Their first oblique talks in years supply a diplomatic opening, however deep distrust and navy preparations threaten progress
The USA and Iran have reopened high-level diplomatic talks over Tehran’s nuclear program, holding their first oblique negotiations in years. The assembly befell in Muscat, Oman, with Iranian International Minister Abbas Araghchi main Tehran’s delegation and US Particular Presidential Envoy Steve Witcoff representing Washington. This marks the very best degree of engagement between the 2 nations since 2018.
The talks have been performed by way of shuttle diplomacy: the 2 delegations have been housed in separate rooms, with Oman’s International Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi appearing because the go-between.
Following the session, Araghchi described the assembly as a constructive first step. “For a primary spherical, the discussions have been constructive,” he stated in an interview with Iranian state tv. “They have been held in a relaxed, respectful surroundings, free from inflammatory language. Each side appeared dedicated to shifting the method ahead towards a workable settlement.”
The White Home echoed this sentiment in a quick assertion, describing the talks as “very constructive and constructive.” It emphasised that Witcoff had been instructed to pursue diplomacy wherever attainable and work towards resolving disagreements by way of dialogue.
President Donald Trump, when requested concerning the talks by reporters, supplied a guarded endorsement. “I believe they’re going nicely,” he stated. “However nothing issues till it’s performed. I don’t like speaking about it an excessive amount of. Nonetheless, it’s shifting alongside.”
Diplomacy with out belief
Regardless of his aggressive rhetoric and an expanded US navy presence within the area, Trump has continued to specific an curiosity in diplomacy. He introduced the resumption of talks whereas seated beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – an particularly vital second, as Netanyahu doubtless anticipated a stronger present of assist for attainable navy motion towards Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
As an alternative, Trump emphasised the necessity for negotiation, signaling both a strategic pause or probably a broader plan that prioritizes political leverage over fast confrontation.
In Tehran, officers have responded with skepticism. Though Iran has by no means completely dominated out dialogue with the West and had hoped for a diplomatic thaw, state-affiliated media outlet NourNews framed Trump’s feedback as a “psychological operation” geared toward shaping a story that advantages Washington each at residence and overseas.
Iran, for its half, is approaching talks with a realistic however agency set of calls for. Officers have outlined clear circumstances that should be met earlier than any deal could be reached. Chief amongst them: lifting key sanctions – notably these affecting the vitality and banking sectors – unfreezing Iranian property held in overseas banks (notably in Europe and East Asia), and securing agency ensures towards future US or Israeli navy strikes.
These calls for mirror deep-rooted mistrust. From Tehran’s perspective, the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal – regardless of Iran’s compliance and its acknowledgement by US allies just like the UK, Germany, and France – stands as proof that Washington’s commitments can’t be trusted.
Whether or not the US is ready to fulfill Iran’s phrases stays unsure. Trump has lengthy portrayed himself as a pacesetter who can strike offers and keep away from drawn-out wars, a story that performs nicely together with his political base. However his monitor report with Iran suggests in any other case. The US has repeatedly walked away from agreements with out significant penalties, reinforcing the Iranian view that verbal and even signed commitments from Washington should not strategically dependable.
This hole between rhetorical diplomacy and concrete ensures is now entrance and heart. Tehran insists on binding, measurable phrases. However from Washington’s perspective, providing sweeping concessions may very well be seen as a lack of leverage. That places either side at an deadlock: Iran is asking for assurances the US is reluctant to provide, whereas the US expects compromise from a rustic whose regional affect has diminished.
Iran’s negotiating place has certainly weakened. A decade in the past, it may depend on a robust community of regional proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas, and varied Shiite teams in Iraq and Syria. At the moment, a lot of these property have been degraded or sidelined. Whereas Iran nonetheless holds sway in Iraq, even Baghdad is now pursuing a extra balanced overseas coverage that features nearer ties with the US, Gulf nations, and Türkiye, additional limiting Tehran’s regional attain.
Briefly, Iran is making maximalist calls for from a place of lowered leverage. That makes it unlikely Washington will grant vital concessions within the close to time period. Each side are caught: Iran is pushing for ensures the US doesn’t need – or isn’t ready – to provide, whereas the US expects flexibility from an more and more remoted adversary.
Which raises the looming query: What if talks collapse?
