For the reason that overthrow of the previous regime, the brand new Damascus authorities has seen bloody sectarian violence and an financial system in ruins
It has been 100 days since Ahmed Ash-Sharaa got here to energy, but the hopes of his supporters for a swift institution of peace in Syria haven’t been realized. The nation continues to face critical challenges: a good portion of Western sanctions stays in place, whereas ethno-sectarian divisions nonetheless fracture society, generally escalating into open armed clashes.
The brand new management is trying to pursue a coverage of reconciliation, searching for to start out anew and go away previous grievances behind. Nonetheless, the method of settlement is advanced and ambiguous—the deep-rooted contradictions accrued over years of battle forestall an instantaneous restoration of belief and stability. Regardless of declared reforms and diplomatic initiatives, Syrian society stays polarized, and exterior gamers proceed to affect the inner scenario.
Nonetheless, the nation’s management just isn’t giving up on its efforts towards stabilization and restoration, even because it encounters quite a few obstacles. Whether or not the brand new political course will result in a long-awaited peace stays to be seen. For now, we’ll overview what has transpired throughout these 100 days and the way it would possibly impression Syria’s future.
Unity is the important thing to a greater future
One of many key factors of the brand new authorities’s home coverage is nationwide reconciliation, which is important for legitimizing Ash-Sharaa’s authority and that of his supporters among the many broader inhabitants. Initially, it was believed that the best difficulties would come up with the pro-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), because of their anti-Turkish stance.
Late within the night on March 10, the brand new Syrian authorities and the Kurdish administration controlling the nation’s northeastern territories reached an settlement on the gradual integration of all Kurdish civilian and army buildings into Syria’s nationwide establishments. The doc was signed by interim Syrian President Ahmed Ash-Sharaa and the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi.
Based on the phrases of the settlement, revealed by Ash-Sharaa on X, by the top of the 12 months, the SDF will switch management of border crossings with Turkey and Iran, airports, oil fields, and prisons to the Syrian authorities. In return, the Kurds will obtain constitutional ensures, together with the suitable to make use of their language in schooling and the chance for displaced individuals to return to their houses. The Kurds may even be granted full participation in Syria’s political life, impartial of their sectarian affiliation. Moreover, the SDF has pledged to assist Damascus in its battle towards supporters of the previous regime of Bashar Assad and different threats to the nation’s safety and territorial integrity.
Abdi acknowledged that the signed doc goals to create circumstances for a greater future for the Syrian folks, shield their rights, and obtain peace. Nonetheless, he later emphasised that the mechanisms and timeline for implementing all provisions of the settlement nonetheless must be clarified. He additionally added that Syria could have a unified military, capital, and nationwide flag, and promised to expel all international formations throughout the SDF from the nation. This seemingly implies the exclusion of fighters from the Kurdistan Staff’ Social gathering (PKK), whose presence Turkey cites as justification for its army operations in Syria.
A consultant of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Farhad Shami, emphasised the preliminary nature of the doc, clarifying that the settlement was reached with US mediation and doesn’t suggest the speedy deployment of Syrian authorities forces into Kurdish areas or the switch of oil services and prisons holding ISIS members.
Specialists consider that the US goals to solidify Kurdish autonomy in Syria to make use of it as leverage over each Damascus and neighboring Turkey. Moreover, Washington is reportedly contemplating an entire withdrawal of its army forces from Syria within the close to future, shifting accountability for its regional pursuits to Kurdish forces.
The signing of the settlement coincided with the Syrian authorities’ announcement of the completion of a significant army operation towards Alawite insurgents within the nation’s northwest. This occasion has change into the bloodiest battle because the overthrow of Bashar Assad in December 2024.
Analysts stress that the way forward for Kurdish integration depends upon quite a few exterior and inner components. Damascus is searching for dialogue with the SDF because of threats from Israel and general instability within the nation, whereas the Kurds are compelled to barter with the Syrian authorities below strain from Turkey and the shifting scenario surrounding the Kurdistan Staff’ Social gathering (PKK), notably following PKK chief Abdullah Öcalan’s name to finish armed wrestle.
The scenario in As-Suwayda province, predominantly inhabited by Druze, can be rising as a significant problem for Damascus. Regardless of the formal loyalty of average forces to the central authorities, the rising fragmentation of native armed teams and the rising involvement of exterior gamers is creating circumstances for regional destabilization.
