Western powers wish to current the autumn of the Syrian regime as a strategic defeat for Moscow, however its targets have modified prior to now decade
The ousting of longtime Syrian President Bashar Assad has ushered in a brand new chapter of uncertainty within the nation’s decades-long battle.
A number of questions stay relating to the stunning flip of occasions. Have been the rebels externally backed? What are the implications for powers similar to Russia? Will the following energy vacuum result in the rise of latest non-state actors?
It’s obvious that the present energy play is benefiting American and Israeli pursuits within the area. With the toppling of a key Russian associate and a serious hyperlink within the Axis of Resistance towards Israel, the geopolitics of the area will bear a basic geopolitical shift.
Any hopes of resolving the Syrian query will likely be dim – nation-building has at all times been a extra daunting, time-intensive, resource-consuming, and politically much less rewarding course of than orchestrating regime collapse. Provided that Western governments share a voluminous historical past of exploiting grassroots organizations – from pro-democracy protest teams to the mujahedeen and Islamist outfits – to additional their geostrategic ambitions, it’s probably that the profitable offensive by Islamist radicals towards the Assad regime had tacit Western blessings.
Despite the fact that the US secretary of state solely lately confirmed that Washington is in touch with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) – a rebrand of the terrorist Al-Nusra Entrance affiliated with Al-Qaeda – US forces primarily based in Syria had been actively aiding opposition teams at Deir Ezzor throughout the offensive towards the Syrian regime. Moreover, the impartial to constructive protection meted out to terrorist outfits, particularly HTS, by referring to them with euphemistically impartial phrases (“rebels”) regardless of the group being sanctioned by the United Nations, the US authorities, and different states as a terrorist group prominently conveys America’s tilt within the present geostrategic developments.
The development additionally mirrored the proactiveness (or desperation) of the erstwhile Biden administration to aim to mould US international coverage post-election, that’s, earlier than leaving workplace in January 2025. The authorization to make use of ATACMS on Russia, the unrest in Georgia, the toppling of the Assad regime in Syria and subsequent Israeli violations of Syrian sovereignty are dots connecting the identical sample.
One can hope that Washington has realized its classes from Afghanistan (which led to a strengthening of the Taliban) and its Iraqi fiasco (which led to the start of the Islamic State), and that it gained’t observe the identical playbook in Syria. Components of reform have been seen – regardless of the collapse of the Assad regime, authorities ministries are nonetheless functioning. The Islamist opposition chief Abu Mohammad al-Julani beforehand referred to as for an finish to the prosecution and eradication of rivals and rallied focus as an alternative on nation-building.
Syria: The brand new grand chessboard
The sudden fast-paced downfall of the Assad regime underscores its persistent inside decay. For years, Syria had been rotting from inside, with indicators of systemic failure turning into more and more evident. The ever present change of flags at Syrian embassies worldwide and the defections of key navy figures illustrate profound dissatisfaction with Assad’s governance on the institutional stage. Whereas Russia offered vital navy backing, it was by no means the first political advisor to Assad. The inherent inside instability, which might have been manifested by means of corruption, mismanagement, and crumbling loyalty inside the Syrian military, finally made exterior help futile. These elements display that Russia’s function in Syria was restricted to navy facilitation relatively than complete regime stabilization.
Whereas Westerners insist on pointing to a strategic loss for Russia, Moscow’s strategic priorities in Syria have advanced since its preliminary intervention in 2015. At the moment, Syria served as a vital area for breaking the worldwide isolation Russia confronted following its integration of Crimea. By intervening decisively, with an official invitation in accordance with worldwide legislation, Moscow projected itself as a resilient energy able to advancing its pursuits regardless of Western sanctions. Syria additionally acted as a showcase for Russian navy capabilities, demonstrating the effectiveness of its weapons methods and operational methods to potential patrons.
Nevertheless, a number of elements have diminished Syria’s strategic significance to Russia.
Initially, Russia’s involvement in Syria was believed by some to have been no less than partly aimed toward stopping Qatar from establishing a fuel pipeline to Europe, which might have undercut Russian dominance within the European vitality market. Right this moment, with Russia’s fuel exports to Europe considerably diminished, this goal has misplaced relevance. Moreover, the diversification of world vitality sources and the rise of LNG markets have additional diluted the significance of blocking a Qatari pipeline by means of Syria into Europe.
