On June 28, Iran will maintain presidential elections following the tragic loss of life of the nation’s former president Ebrahim Raisi in a aircraft crash on Could 19.
Some consider that the president doesn’t have any actual energy within the Islamic Republic, however this isn’t true. The Iranian president doesn’t have nice affect over international points such because the nation’s international coverage, nationwide safety technique, or the nuclear program. Nonetheless, he largely determines Iran’s home coverage. He appoints the Council of Ministers and the heads of the principle state establishments, and this straight impacts the lives of the Iranian folks.
The president can be chargeable for fixing financial issues. In reality, the decision of financial points brought on by sanctions in opposition to Iran might be a measure of success for the brand new administration.
For instance, former president Raisi got here to energy in opposition to the background of the financial failure of his predecessor, reformist Hassan Rouhani, and the collapse of the nuclear deal. The results of Rouhani’s two phrases in workplace was failure on all counts: the nation achieved zero financial progress and confronted file inflation (the best in 60 years), a 700% improve within the greenback trade charge, the most important social hole in ten years, and the biggest inventory market decline in half a century.
The candidates and the foundations
Six candidates had been allowed to take part within the presidential elections. 5 of them characterize the conservative camp, with the most well-liked candidate being the present speaker of the parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
There may be additionally one reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian. That is an attention-grabbing choice, since in recent times, the position of the reformists has been marginalized as a result of their failures in governing the nation. Nonetheless, Pezeshkian employed former international minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as his chief nationwide safety adviser. Many specialists took this as an indication that, if Pezeshkian wins, he’ll take a course in the direction of bettering relations with the West in an effort to carry a few of the sanctions and enhance Iran’s financial system.
Nonetheless, such rhetoric is at the moment not very fashionable in Iran. Ghalibaf’s plan is way more clear. By the best way, he isn’t a consultant of ultra-religious forces and calls himself a neoconservative. Ghalibaf’s reasonable views and in depth expertise as mayor of Tehran give him an necessary benefit as a candidate. Furthermore, Ghalibaf has in depth ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which signifies that he has no main contradictions with Iran’s key nationwide safety establishments.
In line with the Iranian structure, in an effort to win the election, a candidate should safe a easy majority. If nobody achieves this consequence, a runoff election will happen subsequent Friday between the 2 candidates who get essentially the most votes.
Not your strange elections
“The present elections might be held a yr sooner than is stipulated by the legislation. Because of the extraordinary circumstances within the nation, Iran’s enemies had been anticipating unrest within the nation. Nonetheless, all the things goes in accordance with the same old schedule,” stated Abbas Mirzaei Ghazi, a consultant of the Russian-Iranian Heart for Financial and Authorized Cooperation.
Ghazi headed Ghalibaf’s marketing campaign headquarters in Moscow throughout the pre-election interval. “The present elections have one other particular function. They are going to be held inside 50 days after the loss of life of the [former] president (in accordance with Article 131 of the nation’s structure). Which means that the candidates had little or no time to current their four-year plan to voters. That they had lower than two weeks to realize the belief of the general public.”
RT: Observers pay specific consideration to the voter turnout in Iranian elections. Do you suppose the turnout might be excessive this time? Some sources predict that it might be fairly low…
Abbas Mirzaeli Ghazi: We needs to be reasonable and ignore the propaganda of the Western media. Contemplating the truth that candidates from each the conservative and reformist camps are operating within the election, they promise to be attention-grabbing. I predict that the voter turnout on this spherical [of the election] might be over 49%.
RT: Mr Ghalibaf, whose workforce you characterize, has typically famous that he’ll proceed the coverage of the earlier president. What does this discuss with?
Abbas Mirzaeli Ghazi: To the growth of [Iran’s] relations with neighboring nations. This coverage began underneath the Raisi administration, and Dr Ghalibaf’s administration is decided to proceed on this course. Ghalibaf stated that Iran possesses the ‘gold key’ to relations with nations like Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and, after all, Central Asia. Dr Ghalibaf’s authorities won’t ever comply with a passive geopolitical course.
Financial points
RT: On the presidential debates, financial progress was named a precedence objective. Do you suppose the brand new president will have the ability to obtain this? And what are the principle challenges on this regard?
Abbas Mirzaeli Ghazi: I consider that the important thing level is to type a authorities that the general public will belief. Iranians ought to really feel assured concerning the future – with out this, there will be no financial progress.
RT: Do you consider that work on concluding a complete cooperation settlement between Russia and Iran will proceed after the elections?
Abbas Mirzaeli Ghazi: In fact. Identical to the Russian Federation’s macro coverage is decided by Mr Vladimir Putin and is then carried out by the federal government, within the Islamic Republic of Iran, the macro coverage is decided by the Supreme Chief and is handed over to the federal government of the Islamic Republic of Iran for implementation.
As Ayatollah Khamenei famous, the settlement might be concluded and carried out by the longer term authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The signing of the great cooperation settlement between Russia and Iran will happen fairly quickly.
Conclusion: Foremost challenges
RT: One final query: What challenges will the brand new president face? What is going to his first steps seem like?
Abbas Mirzaeli Ghazi: The most important points are financial imbalance and inflation. On this context, the vitality situation is necessary. Lately, the nation’s vitality consumption progress charge has exceeded all worldwide requirements. On common, our vitality consumption grew by between 6% and 6.5% per yr, however our oil manufacturing was secure and decreased after the sanctions. Within the gasoline sector, though manufacturing elevated, it has already reached its peak.
Which means that consumption is rising, whereas manufacturing has stagnated. On this state of affairs, investments in oil and gasoline fields are at their lowest and their speedy decline may be very alarming, so the mounted capital of our oil and gasoline sector decreased by 30%. As for vitality sources equivalent to gasoline and diesel gas, on which we have now main restrictions, consumption has elevated from 6% to 14%. Which means that, in 5 or 6 years, this determine will double. Within the coming years, we are going to face main issues within the vitality sector.
The second downside considerations pure sources. The nation’s groundwater reserves are being depleted and won’t be replenished. Specialists warn about the specter of water shortage and a doable water disaster, which can result in land subsidence, desertification, and mud storms.
Naturally, the [president’s] first steps needs to be directed in the direction of fixing these two points.
Supply hyperlink