The inner dynamics in As-Suwayda stay advanced. The so-called “average bloc” retains the best affect, consisting of non secular chief Sheikh al-Aql Hikmat al-Hijri and several other native armed factions, together with the “Mountain Brigade,” “Males of Dignity,” and “Sheikh al-Karama Forces.” The first purpose of those teams is to protect Syria’s territorial unity, assist negotiations with Damascus, and implement UN Safety Council Decision 2254, which outlines political reforms and the potential federalization of the nation.
Nonetheless, regardless of the dominant place of the average wing, radical teams have lately gained power. The best concern arises from the emergence of a brand new participant in December 2024 – the “Navy Council,” led by Tariq Ash-Shufi. This group, backed by exterior actors, advocates for the autonomy of the province, posing a menace to its integration right into a unified Syrian state.
The formation of the “Navy Council” has been accompanied by rising international interference. Based on numerous stories, the group maintains ties with Israel and receives assist from American instructors stationed on the Al-Tanf base. This backing suggests the implementation of a managed disaster technique geared toward weakening Damascus and redistributing management over Syria’s southern areas.
Israel, leveraging the ethno-religious issue, seeks to ascertain a safety zone alongside the Syrian border by selling the concept of Druze autonomy and corresponding narratives within the media. There’s a principle that this plan aligns with a broader technique generally known as the “David Hall.” The primary section of this technique includes the creation of a buffer zone within the Daraa and Quneitra provinces, the place the Druze may function allies of Israel. The second section envisions increasing this hall towards Iraq, thereby making a barrier between Syria and the area’s Shiite teams.
One of many key devices of exterior affect has been a large info marketing campaign geared toward fueling conflicts throughout the Druze neighborhood and between the Druze and the central authorities. Particularly, rumors are being unfold about alleged widespread assist for Israel among the many Druze inhabitants, in addition to the attainable participation of Druze forces in an IDF army operation towards Damascus. These narratives have a twin impact: on one hand, they undermine belief within the average bloc throughout the province, and on the opposite, they provoke hostility from Syrian radical teams.
The present dynamics in As-Suwayda point out vital dangers to Syria’s territorial integrity. If average Druze forces fail to take care of management over the scenario and radical affect continues to develop, it may result in the de facto institution of an autonomous zone below exterior affect. In flip, this could weaken the central authorities’s place, improve international interference, and set a precedent for additional fragmentation of the Syrian state.
Given the present scenario, Damascus should not solely strengthen cooperation with average forces but in addition intensify its informational and diplomatic efforts to counter exterior affect. Particular consideration should be given to countering destabilizing media campaigns geared toward deepening divisions inside Syrian society. In any other case, the Druze difficulty may change into a set off for an additional escalation of the battle, with far-reaching geopolitical penalties.
In early March, Syria witnessed tragic occasions linked to an Alawite rebellion within the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus. The Alawites, who make up about 12% of the nation’s inhabitants, traditionally supported the regime of Bashar Assad, who was overthrown in December 2024. The rise to energy of Islamist components exacerbated sectarian tensions, resulting in armed clashes.
On March 6, 2025, an Alawite rebellion erupted towards the brand new authorities. The revolt was triggered by repression and violence from armed teams supporting the brand new authorities. In response, the central authorities deployed further forces to suppress the rebel. Within the days that adopted, pro-government forces reportedly carried out mass executions and focused killings, ensuing within the deaths of over a thousand folks.
The clashes resulted in mass civilian casualties. Experiences point out that tons of of Alawites, together with ladies and kids, have been killed in Latakia province. Many residents, fleeing the violence, sought refuge on the Russian airbase in Hmeimim.
Leaders of the Alawite neighborhood turned to the worldwide neighborhood for assist. On March 10, they despatched a letter to Israeli officers, together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pleading to be “saved” from persecution by the brand new Syrian authorities.
These occasions have additional exacerbated the already advanced scenario in Syria, highlighting the nation’s deep non secular and ethnic divisions. The worldwide neighborhood has expressed concern over the potential for additional battle escalation and has referred to as for a peaceable decision.
