First Factor: Individuals head to polls with historic election on a knife edge

Good morning.

Tens of hundreds of thousands of voters will forged their ballots on Tuesday in one of many tightest and most divided presidential elections in trendy US historical past, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a useless warmth.

Current polling has didn’t determine a transparent benefit for both candidate throughout the battleground states, however most consultants agree that whoever wins Pennsylvania is more likely to be forward.

“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the entire ball of wax,” Trump mentioned at a rally in Studying, south-east Pennsylvania. The Republican closed his marketing campaign by launching insults at his opponents, whereas Harris completed by calling for her facet to “get to work and get out the vote”.

Harris spent the ultimate day of campaigning in Pennsylvania and completed in Philadelphia, alongside Girl Gaga and Oprah Winfrey. “We don’t get to sit down this one out,” Winfrey mentioned. “If we don’t present up tomorrow, it’s completely potential that we’ll not have the chance to ever forged a poll once more.”

Presidential result’s near 50-50, election guru says

The main forecaster Nate Silver launched his ultimate election forecast in a single day, predicting that the candidates had a near even shot on the high job.

Silver mentioned that Harris received in 40,012 out of 80,000, or 50.015% of simulations run utilizing his mannequin. Whereas polls on Monday gave Harris a slight lead in Michigan, she appeared even with Trump in Pennsylvania and different battleground states. In the meantime, Trump maintained his lead within the betting markets, however the odds barely narrowed.

• Who’s Silver? The forecaster known as 49 out of fifty states within the 2008 election, in addition to the end result of the 2012 and 2020 races. Take it with a pinch of salt although – in 2016, he gave Trump solely a 28.6% probability of turning into president.

US safety companies warn of Russian election disinformation blitz in swing states

Disinformation operations linked to Moscow have falsely claimed officers in swing states plan to fraudulently affect the US election, US safety companies have mentioned.

“Russia is essentially the most energetic menace,” the Workplace of the Director of Nationwide Intelligence (ODNI), the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Safety Company mentioned on Monday.

“These efforts danger inciting violence, together with in opposition to election officers,” they added, saying they anticipated the disinformation campaigns to escalate on election day and within the coming weeks. The companies cited examples of pretend movies purporting to indicate election fraud in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Keep updated with The Stakes

With a nail-bitingly tense time forward earlier than we all know what’s what relating to a critically shut presidential race, you possibly can depend on The Stakes e-newsletter to maintain you within the loop every morning. For rolling protection, head to our liveblog.

In different election information …

• The influential podcaster Joe Rogan has endorsed Donald Trump for president, saying he has been swayed by “the good and highly effective Elon Musk”.

• The Republican mega-donors Dick and Liz Uihlein have anonymously polled workers at their firm Uline on who they are going to be voting for within the presidential election.

• Trump ought to concede defeat and “go and play golf” in Scotland if he loses the election, the Reform UK chief and Trump ally, Nigel Farage, has mentioned, including that Harris ought to pardon him to scale back the specter of unrest.

Stat of the day: Republicans have a 90% probability of controlling the Senate and a 52% probability of a Home majority

With all eyes on the presidential election, it may be straightforward to look previous what’s going on with the battle for Home and the Senate – however for Democrats, the forecasts are trying much more worrying. As of Saturday night, 538 gave the Republicans a 90% probability of regaining management of the Senate and a 52% probability of protecting their Home majority.

Don’t miss this: ‘It’s a little analog’: how the Related Press calls election winners within the US

Have you ever ever questioned simply how election winners get known as – particularly when not all of the votes have been tallied? Election nerds, rejoice! The Guardian sat down with the Related Press, on which, like many different newsrooms, it depends for its election outcomes. The AP explains the way it calls elections, how this course of has modified, and the way it has not, over the 148 years it has-been doing it.

• In the event you fancy a fast round-down on precisely the way it all works, from the paths to victory to after we will know who’s received, this explainer has you coated.

Local weather verify: Protesters cut back blockade of world’s largest coal port

Environmental protesters are blockading the Port of Newcastle in Australia, which is considered the most important coal export operation on the earth. The activists have decreased their protest – throughout which they may paddle into the harbour on kayaks to cease coal exports leaving the port – from 50 to 30 hours, after police intervention.

Final Factor: Who Deng? Edinburgh zoo’s pygmy hippo Haggis might be web rival to Thailand’s

Edinburgh zoo, in Scotland, has introduced the beginning of a pygmy hippo named Haggis that would rival the recognition of Thailand’s Moo Deng. The zoo introduced her arrival saying: “Moo Deng? Who deng? Introducing … Haggis.” However not earlier than jokingly apologizing for pitting the child hippos in opposition to one another, saying: “There’s house on this world for 2 lovely pygmy hippo divas and we must always have fun all of them.”

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