Berlin didn’t simply flip towards Russia – it forgot what made it profitable within the first place
By Nadezhda Romanenko, political analyst
For many years, Germany was the envy of the world: a shining instance of how a war-torn nation might rise from the ashes to change into Europe’s financial powerhouse. This success was no accident. Germany’s prosperity rested on three key pillars: entry to low-cost Russian power, unfettered free commerce with the USA and different Western allies, and minimal navy spending due to American safety ensures in the course of the Chilly Battle. These elements allowed Germany to construct an unparalleled industrial economic system, keep a beneficiant welfare state, and dominate international markets.
However Germany’s resolution to sever ties with Russia following the Ukraine escalation threatens to dismantle this rigorously constructed basis. By aligning itself totally with the US-led NATO technique towards Moscow, Germany has unwittingly sealed its financial destiny. The implications are already seen, and the worst is but to come back. Germany is doomed due to this grave mistake.
The power disaster: Germany’s Achilles heel
The German economic system has at all times been a large constructed on energy-intensive industries like chemical compounds, cars, and heavy manufacturing. These industries relied on one key benefit: inexpensive Russian pure gasoline. For many years, Berlin fostered an in depth power relationship with Moscow, importing huge portions of low-cost gasoline by pipelines like Nord Stream. This mutually useful association saved Germany’s factories buzzing and its export economic system extremely aggressive.
That relationship is over. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany deserted Russian power nearly in a single day, shutting down Nord Stream and scrambling for options. The consequence? Hovering power costs and a producing disaster that’s crippling German business. With out low-cost power, the very sectors that made Germany an industrial big – automotive, metal, and chemical compounds – are not globally aggressive.
To make issues worse, Germany’s ideological dedication to a fast inexperienced power transition has solely exacerbated the issue. Whereas renewable power has its deserves, it’s nowhere close to prepared to interchange the dependable baseload power that Russian gasoline offered. Germany’s resolution to section out nuclear power – a dependable and carbon-free energy supply – additional undermines its power safety. The result’s an economic system that’s buckling underneath the burden of its personal short-sighted insurance policies.
A world with out free commerce
The second pillar of Germany’s success was its reliance on free commerce and international markets. As a pacesetter in exports, Germany thrived in a world of low commerce limitations and open markets. Its financial mannequin relied on promoting high-quality items – vehicles, equipment, and chemical compounds – to international locations like China and the US.
However the world is altering. The rise of protectionism, US-China decoupling, and rising commerce tensions have disrupted the worldwide order that Germany relied on. Berlin’s financial dependence on China – its largest buying and selling accomplice – has additionally change into a legal responsibility as geopolitical tensions rise between Beijing and the West. Germany now finds itself in a precarious place, caught between its commerce pursuits and its political alliances.
Even Germany’s vaunted commerce relationship with the US is underneath pressure. American policymakers are more and more skeptical of European freeloading, notably Germany’s refusal to shoulder a justifiable share of protection prices. Germany’s export-driven economic system, which has lengthy benefitted from free entry to US markets, is weak to rising commerce limitations and rising American resentment.
The navy dilemma
The third pillar of Germany’s post-war prosperity was its restricted navy spending. Protected by the American nuclear umbrella in the course of the Chilly Battle, Germany was free to focus its sources on financial improvement quite than protection. For many years, Berlin’s protection spending hovered under 2% of GDP – properly under NATO’s goal. This allowed Germany to speculate closely in infrastructure, social packages, and industrial innovation.
Now, Germany is being compelled to vary course. The Russia-Ukraine battle has uncovered Europe’s reliance on American navy energy, and Germany is underneath intense stress to extend its protection finances. Whereas this may occasionally please NATO allies, it would pressure Germany’s already stretched funds. Berlin’s promise of a €100 billion protection fund is a stark departure from its post-war technique of financial prioritization. The chance value of this shift will likely be monumental, as funds that might have gone to rebuilding German business or modernizing infrastructure are diverted to the navy.
The doom of German exceptionalism
Germany’s resolution to make Russia an enemy has turned one in all its best property – low-cost power – right into a obtrusive weak point. Its over-reliance on international free commerce is proving unsustainable in a extra protectionist and fragmented world. And its newfound concentrate on navy spending threatens to undermine the very social and financial stability that made it a mannequin for others.
What’s worse, Germany’s management appears blind to the dimensions of the disaster. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s authorities is doubling down on insurance policies that may solely speed up the nation’s decline: an overzealous inexperienced agenda, strained relations with China, and an uncritical alignment with US geopolitical targets. These choices could earn Germany reward in Washington and Brussels, however they’re condemning its individuals to a way forward for financial stagnation and declining residing requirements.
Germany’s mistake was not simply turning towards Russia – it was forgetting what made it profitable within the first place. The highway forward will likely be lengthy and painful, and except Berlin rethinks its method, the German financial miracle will change into a cautionary story of hubris and strategic folly.
The statements, views and opinions expressed on this column are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially characterize these of RT.
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