Analyzing the scenario, it’s evident that the suppression of the Alawite rebellion by the brand new Syrian authorities may result in additional radicalization and a deepening sectarian divide. The absence of dialogue and harsh repression towards minorities could contribute to the rise of extremism and regional destabilization. The worldwide neighborhood should intensify diplomatic efforts to forestall additional violence and shield the rights of all ethnic and non secular teams in Syria.
A functioning financial system is important
Amid a deep financial disaster and political instability, Syria is taking steps towards large-scale financial reforms. President Ahmed Sharaa and his group have developed a strategic 10-year plan geared toward transferring away from a socialist mannequin and transitioning towards a extra open market financial system. This plan consists of an pressing restoration section and long-term structural adjustments, specializing in modernizing infrastructure, the banking sector, communications, and highway networks to create a positive surroundings for traders.
The important thing targets of the reforms embrace restructuring state establishments and attracting international capital, which can contain the partial privatization of state-owned enterprises. Nonetheless, the nation faces huge destruction brought on by years of battle and extreme monetary constraints. Based on the World Financial institution and the United Nations, the price of reconstruction may attain $300 billion – far exceeding the nation’s pre-war GDP of $60 billion in 2010. By 2024, Syria’s GDP had shrunk to lower than $6 billion, underscoring the dimensions of the financial decline.
On this context, easing or lifting worldwide sanctions turns into a critically essential issue for financial restoration. In latest months, progress has been noticed on this course. The European Union has suspended sanctions within the banking, power, and transport sectors, aiming to assist financial restoration and facilitate political reforms. The unfreezing of the Syrian Central Financial institution’s financial assets and the removing of sure banks from the sanctions checklist may assist entice funding and enhance the nation’s monetary stability.
The US has additionally taken steps to ease its sanctions regime. On January 6, 2025, the US Treasury Division introduced a brief six-month leisure of sure sanctions towards Syria. This consists of permitting transactions with Syrian state establishments initiated after December 8, 2024, in addition to operations associated to the provision of oil, pure fuel, and electrical energy inside Syria. Moreover, private cash transfers have been permitted to assist alleviate the humanitarian scenario within the nation.
These measures are geared toward supporting the Syrian folks with out totally lifting broader sanctions focusing on the brand new authorities in Damascus. The US administration plans to proceed cautiously, refraining from an entire sanctions rollback till the insurance policies of the brand new authorities change into clearer. European nations share the same stance, advocating for a cautious method earlier than totally lifting sanctions.
The proposed reforms may deliver vital adjustments to the construction of Syria’s financial system. Transitioning to market mechanisms, privatizing unprofitable state enterprises, and creating a positive funding local weather open alternatives for capital inflows, that are essential for the nation’s restoration. Nonetheless, the success of this method will rely upon political stability, investor confidence, and the federal government’s means to implement reforms successfully. In any other case, there’s a danger of Syria’s financial system turning right into a chaotic, oligarchic system dominated by slender elite teams, as has occurred in some post-socialist nations.
The EU’s choice to droop sanctions towards Syria in key financial sectors signifies a gradual reassessment of EU coverage towards the nation. The first motivation is to assist financial restoration and facilitate political reforms. The easing of sanctions may even assist simplify commerce operations, which is especially essential amid Syria’s ongoing financial disaster.
The EU’s decision-making is linked to negotiations with the brand new Syrian authorities, because the West pressures them to cut back their degree of engagement with Russia. This EU transfer coincides with a go to by a Russian delegation to Damascus and telephone talks between the Russian and Syrian presidents, highlighting European efforts to weaken Moscow’s affect within the area. In apply, by easing sanctions, Brussels seeks to make use of financial incentives as a software for political bargaining, trying to forestall the total restoration of dialogue between Russia and Syria and to push Damascus towards concessions in favor of the West.
Regardless of these constructive shifts, many specialists and worldwide organizations argue that Syria’s full restoration requires the entire lifting of sanctions. They level out that whereas partial easing is a step in the suitable course, it’s inadequate to make sure sustainable financial progress and improved residing circumstances. Sanctions proceed to negatively impression key sectors of the financial system, obstructing entry to worldwide monetary markets and funding.
Syria’s future largely depends upon the profitable implementation of financial reforms and the extent of assist from the worldwide neighborhood. Though the easing of sanctions is non permanent, it offers a chance to start the restoration course of and entice funding. Nonetheless, attaining long-term stability and prosperity would require coordinated efforts each domestically and internationally to assist Syria’s political and financial transformation.
