Putin’s go to to Mongolia defies ICC warrant and assessments impartial nation’s ‘third neighbor’ diplomacy

Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia on Sept. 2, the primary time the Russian president has visited an Worldwide Felony Courtroom (ICC) member nation for the reason that physique issued a warrant for his arrest in 2023. Whereas formally commemorating a Soviet-Mongolian army victory in World Battle II, Putin’s go to will check the small central Asian nation’s coverage of neutrality and the attain of worldwide establishments.

Mongolia, a rustic of simply 3.3 million folks however with big geographical territory, has lengthy navigated its international coverage within the shadow of Russia and China, with whom it has intensive historic and financial ties.

The nation has tried to bolster its independence from its extra highly effective neighbors by creating cordial relations with so-called third neighbor international locations that embody the US, Germany, Japan and South Korea.

By means of this method, Mongolia has tried to carve out a distinct segment on the worldwide stage, presenting itself as a impartial diplomatic assembly floor. Its annual Ulaanbaatar Dialogue, for instance, is a chance for regional international locations and different invited nations, together with from the U.S. and EU member states, to debate points starting from local weather change to regional safety and demanding minerals.

As students of Mongolia and China, we attended the final such dialogue in June 2024 and witnessed Mongolia’s diplomatic efforts firsthand. It’s a technique that has labored for the nation, however as occasions like Putin’s go to spotlight, it may be a tricky balancing act.

A carefully watched go to

The timing of Putin’s journey is formally linked to historical past. It marks each the eighty fifth anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol – through which joint Soviet-Mongolian forces defeated Japanese troops in World Battle II – and the founding of Mongolia’s nationwide railway operator by the 2 international locations 75 years in the past.

But it’s a third historic marker, the fifth anniversary of a complete Russian-Mongolian strategic partnership, that highlights the go to’s significance from a contemporary geopolitical perspective.

Alongside its pleasant relations with “third neighbors,” Mongolia has maintained an in depth relationship with Moscow regardless of Putin’s pariah standing in a lot of the worldwide neighborhood. Most lately, in July, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh met with Putin on the Shanghai Cooperation Group summit.

But Putin’s go to now – the first he has made to the nation since 2019 – poses a problem for Mongolia because it seeks to stability its obligations and alliances with the Western-led worldwide order, of which the ICC is a component, and its want to stay pleasant with its highly effective neighbors.

Few issues show this diplomatic tightrope stroll like Mongolia’s membership within the ICC, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin over his alleged position within the illegal deportation and switch of Ukrainian youngsters to Russia. Ukraine has urged Mongolia to detain Putin, citing the ICC’s founding treaty, the Rome Statute, which instructs member international locations to take motion if topics to a court docket warrant enter their territory.

Nonetheless, the ICC lacks an efficient enforcement mechanism, and member states might also be exempt from finishing up arrests if doing so conflicts with sure treaty obligations or diplomatic immunity supplied to a different get together.

Putin’s go to is anticipated to show how little may be achieved to rein in Moscow. Given the ability imbalance between the states, Mongolia will doubtless present simply how far it’s prepared to go to accommodate its highly effective neighbor.

Mongolia’s ‘Third Neighbor’ coverage

For nearly 70 years, Mongolia was carefully allied with the Soviet Union. However the fall of communism and subsequent geopolitical reorientation of the post-Chilly Battle order pressured the nation to change its financial and political relations.

In so doing, Mongolia turned the one former communist state in Asia to undertake a democratic political system and open economic system. It gained favor with the U.S. and different Western international locations who embraced the nation as a job mannequin for the area.

Putin’s anticipated journey is however the newest in a sequence of current high-profile state visits as Mongolia seeks to take care of shut relations with its neighbors, whereas additionally increasing partnerships with different nations.

To date in 2024, Mongolia has obtained heads of state or international ministers from the U.S., Slovenia, the Philippines, Belarus, the UK and Germany. In 2023, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene traveled to the U.S. and met with Vice President Kamala Harris, and to China to see President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.

Each French President Emmanuel Macron and Pope Francis have lately visited Ulaanbaatar.

Mongolia can’t escape geography

Whereas smooth energy efforts have gained Ulaanbaatar goodwill and associates across the globe, they don’t trump geography. Landlocked between Russia and China, Mongolia stays weak to the whims of its two big neighbors.

Mongolia relies on Russia for nearly all its gasoline and diesel provides and a considerable a part of its electrical energy. Additional, as a result of a legacy settlement from the Soviet period, Russia retains 50% possession in a number of key infrastructure and mining initiatives in Mongolia. Specifically, Russia is a companion within the Mongolian railway system, which has grown in significance as a commerce hall between China and Russia, and China and Europe.

Mongolia fears that its gas provides and transportation community will probably be disrupted if Russia prioritizes its personal vitality wants within the midst of battle over the pursuits of its neighbors, nevertheless deep these ties could also be.

Equally, Mongolia relies on China for almost all of its non-energy imports, together with meals, client and industrial merchandise. And China is the vacation spot for 90% of Mongolia’s exports, primarily coal and copper.

Each Russia and China have used their financial and political muscle as leverage over Mongolia prior to now as a result of perceived slights, comparable to China’s disruption of commerce and a key mortgage in 2016 in protest of a go to to Mongolia by the Dalai Lama.

Mongolia and the brand new China-Russia alignment

Mongolia and different states in Central Asia face new challenges as Russia and China develop nearer politically and economically.

Mongolia performed the position of a buffer state between the Soviet Union and China for a lot of the twentieth century, and counted on the rivalry between the 2 superpowers to achieve and preserve its impartial standing.

However the rising friendship between China and Russia – highlighted by Putin and Xi’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership in February 2022, simply days earlier than Russian troops invaded Ukraine – raises the query whether or not China and Russia will start to behave in live performance to achieve much more leverage over Mongolia and different smaller states in area.

It’s these geopolitical considerations that Ulaanbaatar could also be fixated upon throughout Putin’s go to. Whilst Mongolia has been affected by the sanctions positioned on Russia, seeing transportation and enterprise hyperlinks disrupted, the nation has steered away from confrontations with Moscow in worldwide settings.

Together with China, Mongolia routinely abstains from United Nations resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However in an indication that Mongolia stays dedicated to its third neighbor coverage, it has additionally been cautious to not violate the sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and its allies.

Whereas Mongolia acknowledges the significance of Putin’s go to to take care of good ties and the movement of gas to the nation, it can even be involved with how the go to and its anticipated non-enforcement of ICC sanctions will harm the nation’s standing with world establishments and powers exterior the area.

In a shifting world order, Mongolia is working arduous to take care of independence by emphasizing its position as a impartial state and buddy to all. However visits comparable to Putin’s present how troublesome that endeavor may be.