How Trump received Pennsylvania − and what the numbers from key counties present about the way forward for a pivotal swing state

Pennsylvania was for months thought of the important thing swing state that might determine the 2024 election. Candidates, political events and advocacy teams spent over US$1 billion courting the commonwealth’s small variety of persuadable voters.

We now know that former – and now future – President Donald Trump carried the state by the most important margin of the previous three presidential elections. He received in 2016 by 0.72%, and Biden received in 2020 by 1.2%. Two days after Election Day, Trump has a 2% lead on Harris.

I’m an affiliate professor of public coverage and administration at Penn State Harrisburg and a lifelong Pennsylvanian.

Right here’s how Trump received Pennsylvania, and what the votes solid in a few of the state’s key counties inform us in regards to the current and way forward for American politics.

Vital caveat: That is all based mostly on numbers present as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024, and earlier than the ultimate tallies.

Philadelphia

The large story of the evening for me was voter turnout in Philadelphia.

Turnout in Pennsylvania’s largest metropolis has lengthy been considered as vital for statewide Democratic victories.

It seems like the town’s turnout in 2024 shall be on par with 2016, when political analysts blamed low Philly turnout for Hillary Clinton shedding the “blue wall” state of Pennsylvania. Roughly 700,000 Philadelphians voted in 2016, in contrast with about 708,000 in 2024. Each are smaller than the 750,000 that turned out in Philly in 2020, which helped Joe Biden safe his win.

Not solely that, however the Trump marketing campaign was additionally profitable in narrowing the margin of victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in Philly by 2%. So not solely did fewer voters prove in 2024 in Philly, however Trump was in a position to choose up a number of thousand extra votes within the metropolis than he did in 2020.

The bellwethers

Erie County within the northwest nook of the state has been the quintessential bellwether in Pennsylvania because the Nineteen Eighties. In current elections, it went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. It held onto its title in 2024 by going for Trump.

Throughout the previous 25 statewide elections – for governor, U.S. senator, lawyer basic and so forth – Erie has voted for the winner in 23, or 90%, of these races.

Erie is a deeply blue-collar county that’s whiter and poorer than each the commonwealth and the nation total. Like Pennsylvania extra broadly, Erie County historically had a robust Democratic registration benefit, however that declined by 18% from 2020 to 2024.

A query for the long run shall be whether or not Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania turns into one other bellwether.

Republicans had been in a position to obtain a slender voter registration benefit on this county bordering Philadelphia in 2024, flipping it from blue to pink for the primary time since 2007.

That benefit held within the last vote depend, whereas the opposite collar counties – Delaware, Montgomery and Chester – stay solidly Democratic. Importantly for Harris, although, even her margins in these blue counties declined from Biden’s in 2020.

Like Erie, Bucks extends from extra densely populated areas, simply north of Philadelphia, by means of suburbs and into rural areas. Though Bucks is a a lot bigger county than Erie by way of inhabitants, it has an analogous racial and ethnic make-up. Nevertheless, it is also residence to extra faculty graduates, which has develop into a key marker of the partisan divide.

A story of two metal cities

Cambria and Northampton counties in western and japanese Pennsylvania, respectively, inform contrasting tales of what has occurred to Rust Belt counties within the state, together with their attraction to Trump.

Northampton is residence to the town of Bethlehem, which was the headquarters of Bethlehem Metal, the American steelmaking behemoth based in 1857. Cambria, in the meantime, was the headquarters for the Cambria Iron Co., which was later offered to Bethlehem Metal.

For sure, each had been industrialized union cities, with strong blocs of Democratic voters all through the a long time, and each had been devastated by globalization that closed Bethlehem Metal in 2003. However their futures diverged economically and politically.

Northampton lies close to the economically highly effective I-95 hall and now has the fastest-growing economic system in Pennsylvania, owing to new manufacturing of medical units, guitars and semiconductors, in addition to jobs in well being care and Amazon’s distribution community.

Whereas Cambria has grown its well being care and schooling sectors, the county lags economically. Politically, Cambria has firmly embraced Trump, whereas Northampton is narrowly divided.

Nonetheless, Trump carried each counties in methods which might be telling for this election.

Cambria is a deeply pink county in western Pennsylvania populated by Trump’s conventional white, working-class, non-college-educated supporters. Republican vote share has been growing within the county because the late Nineteen Eighties however accelerated dramatically in the course of the first two Trump elections. Due to Election Day issues with vote-reading machines that resulted in a hand depend, Cambria’s outcomes are nonetheless not settled. However there isn’t a doubt the county will as soon as once more help Trump.

Northampton County is way extra racially and ethnically numerous, with 16% of residents figuring out as Hispanic/Latino. Early returns present Trump profitable Northampton by 2%, whereas Biden received it by 0.8% in 2020. Neighboring Bucks, Lehigh, Monroe and Lackawanna counties additionally moved 2% to three% in Trump’s course. This displays Trump’s notable achieve with Latino voters on this election nationwide.

The long run

It can take months to completely unpack the outcomes of this election.

It stays to be seen whether or not this was merely an anti-incumbent election and Harris couldn’t outrun dissatisfaction with the present administration, or if sturdy shifts have occurred in Pennsylvania’s voters.

Donald Trump won’t be on the poll in 2028, and candidates working within the MAGA lane haven’t carried out as nicely lately as he has within the commonwealth and elsewhere.

I imagine Pennsylvania will stay a swing state in 2028. However Democrats will want a extra compelling message, not only for the white working class, but additionally for working-class Latinos and African Individuals in these key counties.