any magic weapons in battle, F-16s should not and neither is anything,” he stated. In fact, the blunt and, from a Ukrainian perspective, dismal actuality is that Ukraine’s dilapidated infrastructure can’t even start to accommodate these complicated jets. Ukraine has no applicable coaching services on its soil, and a mere eight Ukrainian pilots have begun coaching in Denmark. Extra are set to start out the method within the US in October, however it will take years of preparation to have sufficient pilots in any significant numbers. One other truth glossed over by Kiev is that the F-16s, ought to they ever get so far as Ukraine, will want lots of floor upkeep infrastructure and extremely complicated logistical help, all of which must be deployed into what is actually a battle zone. Nobody on the NATO workforce appears to wish to deal with the minor element that the Russian Air Drive will likely be looking each the jets and the infrastructure from day one – one other inconvenient actuality conveniently ignored.
Whereas it now appears apparent that the precise provision of F-16s to Ukraine might be nothing greater than a far-off mirage, many now see the jet within the context the place it truly belongs – as one other NATO castoff cynically dumped into Ukraine by Washington’s allies on the promise of higher-tech replacements by a cash-hungry Uncle Sam. However given the dire efficiency of Western {hardware} on the battlefield to date, it should shock nobody if the US finally cans your complete mission slightly than undergo the embarrassing, and inevitable, photos of burning F-16s becoming a member of these of American Bradleys and MaxxPros within the fields of southern and japanese Ukraine.
In order the more and more uneasy architects of this catastrophic battle lastly start to simply accept that this all solely ends a method, they’re prone to string Kiev alongside for so long as potential relating to the illusive F-16s, similar to they’ve been doing with their guarantees of EU and NATO membership. Let’s not overlook, it was these exact same hole guarantees that set Ukraine on the street to this devastating battle with Russia, a battle solely the very silly may now imagine will likely be gained with a handful of 50-year-old fighter jets.
The statements, views and opinions expressed on this column are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially symbolize these of RT.
