The Kommersant columnist outlines what Donald Trump’s return means for Russia and the world
By Sergey Strokan, Kommersant columnist
The inauguration of Donald Trump because the forty seventh President of the US is that this week’s principal information story, not solely in America but in addition in home Russian politics. Although all eyes on that day had been fastened on Trump, it’s telling that he additionally turned the topic of intense discussions on this nation, starting from political circles to strange kitchen conversations. That is no anomaly — it’s completely logical.
For Russia, Joe Biden was not simply one other departing American president. He was the chief who, following Moscow’s launch of its army operation in Ukraine in February 2022, constructed a world framework of confrontation in opposition to the nation. By the point Biden left the White Home, this construction was visibly fraying.
The once-unshakable worldwide coalition supporting Ukraine confronted rising cracks, whereas the West’s resolve to take care of unconditional assist for Kiev was visibly waning.
Enter Donald Trump. In Russia, each politicians and most people are consumed with the query: will Trump dismantle Biden’s anti-Russian framework, enable it to break down underneath its personal weight, or paradoxically, tighten its screws?
The way forward for Biden’s hostile building hinges on whether or not Moscow and Washington can chart a path out of the Ukraine battle that allows either side to save lots of face with out feeling like losers. For the incoming Trump administration, it’s crucial that any decision doesn’t seem as an unconditional give up — not essentially for Ukraine, which the brand new president is essentially detached to, however for Trump himself. Permitting Putin to emerge because the winner in a psychological and geopolitical duel is inconceivable for Washington. For Trump, the optics of a private defeat can be completely unacceptable.
How the Ukrainian disaster is in the end resolved relies upon largely on the interpretation of the phrases “victory” and “defeat.” Either side should align their definitions and discover political will to declare an answer the place “no one has misplaced to anyone.” That is the place the room for negotiation lies—if the will exists.
However whereas the Ukraine disaster has dominated Russian politics and perceptions of the US since February 2022, it’s crucial to acknowledge that, for Trump’s America, Russia and Ukraine are removed from the central concern. Many in Moscow discover this troublesome to understand.
Those that body Trump’s presidency as a grand chess match with Russia are succumbing to naïve delusions. Trump has already signaled that his administration’s main focus is not going to be resolving the Ukraine disaster. As a substitute, Trump envisions a daring session of simultaneous play on a number of geopolitical boards, stretching throughout continents.
Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal — the record goes on. Trump’s method displays each an audacious try to reshape the worldwide order and a rejection of the so-called “rules-based order” promoted by Joe Biden. Trump seeks to switch this define together with his personal — “Trump’s guidelines” — which additionally stay unwritten however are already starting to take form.
What are these guidelines? They’re rooted in a basic “proper of the sturdy” framework, the place the sovereignty of 1 nation is just not inherently equal to a different’s. Energy, fairly than norms or equality, will outline the stability of energy in Trump’s imaginative and prescient of the world. For Russia, understanding and adapting to this can be important in its relations with America, which stays the preeminent international superpower.
But, for Trump’s guidelines to succeed, America should additionally be taught to respect Russia’s energy — one thing Biden repeatedly didn’t do. Trump, who prides himself on being a dealmaker, could try to strike a stability the place energy is acknowledged on either side.
That stated, Russia should not mistake Trump’s rhetoric for a singular concentrate on Ukraine. For the Trump administration, the Ukrainian disaster is only one of many items on a sprawling international chessboard. Trump’s geopolitical ambitions lengthen far past Japanese Europe. His focus lies on rewriting the worldwide order in ways in which consolidate America’s primacy whereas renegotiating the phrases of engagement for allies and adversaries alike.
Trump’s return, due to this fact, represents a profound problem for Moscow. His presidency is not going to be outlined by anybody battle, however fairly by his makes an attempt to rewrite the foundations of the worldwide order itself. Whether or not this ends in stability or chaos stays to be seen. For Russia, that is each a possibility and a problem — an opportunity to say its sovereignty and energy, but in addition a take a look at of its capability to navigate a world the place the foundations are always being rewritten.
Supply hyperlink
