He received the votes, now Starmer simply must win over the individuals | Jonathan Freedland

The hand of historical past rested solely evenly on their shoulders, however they might not shake it off utterly.

The 200 or so volunteers, activists and marketing campaign aides – with one Sue Grey tucked in amongst them – who lined Downing Avenue to see in a brand new, Labour prime minister knew they have been there, partially, as extras in a historic re-enactment.

With their union flags and hoarse cheers, they have been replaying a scene etched in Labour people reminiscence: that glad, assured morning in Might 1997 when Tony Blair made his option to No 10 by means of a throng of supporters having received a landslide victory.

The reminiscence was inevitable, and never solely as a result of the general majority received by Keir Starmer is uncannily near the 179-seat quantity that put Blair within the file books.

The echo of 1997 struck as a result of everybody current – beginning with Starmer himself – understood that what the nation had simply witnessed was an occasion of vanishing rarity.

Till the early hours of Friday morning, Labour had solely twice earlier than ousted an incumbent authorities by profitable a transparent, viable majority of its personal: 1997 and 1945. That’s it. (Harold Wilson ejected the Tories in 1964 and 1974, however he did it with majorities you might rely on one hand.)

In relation to basic elections, Labour’s default setting is to lose, lose and lose once more. Not for nothing have been Labour households urging their youngsters to remain up late on Thursday night time, explaining that what was about to unfold in July 2024 was a once- or twice-in-a-lifetime incidence.

No surprise so many Labour staffers needed their infants or kids with them as they waited for Starmer in Downing Avenue: they assume the photographs of that occasion will turn out to be historic artefacts.

Nor was it a shock that there was such a launch of emotion within the crowd as soon as Starmer had completed talking and walked by means of that polished black door.

A part of it was sleep deprivation, however the hugs and tears additionally spoke to a deep reduction. Labour’s marketing campaign coordinator – and now chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster – Pat McFadden stood on Whitehall, greeted by one activist after one other who needed to shake his hand or pull him in for an embrace.

“Scotland! We’ve acquired it again, we’ve acquired it again,” mentioned one. Alex Simply, one of many few Labour candidates who didn’t win, mentioned he was off to eat one thing, have a drink – “after which inform my kids I’ve shaken the prime minister’s hand”.

And but the scene that performed out in Westminster was uncommon in one other, extra fragile approach too. Lower than two hours earlier than Starmer approached the lectern exterior No 10, Rishi Sunak stood there to announce he can be stepping down as Conservative chief in addition to prime minister.

Seemingly shell-shocked, he apologised to the nation and his celebration after which, in phrases that may have as soon as seemed like boilerplate, he wished Starmer effectively: “His successes shall be all of our successes … No matter our disagreements on this marketing campaign, he’s a good public-spirited man who I respect.”

In a yr when Donald Trump appears effectively positioned to return to the White Home – regardless of having by no means conceded defeat within the 2020 election and having sought to overturn that free and truthful vote – a easy, beneficiant concession speech like Sunak’s seemed like a valuable factor certainly.

It’s simply taken as a right, however within the area of some quick minutes – one man comes out of the Palace, one other man goes in – we had witnessed the peaceable, uncontested switch of energy. There shall be many watching from afar who may solely dream of such a factor.

Nonetheless, there shall be lots urging that we don’t get too misty-eyed about this election, and for good cause.

Starmer could have gotten near Blair’s 418 seats, and 2024 outstripped 1997 when it got here to “Portillo” moments – the defeat of Liz Truss within the beforehand deep blue stronghold of South West Norfolk shall be value watching on a YouTube loop everytime you really feel your spirits sag – however there are some troubling numbers too: chief amongst them, an general vote share for Labour of simply 35%.

Now, it’s simple to say that that quantity merely factors to a extra fragmented political panorama than the one which existed 1 / 4 century in the past. Again in 1997, it nonetheless made sense to speak of a two- or three-party system.

This time, and even excluding Northern Eire, there have been six events who received Commons seats in addition to a cluster of profitable independents. However the cussed truth stays: Labour has practically two-thirds of the seats, having received not way more than a 3rd of the votes. Its share in England represents an advance since 2019 of simply half a proportion level.