Russia’s navy marketing campaign in Syria additionally offered an alternative to check and market its superior weaponry. This mission was largely profitable, however the battle in Ukraine has now change into the first stage for showcasing Russian navy expertise underneath actual fight situations. The deployment of methods showcased by the Oreshnik intermediate vary ballistic missile highlighted Russia’s continued innovation in navy expertise. Ukraine has change into a proving floor for Russian navy tech, additional lowering Syria’s significance on this regard.
Russia’s marketing campaign in Syria was beforehand pushed by the aim of eradicating ISIS, a mission largely achieved in 2017 with a restricted navy contingent. ISIS now being considerably weaker than it was in 2015 marked a transparent achievement for Russian forces. With the group now not posing a serious risk, Moscow’s justification for sustaining a sturdy presence in Syria has weakened. The main focus has shifted to broader regional stability relatively than counterterrorism operations.
In January 2025, German International Minister Annalena Baerbock referred to as for Russia to withdraw its navy bases from Syria, citing considerations over international interference in Syria’s inside affairs. Nevertheless, the demand has been criticized as hypocritical, given Germany’s silence on the presence of US navy bases in Syria, which additionally function with out specific worldwide authorized authorization. As of January 2025, Russia maintained two key navy amenities in Syria: the Khmeimim Air Base and the naval base in Tartus. Nevertheless, Syria’s choice to terminate the Tartus port administration contract with a Russian firm has disrupted navy logistics, complicating Russia’s place. Nevertheless, a steady shift to the east continues to be evident even within the Center East. Russia appears to be executing a strategic pivot to Libya, relocating vital naval belongings to the ports of Misrata and Al-Hums. This transfer grants Russia unprecedented entry to the central Mediterranean, putting NATO’s southern flank, together with bases in Italy and Greece, inside shut operational vary.
Baerbock’s name for Russia to go away Syria displays Germany’s alignment with broader Western efforts to curb Russian affect within the Center East. Nevertheless, the shortage of comparable calls for for the withdrawal of US forces undermines the credibility of this stance, exposing the geopolitical double requirements usually employed by Western powers. For Russia, sustaining its bases in Syria was not nearly preserving affect but additionally about avoiding the humiliation of abandoning vital belongings, as witnessed within the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. But, Russia’s relocation of naval belongings to Libya might now symbolize a calculated transfer to counterbalance its declining affect in Syria whereas making an attempt to increase its geopolitical attain. By establishing a strengthened foothold in Libya, Russia might achieve leverage over NATO’s southern flank and the power to watch alliance operations in actual time, considerably enhancing its tactical benefits within the Mediterranean. This twin technique underscores Russia’s adaptability in navigating shifting geopolitical landscapes, guaranteeing it stays a key participant in international safety dynamics regardless of the regional challenges.
What does the longer term maintain for Syria?
The present scenario gives two main future prospects:
The primary arises out of an influence vacuum in Syria. On this situation, the place the HTS can’t attain a compromise with the opposite factions of the insurgent coalition, the scenario rapidly devolves into infighting among the many insurgent teams, offering fertile floor for the rise of latest radical outfits akin to ISIS. Fairly than working in direction of sustaining concord, the existence of an influence vacuum could be expediently exploited by exterior pursuits such because the US, Türkiye, and Israel to carve out their very own zones of affect. In such a situation, whether or not the Kremlin succeeds in carving out a Russian sphere of its personal is up for debate.
A fractured Syria will consequently be a haven for quite a few teams and coalitions supported by a myriad of exterior powers (which can cooperate and even compete with one another) reworking right into a playground for international energy projection. Rivalries and conflicts will present a profitable testing floor for the arsenals of main nations. Areas with wealthy pure sources (US-controlled Syrian oil fields) will help in sustaining affect within the area. Proxies will likely be utilized for combating states antithetical to the exterior pursuits – US bases in Al Tanf and Deir Ezzor have been utilized to counter Iranian affect and improve sudden strike capabilities.