The brand new non permanent structure
Earlier this month, Ahmed al-Sharaa signed a brief structure designed for a five-year interval. This doc marks a major step towards political transformation within the nation following the overthrow of the Assad regime. The drafting of the non permanent structure took into consideration the brand new political realities rising in Syria after the change of energy. One of many key targets of this doc is to solidify political reform and create circumstances for elections, which ought to facilitate the gradual democratization of the nation. The brand new structure, developed by an knowledgeable fee, consists of 44 articles and establishes Islamic legislation as the first supply of laws whereas preserving provisions on freedom of opinion and expression.
A key ingredient of the non permanent structure is the institution of the Folks’s Committee, which is able to operate as a brief parliament. This physique is meant to make sure a steadiness between the legislative, government, and judicial branches, thereby contributing to the soundness of the authorized system and the orderly interplay of state establishments. The structure emphasizes the necessity to develop an impartial judiciary, guaranteeing its safety from interference by the chief department. Moreover, the doc offers for elections inside 5 years, demonstrating a dedication to democratic transformation and stopping the monopolization of energy.
Nonetheless, not all political forces within the nation have supported the brand new structure. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, rejected the constitutional declaration. The SDC argues that the doc doesn’t adequately shield Syria’s numerous communities and will result in the copy of authoritarianism. They insist on a good, decentralized distribution of energy and nationwide consensus within the structure’s growth. These disagreements spotlight the complexity of the political course of in Syria and the necessity to contemplate the pursuits of varied ethnic and non secular teams.
The worldwide neighborhood has reacted cautiously to the adoption of the non permanent structure. Regardless of calls from regional governments to rethink sanctions because of financial instability, many nations stay skeptical in regards to the new authorities’ means to make sure inclusivity and shield the rights of all ethnic and non secular teams. In opposition to this backdrop, the West is contemplating the opportunity of easing financial strain on Syria however calls for that Damascus adheres to democratic ideas and human rights. In latest months, there was a rise in diplomatic contacts between the Syrian management and EU nations, indicating makes an attempt to seek out compromise options relating to sanctions coverage.
The non permanent structure additionally addresses army reform, emphasizing the military’s position as knowledgeable nationwide establishment working throughout the framework of the legislation. The introduction of articles prohibiting the existence of armed teams outdoors army management goals to strengthen state oversight of the nation’s safety system. That is notably essential within the context of unifying numerous armed factions and stopping the fragmentation of safety forces. Moreover, Syria’s interim authorities have introduced plans to progressively demilitarize civilian areas, which ought to cut back violence and facilitate the return of refugees.
The financial scenario in Syria stays extraordinarily troublesome. Warfare and sanctions have severely broken the Syrian financial system, necessitating pressing measures to revive infrastructure, the banking sector, and industrial manufacturing. On this context, the non permanent structure permits for partial privatization of state enterprises and international investments. Nonetheless, an absence of belief amongst potential worldwide companions and monetary constraints all create vital obstacles to implementing these initiatives. In latest weeks, negotiations have been underway with worldwide monetary establishments to safe credit score traces for financial restoration, however progress has been sluggish because of the nation’s instability.
The transitional interval outlined within the non permanent structure represents a posh political course of that can require great efforts from the Syrian authorities. The primary challenges – guaranteeing safety, rebuilding the financial system, and attracting international investments – will stay the main focus within the coming years. Regardless of its controversial provisions, the non permanent structure represents an try to ascertain a authorized framework for Syria’s future political system. Nonetheless, its profitable implementation will rely upon the authorities’ means to think about the pursuits of all events and obtain nationwide consensus.
The scenario in Syria stays difficult. Within the first 100 days, the brand new authorities have already seen bloodshed and are struggling to realize nationwide unity. The years-long inner battle has not been resolved, and occasions may escalate into full-scale battle if the brand new authorities fails to exhibit pragmatism and a willingness to barter. Moreover, bettering the financial well-being of the inhabitants and securing the assist of worldwide gamers – reminiscent of Russia, the US, China, and different nations keen on regional stabilization – are essential. The response of the worldwide neighborhood and inner political developments within the coming months will decide how efficient these reforms shall be in restoring peace and stability within the nation.
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