Shifting patterns over the previous 4 years might play a task in figuring out the result of the 2024 presidential election, based on a brand new report from the Realtor.com® financial analysis group.
With simply weeks to go earlier than the election pitting Donald Trump towards Vice President Kamala Harris, the evaluation suggests which states are comparatively extra well-liked with pink or blue residence buyers, primarily based on Realtor.com on-line residence procuring site visitors knowledge from January 2021 by way of September 2024.
The report finds that of the seven key swing states thought of aggressive on this election cycle, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina have drawn comparatively higher curiosity from pink residence buyers.
In the meantime, Wisconsin and Nevada appear extra well-liked with blue residence buyers.
The 2 remaining swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, confirmed blended outcomes that didn’t point out a transparent pattern come what may.
If the opposite swing states find yourself voting alongside the partisan strains indicated within the report, this might imply that these two states might decide the result of the election.
The report gives a window into how current migration traits would possibly have an effect on the election, however it’s not a prediction of state-level election outcomes, which is able to hinge on a myriad of things, together with voter preferences on key points.
“The affect of migration on election outcomes is a compelling matter of debate, sparking curiosity in how shifting populations would possibly reshape the political panorama,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “As extra folks transfer throughout state strains, their voting habits might have the potential to sway election outcomes, particularly in essential swing states, the place even small adjustments within the voters can tip the scales.”
How the examine tracked pink and blue residence shopper curiosity
To evaluate how current migration traits would possibly have an effect on the 2024 presidential election, the examine mixed Realtor.com on-line residence procuring site visitors knowledge from January 2021 by way of September 2024 with 2020 presidential election county-level outcomes.
Utilizing these election outcomes, the financial analysis group decided the probability of every on-line residence view being related to a pink, blue, or impartial voter.
For instance, if 60% of voters within the 2020 election favored the Democratic candidate, then the group assumed that 60% of on-line actual property itemizing views from that county are from blue buyers.
The examine doesn’t account for components like earnings, age, or housing preferences that might have an effect on on-line residence procuring behaviors, and assumes the voting preferences of the everyday residence shopper are proportional to their present county of residence.
Based mostly on this assumption, between January 2021 and September 2024, 56.5% of on-line site visitors on Realtor.com got here from blue buyers, 41.7% from pink buyers, and the remaining 1.8% from impartial buyers.
The examine then compares the relative shares of whole out-of-state pink and blue procuring site visitors acquired by houses in every state, in addition to every state’s retention price of pink and blue residence buyers.
For instance, over the previous 4 years, Wisconsin has acquired 2.35% of the overall out-of-state purchaser curiosity from blue buyers, greater than the two.23% whole share from pink buyers.
Wisconsin additionally retained a better share of searches from blue buyers looking throughout the state (71.52%) than pink buyers (70.7%).
On account of these traits, the report postulates that Wisconsin might shift bluer in 2024. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, gained the state by 0.63% in 2020, after Trump gained there by 0.77% in 2016.
How the examine tracked pink and blue residence shopper curiosity
To evaluate how current migration traits would possibly have an effect on the 2024 presidential election, the examine mixed Realtor.com on-line residence procuring site visitors knowledge from January 2021 by way of September 2024 with 2020 presidential election county-level outcomes.
Utilizing these election outcomes, the financial analysis group decided the probability of every on-line residence view being related to a pink, blue, or impartial voter.
For instance, if 60% of voters within the 2020 election favored the Democratic candidate, then the group assumed that 60% of on-line actual property itemizing views from that county are from blue buyers.
The examine doesn’t account for components like earnings, age, or housing preferences that might have an effect on on-line residence procuring behaviors, and assumes the voting preferences of the everyday residence shopper are proportional to their present county of residence.
Based mostly on this assumption, between January 2021 and September 2024, 56.5% of on-line site visitors on Realtor.com got here from blue buyers, 41.7% from pink buyers, and the remaining 1.8% from impartial buyers.
The examine then compares the relative shares of whole out-of-state pink and blue procuring site visitors acquired by houses in every state, in addition to every state’s retention price of pink and blue residence buyers.
For instance, over the previous 4 years, Wisconsin has acquired 2.35% of the overall out-of-state purchaser curiosity from blue buyers, greater than the two.23% whole share from pink buyers.
Wisconsin additionally retained a better share of searches from blue buyers looking throughout the state (71.52%) than pink buyers (70.7%).
On account of these traits, the report postulates that Wisconsin might shift bluer in 2024. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, gained the state by 0.63% in 2020, after Trump gained there by 0.77% in 2016.
General, extra states might shift pink, based on examine
Throughout the nation, the examine discovered that migration patterns counsel that 22 states might shift to turn out to be extra pink, whereas eight states plus Washington, DC, might pattern extra blue, in contrast with the final election.
Twelve at present pink states—Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming—might pattern redder.
Seven blue states—California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, and Washington—might additionally pattern redder, the examine discovered.
The at present pink states that might shift bluer had been Alaska, Florida, and Ohio. In the meantime, 4 blue strongholds—Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, DC, and Maine—might pattern even bluer.
Twenty states displayed blended traits that didn’t counsel a transparent shift, based on the examine.
Whereas a state could shift redder or bluer attributable to migration patterns, the affect is probably going not massive sufficient to modify a state’s presidential vote, besides probably within the seven hotly contested swing states.
Pink and blue residence buyers each favor the South
The examine finds that each blue and pink out-of-state residence buyers confirmed nice curiosity in houses within the South, a pattern most likely pushed by the area’s comparatively inexpensive housing markets and hotter local weather.
Florida was the highest on-line residence search state for each affiliations, with 12.9% of all blue buyers and 12.8% of all pink buyers.
The Sunshine State additionally had the very best retention price amongst blue buyers, with 76.1% of blue site visitors from Florida remaining in-state, in contrast with 74.4% of pink site visitors.
Amongst pink buyers, Michigan had the very best retention price, with 75.56% of pink site visitors from Michigan remaining in-state, in contrast with 74.21% of blue site visitors.
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