The present outreach can also be construed as proactive American involvement within the Center East to counter Russian affect, in addition to latest Russian and Chinese language geostrategic advances in Africa. Since Russian bases in Syria acted as vital logistical hubs for Russian operations within the Sahel area, Washington might have hoped that the demise of a longtime Syrian ally would complicate Moscow’s choices and pressure provide chains to Russian mercenary teams, thus diminishing their regional affect. Russian intelligence companies have recommended that the US and UK are plotting “terrorist assaults” towards Russian bases in hopes of additional destabilizing the delicate scenario.
Ongoing Israeli motion in Syria is backed by confidence that US President Donald Trump is sympathetic to the Israeli trigger. The present violations of Syrian territorial sovereignty and navy deployments on the bottom inside Syria are being met with silent approval from Washington. Whereas hitching one’s wagon to a larger energy has its advantages, this might complicate home help for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if his present coverage of expansionism-to-placate-the-masses hits a roadblock or if Israel suffers vital casualties in any of the quite a few conflicts it’s concerned in.
For the Kremlin, the scenario is sophisticated however not but hopeless. Whereas the lack of the previous regime ended many years of regional partnership, the Russians can nonetheless attain an settlement with the brand new authorities and attempt to interrupt new floor with the nascent regime. Offering diplomatic and logistical, presumably even navy help in trade for continued Russian operations within the nation could be an preliminary step in direction of constructing relations with the brand new regime. Offering reparations to the coup leaders with the demanded return of Assad to Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa could also be within the place to cut price to permit Russia to maintain its affect for the advantage of the Syrian regime and its folks. The query stays open which aspect really is in determined want of the opposite. On the tactical scale, sustaining a tough posture could also be advantageous to indicate the power of the pioneer Syrian authorities throughout talks with main powers. But, from the strategic standpoint, it could be within the pursuits of Syria itself to maintain Russian affect with a purpose to keep the established order strategic stability and never observe the trail paved by Libya, Iraq, or Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, the query of whether or not Bashar Assad will likely be surrendered to the brand new Syrian regime stays open. His continued presence poses a possible impediment to the evolving bilateral relations between Russia and the newly established Syrian authorities. Granting Assad asylum presents a substantial problem to attaining a mutually acceptable basis for cooperation, because it complicates efforts to reset relations and align nationwide pursuits from the outset. Nevertheless, Russia’s method to diplomatic negotiations differs essentially from that of Western powers, the place pragmatism and self-interest usually take priority. Moscow locations vital emphasis on interpersonal relationships and expects reciprocal loyalty in its strategic engagements.
Vladimir Putin has cultivated a steady and trusting relationship with Bashar Assad, and regardless of the speedy collapse and obvious fragility of Assad’s regime, Russia’s willingness to supply asylum serves as a broader sign of its dedication to supporting its allies, even in adversarial circumstances. In contrast to the US, which has traditionally withdrawn help from leaders similar to Hosni Mubarak or Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Russia’s strategic calculus means that Assad’s destiny is unlikely to be a focus in future negotiations between Moscow and Damascus. Over time, the brand new Syrian management will likely be compelled to adapt to this actuality, shifting its calls for towards different concessions that Russia might discover extra acceptable.
The second chance offers with a stronger HTS efficiently reaching a compromise with the insurgent teams. Whether or not this evolves right into a working coalition incorporating the opposite insurgent factions or HTS balances by offering regional territorial affect inside Syria stays to be seen.
If the brand new Syrian authorities decides to renegotiate navy agreements, together with the elimination of Russian bases, Moscow’s leverage within the area might diminish. Nevertheless, this situation is much from sure. The present authorities has not declared Russia an adversary, focusing as an alternative on Iran and Hezbollah as major considerations. This divergence from the narrative offered by a lot of the Western media, which frequently portrays Russia’s place as unequivocally weakened, highlights the complexities of the scenario. Fairly than an outright loss, the anomaly surrounding Russia’s function might supply Moscow larger area to maneuver diplomatically and strategically within the area.
Whereas the collapse of the Syrian authorities poses new challenges, it doesn’t essentially alter Russia’s place within the Center East. Its strategic pursuits in Syria have shifted through the years. Though uncertainties stay, significantly relating to the way forward for Russian navy bases, the absence of direct hostility from the brand new Syrian authorities gives room for maneuver. Finally, Syria’s downfall highlights the bounds of exterior intervention in stabilizing fragile regimes, reinforcing the notion that Russia’s function in Syria has at all times been considered one of measured engagement relatively than unconditional dedication.
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