Starmer mirrored that in what was an excellent speech on the steps of No 10, comfortably the most effective he has ever delivered. Beneficiant to Sunak, and particularly to “his achievement as the primary British Asian prime minister of our nation”, he went out of his option to deal with those that had not voted Labour: “I say to you immediately, my authorities will serve you.”

Operating by means of the deal with was an understanding of the modesty of this second. Starmer tacitly conceded that he had not been carried into workplace on a wave of euphoria and even enthusiasm, that as an alternative this was a repudiation election – that voters had turned to no matter broom was inside attain to comb the Tories out.

In some locations that was the Liberal Democrats; elsewhere it was Reform or the Greens. However because of the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, ruthlessly and brilliantly exploited by a Labour marketing campaign that targeted on profitable seats – and which was richly helped by the Conservative-Reform break up on the fitting – it primarily meant Labour.

Starmer’s message was that he knew the nation had put Labour in mainly to get the Tories out – however that he hoped that he may, by means of a spell of strong governance, safe the general public’s belief.

It’s an uncommon form of political logic – having received an election, he now hopes to win over the individuals – nevertheless it suits the instances.

Britons are exhausted, cautious and sceptical. They’ve seen the large guarantees, charismatic performers and grand schemes – Brexit, levelling up – all come to nothing.

They could have lent their votes to Labour, however they don’t seem to be able to commit: they wish to attempt earlier than they purchase.

And so Starmer promised nothing extra flashy than “stability and moderation”. The phrases he selected instructed the story: “calm”, “affected person”, “quietly”.

His intention is to shock individuals by governing competently and with propriety, steadily sporting down the suspicions of the citizens all too seen in these outcomes.

Labour’s intention shouldn’t be that the nation falls in love with Starmer, however that in 5 years’ time, voters say: “You already know what, he’s been higher than I believed. Give him one other go.”

His speech labored so effectively as a result of it fitted with the picture he already has: unexciting maybe, however succesful and first rate. The identical goes for his first cupboard appointments, every individual persevering with to hold the portfolio they held in opposition. Not flashy or headline-grabbing, however wise.

None of that adjustments the plain challenges that confront this new authorities. The general public realm is in a parlous state and there’s little cash to spend, which is one cause why Starmer and Rachel Reeves must be as laser-focused on fostering development as David Cameron and George Osborne have been on imposing austerity. However the political activity isn’t any much less daunting.

Labour’s assist, which now stretches from Scotland’s central belt to the English house counties, is a mile broad and an inch deep. There’s a danger that it has constructed what the pollster James Kanagasooriam calls a “sandcastle” victory – one that appears beautiful, however which may simply be swept away. The brand new political volatility, which gave Boris Johnson a broad coalition in 2019 solely to destroy it 4 and a half years later, may mete out the identical destiny to Labour in 2029.

However how you can maintain collectively the inconceivable coalition it has assembled? It must face in a minimum of two instructions without delay, concurrently tackling migration, say, to stop defections to Reform – now in second place in scores of Labour seats – and interesting to left voters tempted by the Greens or independents, particularly on international coverage points. Some Labour MPs shall be pushing for motion on small boats; others shall be demanding hotter relations with Europe or a brand new stance on Gaza. Reconciling these shall be a herculean activity.

And but, these are the issues Starmer yearned to have – the issues of energy. He can draw consolation too from the truth that he now governs a rustic that needed not merely to defeat the Conservatives, however to expel and punish them – and the place a majority of voters didn’t again events of the fitting. The second is stuffed with risk.

It rained closely within the hour earlier than Starmer and his spouse, Victoria, arrived in Downing Avenue. Labour advance groups had glanced anxiously on the skies, questioning whether or not his first speech would get the Sunak therapy and see him drenched. The clouds remained whereas the brand new prime minister spoke, however the heavens didn’t open. And, as soon as he had gone inside, and Labour people hugged, just a few of them wiping the tears from their eyes, for just a few moments a minimum of, the solar selected to shine.