Staring straight on the digital camera, with a grave expression on his face, the president uttered these well-known phrases: “I shall not search, and I cannot settle for, the nomination of my social gathering for one more time period as your president.”
Lyndon Johnson made that announcement on the finish of his nationally televised tackle on the Vietnam Battle on March 31, 1968. These phrases now echo loudly, as pundits recall them within the wake of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election.
Like Biden, Johnson was a sitting Democratic president who was eligible for one more time period. Each males understood the percentages in opposition to reelection, and each opted out. Their selections form their legacies as presidents who compiled spectacular information but didn’t maintain their energy throughout an extended span.
Because the creator of “The Males and the Second,” a brief narrative historical past of the presidential election of 1968, I’ve mirrored on these parallels, too. However I feel we are able to be taught extra from the variations within the circumstances of Biden’s and Johnson’s withdrawals. They illustrate the excessive hurdles that the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, now should clear, whereas additionally sounding a notice of hope for the Democratic Celebration.
Once they did it
One essential distinction between Johnson and Biden was the character and timing of their selections.
Johnson arrived at his choice to not run for a second full time period on his personal, 5 months earlier than the Democratic Nationwide Conference. It stunned everybody. Nobody anticipated this larger-than-life president – the drive behind a large slate of liberal authorities packages referred to as the Nice Society, in addition to the escalation of the Vietnam Battle – to voluntarily surrender energy.
However Johnson suffered as communist forces launched the Tet Offensive in opposition to U.S. troops in Vietnam. At residence, critics on each the appropriate and left blasted him. He realized that he might not forge a consensus in Congress. He rationalized that he might serve his last 12 months in workplace by crafting peace in Vietnam.
That alternative allowed different candidates to compete for delegates, from his loyal vice chairman, Hubert Humphrey, to anti-war senators Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy.
Biden, in contrast, renounced his nomination effectively after the primaries and only one month earlier than the conference. Furthermore, he succumbed to exterior strain from donors and social gathering leaders to depart the race, stemming from his disastrous efficiency within the June 27, 2024, debate.
Biden’s extended candidacy seems to have dictated that the social gathering anoint Harris as his successor. Can she craft a message that resonates with voters? Can she win their belief and respect?
Operating within the primaries would have supplied solutions. As a substitute, for now, these questions linger.
Delegate choice variations
One other divergence between 1968 and 2024 was the method of delegate choice.
In 1968, solely a handful of states had binding primaries, the place all delegates pledged their vote to the election’s winner. It was extra frequent for social gathering insiders to decide on delegates by state conventions and different bureaucratic means.
Humphrey campaigned by the spring and summer time of 1968, however he prevented major elections. McCarthy and Kennedy battled in these primaries, every attempting to say the mantle of the favored anti-war challenger. Then Kennedy was assassinated in June, and McCarthy didn’t rally a viable coalition. Humphrey captured the nomination by profitable the help of most Democratic officers.
By the following election cycle, the social gathering had enacted reforms for selecting delegates, together with open primaries and caucuses. That system stays in place now.
But this 12 months’s extraordinary flip of occasions signifies that Harris has bypassed that system. In contrast to Humphrey, she has to beat voters’ doubts about whether or not she is the real most well-liked candidate of the Democratic Celebration.
Celebration unity not the identical
If these distinctions from 1968 illustrate the obstacles earlier than Harris, a last distinction suggests one in all her biggest property: She has the help of nearly your complete Democratic Celebration, together with the sitting president.
Humphrey couldn’t say the identical. His personal president stored hanging him out to dry.
To draw voters in search of change, Humphrey wanted to articulate his personal place on the Vietnam Battle, however Johnson was unwilling to make concessions as a prelude to peace. He bullied Humphrey into supporting his powerful stance, which included a reluctance to halt bombings in North Vietnam.
Johnson didn’t respect Humphrey. Early within the race, LBJ privately beseeched Republican Nelson Rockefeller to run. By the overall election, Johnson appeared extra politically aligned with Republican nominee Richard Nixon than together with his personal vice chairman.
Wally McNamee/CORBIS/Corbis through Getty Photos
Vietnam was cleaving the social gathering, and Humphrey couldn’t heal the injuries. Lastly, on the very finish of September, Humphrey forged his impartial stance on the battle, pledging to halt the bombing of North Vietnam “as a suitable danger for peace.” Nevertheless it was too little, too late.
McCarthy, his fellow Minnesotan, supplied the limpest of endorsements, and never till one week earlier than Election Day. In the long run, Humphrey couldn’t unite Democratic voters, and Nixon triumphed.
Now, for all of the ideological variations amongst outstanding Democrats, the social gathering appears unified in its ambition to negate the menace they see in Donald Trump. Biden will nearly actually exhibit extra political generosity than Johnson.
In addressing the monumental activity of a late presidential run in opposition to the polarizing determine of Trump, Harris faces challenges which are distinctive in American political historical past. If she will be able to overcome them, she may keep away from the destiny of Humphrey.
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