Two Hudson Valley Home incumbents — Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan — lead their rivals in polls heading into the election marketing campaign’s residence stretch, because of huge gender gaps of their favor.
Freshman Lawler leads ex-Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones 49% to 44% amongst possible voters within the seventeenth District encompassing Rockland, Putnam and components of Westchester and Dutchess counties, the Emerson Faculty Ballot/Pix 11/The Hill survey launched Tuesday discovered.
The remaining 7% of voters queried late final week have been nonetheless undecided or supporting a minor get together candidate.
Lawler’s five-point lead was fueled by an enormous 27-point benefit amongst males, whereas Jones was forward by 16 factors amongst ladies.
Since earlier this month, Lawler’s help has elevated by 4 factors, from 45% to 49%, whereas Jones’ help has held at 44%.
Within the 18th district, encompassing Dutchess, Orange and Ulster counties, Ryan was backed by 51% of possible voters, whereas Republican rival Alison Esposito had the help of 42%.
Ryan led Esposito by an enormous 20-point margin amongst ladies in a district the place abortion has been a giant marketing campaign difficulty.
They have been splitting the vote amongst males.
The incumbent’s help elevated by three factors, from 48% to 51%, whereas Esposito’s help decreased by some extent, in comparison with a previous Emerson survey earlier this month.
“There’s a stark gender divide within the seventeenth district, with males breaking for Lawler by 27 factors, and girls breaking by 16 for Jones, whereas males are extra divided within the 18th district: 47% help Esposito and 46% help Ryan. Girls break for Ryan by 20 factors,” stated Spencer Kimball, govt director of Emerson Faculty Polling.
Each incumbents seem extra common than their rivals — 52% of voters had a positive view of Lawler in comparison with 44% who had a positive view of Jones.
Equally, 52% have a positive view of incumbent Ryan, whereas 41% have a positive opinion of Esposito.
“We’re glad to see this ballot verify what many in NY-17 already know — that Congressman Lawler is well-positioned for re-election and voters listed here are rejecting the outrageous lies towards Mike at present polluting the airwaves and voters’ mailboxes,” stated Lawler marketing campaign spokesman Nate Soule.
On the high of the ticket, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are aggressive.
Within the seventeenth district, 50% help Harris and 47% help Trump, throughout the ballot’s 4.4 share margin of error.
Within the 18th district, 49% help Donald Trump for president, 48% again Kamala Harris.
The highest points for voters within the seventeenth district are the financial system, at 30%, adopted by immigration (20%), housing affordability (15%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%).
The highest points for voters within the 18th district are additionally the financial system, at 32%, adopted by immigration (19%), housing affordability (14%), threats to democracy (11%), and crime (8%).
Voters have been additionally requested if they’re higher off financially now than they have been a yr in the past, about the identical, or worse off.
Half of voters within the seventeenth district say they’re worse off financially in the present day than a yr in the past, whereas 32% say they’re doing about the identical, and 18% are higher off.
Within the 18th, 48% within the 18th district are worse off, 35% about the identical, and 18% higher off.
The Emerson Faculty/Pix11/The Hill New York seventeenth and 18th district surveys have been performed from October 24-26 by way of cellular phone textual content message and on-line.
Within the seventeenth district, 475 possible voters participated and the ballot has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 share factors.
Within the 18th district, 450 possible voters have been queried with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 share factors.
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