Conflict eventualities
We can not utterly dismiss the idea that Trump could also be utilizing diplomacy to set the stage for a navy confrontation. His administration’s previous actions – exiting the 2015 deal, ordering the assassination of Basic Qassem Soleimani, increasing sanctions, and reinforcing US navy positions within the area – have persistently undercut possibilities for dialogue. So whereas these talks could also be real, they may additionally serve to justify future navy motion if diplomacy fails.
Analysts imagine Washington is contemplating two principal choices for hanging Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, particularly in Natanz and Fordow. One state of affairs includes a joint operation with the Israeli Air Pressure. The opposite envisions a solo Israeli strike. In both case, precision airstrikes involving superior munitions are anticipated.
Iran’s air protection programs are unlikely to repel such an assault – particularly if the US deploys B-2 stealth bombers or GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs. A full-scale strike may significantly harm each above-ground and underground services.
Traditionally, Iran has relied on uneven retaliation, concentrating on adversaries by way of non-conventional means. However its capacity to reply this fashion has eroded. Hezbollah has sustained main losses amid stepped-up Israeli navy campaigns, and Syria – as soon as a linchpin of Iran’s technique below Bashar al-Assad – has successfully fallen below the affect of Tehran’s rivals.
Given this shift, Iran would doubtless rely primarily by itself assets in any counter-strike. Whereas extra remoted than earlier than, it nonetheless wields a various array of instruments: ballistic missiles, assault drones, cyber capabilities, and regional proxy operations.
One possible type of retaliation can be missile and drone strikes on Israel. That’s not simply hypothesis – Tehran executed restricted however unprecedented assaults in 2024. In a single case, it launched roughly 200 missiles, a few of which bypassed Israeli air defenses and hit Nevatim Air Base. These actions signaled Iran’s intent and capability to reply forcefully. Whereas Israel maintains one of many world’s most superior air protection programs, such assaults may nonetheless carry severe political and strategic penalties.
American bases within the area are additionally potential targets. The US maintains a sprawling navy footprint throughout the Center East – together with in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia – with roughly 40,000 troops stationed there as of late 2024. These services have already been hit by Iran-backed teams. In January, a drone launched from Iraqi territory breached US defenses in Jordan, killing three service members. Iran additionally retaliated for Soleimani’s killing in 2020 by launching direct missile strikes on two American bases in Iraq, leading to dozens of concussions amongst personnel.
In comparison with Israeli targets, US bases are typically nearer to Iran and its regional proxies – and fewer well-protected – making them enticing targets for each typical and uneven retaliation. Nonetheless, hanging US forces carries far larger dangers, doubtlessly triggering an amazing American response.
In step with its uneven playbook, Iran may additionally search to use strain by way of regional companions. Gulf nations equivalent to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait – key logistical and navy allies of the US – may discover themselves within the crosshairs. Iran has already warned these governments that permitting American forces to make use of their territory or airspace can be seen as an act of battle. Nevertheless, attacking these international locations instantly would carry excessive stakes, notably in mild of Iran’s latest diplomatic thaw with Riyadh in early 2023. Ought to Iran pursue this path, it’s extra more likely to focus its retaliation on US property relatively than Arab infrastructure.
One other ingredient in Tehran’s deterrence playbook is the risk to shut the Strait of Hormuz – a important choke level for world oil and LNG shipments. Round 20% of the world’s oil exports and greater than 30% of all liquefied pure fuel passes by way of this slender hall. Any blockade may trigger vitality costs to spike and throw world markets into turmoil.
Nonetheless, such a transfer may backfire. Iran’s financial system relies upon closely on oil and fuel exports, and disrupting that movement would reduce into its personal revenues. A closure would additionally threat damaging relations with key financial companions – particularly China, the most important purchaser of Iranian oil. In contrast to the US, China’s vitality safety is instantly tied to Hormuz’s stability, and any disruption may very well be seen as a risk to Beijing’s nationwide pursuits.
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At this level, all eyes are on whether or not the talks can achieve even modest traction. A minimal diplomatic breakthrough may delay – and even forestall – the sorts of escalatory measures now being mentioned.
In a area the place the stakes are as excessive because the mistrust is deep, even small steps towards diplomacy is perhaps a best-case state of affairs – for now.
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