The conspiracy concept that the 2020 was stolen is now mainstream on the best. Believers are undeterred by the truth that the election was free and honest and the dearth of proof of fraud. Those that search to right the misinformation turn out to be targets of Donald Trump and his allies.
As Trump runs for re-election, he has laid the groundwork to make a bevy of stolen election claims after 5 November, lots of that are retreads of these made in 2020 or different elections. They embrace the false declare that non-citizens are voting in broad numbers, assaults on the voting and counting course of, misunderstandings of how elections work and opportunism when human errors happen.
If Trump wins, these lies may very well be used to focus on down-ballot races. If Trump loses, election lies may attain ranges seen in 2020 – or past.
Trump has not dedicated to accepting the outcomes of the 2024 election. “If I lose – I’ll inform you what, it’s potential. As a result of they cheat. That’s the one approach we’re gonna lose, as a result of they cheat,” Trump stated throughout a rally in September.
Here’s a rundown of a few of the most pervasive myths about elections, how they’re run and who votes in them.
Non-citizens
Republicans, led by Trump and his allies, have repeatedly claimed with out proof that non-citizens are voting en masse in US elections. It’s unlawful for non-citizens to vote in federal elections. States confirm citizenship, and voting illegally may result in deportation. Nonetheless, individuals corresponding to Elon Musk have elevated these falsehoods, claiming that Democrats are attempting to “import voters”.
There isn’t any proof that non-citizens are voting, and even registering to vote, in vital numbers. Republicans have tried to get round that lack of proof by counting on intestine emotions. “Everyone knows – intuitively – that a number of illegals are voting in federal elections. However it’s not been one thing that’s simply provable,” the Home speaker, Mike Johnson, stated as he pushed for laws to deal with the non-problem.
Within the run-up to November, some states have sought to purge their voter rolls of potential non-citizens, although these purges have run into authorized bother for discriminating in opposition to a bunch of voters or for making an attempt to take away voters inside 90 days of an election, which isn’t authorized. And the purges have ensnared eligible voters, each naturalized residents and US-born ones.
The Republican Nationwide Committee has filed lawsuits in some states claiming the voter rolls weren’t maintained and will comprise non-citizens, although consultants say the assaults on voter rolls seem extra designed for publicity functions than severe authorized issues.
Voting machines and hand counts
Because the 2020 election, claims have continued to unfold that machines used to tabulate votes in some way injected ballots in favor of Democrats, although no proof has been supplied to help these claims. These assaults could nicely emerge once more in 2024. Already, an account on X with almost 250,000 followers wrote that Democrats have been going to steal the election by printing “MILLIONS of pretend ballots” after which unloading “PALLETS of BALLOTS and run them by the machines”. The submit was seen greater than 4m occasions.
Repeated assaults on voting machines have led the businesses that make them, together with Dominion Voting Programs and Smartmatic, to file lawsuits in opposition to media shops that unfold these lies, leading to settlements in opposition to the shops, together with one for $787.5m in opposition to Fox Information.
In some locations, there was a push for hand-counting ballots – a costlier, slower and fewer correct technique of tabulation.
A gaggle of hand-count supporters has toured the nation attempting to get native jurisdictions to undertake the observe, with restricted success in some smaller areas. A rule change in Georgia to hand-count ballots was blocked by a decide there.
Certification
A key approach election deniers may search to overturn leads to November is thru the certification course of.
In US elections, native elections officers oversee the counting of ballots, sometimes called the canvass. County or city elected officers then log off on these leads to what is named a certification. The position of those county or city officers is to acknowledge the rely, not act as a referee. This perform is necessary, not discretionary.
Throughout the nation, there have been a couple of cases of officers refusing to certify outcomes. In Georgia, some election officers refused to certify outcomes on this yr’s presidential main. In Cochise county, Arizona, two Republican county supervisors initially refused to certify, requiring a court docket to get them organized to take action, after which one of many two reversed her vote. These supervisors have been criminally charged by the state’s Democratic legal professional normal partly to discourage others from attempting the same stunt.
Delaying a certification may disenfranchise voters whose elected officers refused to acknowledge their votes have been solid. Courts have uniformly responded to power certification within the cases the place it was refused or delayed since 2020, however these delays undermine the electoral course of and may be expensive.
Abroad voters
Trump and rightwing media, together with Gateway Pundit, a web site that’s significantly prolific within the realm of election misinformation, have claimed that Democrats are attempting to cheat by getting abroad US residents to vote. However that is authorized.
Almost 3 million individuals who dwell overseas, together with US navy members and their households, are eligible to vote through the Uniformed and Abroad Residents Absentee Voting Act.
Democrats have estimated a a lot greater quantity, saying in a memo that 9 million People overseas may very well be eligible to vote. This set off rumors that Democrats have been planning to fraudulently register individuals, and that this might turn out to be an avenue for international interference in elections. The Middle for an Knowledgeable Public on the College of Washington broke down how the rumor unfold and debunked it.
(Based on the College of Washington, the Democrats’ declare of 9 million eligible voters was “faulty”.)
Strategies of voting
Trump and his allies have typically attacked voting by mail, saying it isn’t safe. They’ve additionally attacked drop containers that permit voters to deposit their ballots rapidly and simply. Some have pushed for sooner or later of voting, solely in particular person, which might drastically curtail voter entry.
In Arizona in 2022, some activists camped out at drop containers, some armed or in tactical gear, to watch individuals dropping off ballots, till the courts curtailed the observe.
However this yr, Trump and the Republican social gathering have modified course and inspired their voters to end up early and solid ballots by mail if it’s their choice, an indication that they have been dropping votes by discouraging these practices.
Nonetheless, if Trump loses, he may once more declare that voting by mail, using drop containers or early voting on the whole are compromised by fraud.
Human errors and surprising controversies
Each election sees human errors, most of which don’t have an effect on individuals’s capability to vote or vote totals. However these errors can turn out to be sources of misinformation, as can benign circumstances which can be spun into controversies.
If latest historical past is any precedent, put together for some form of pen debacle.
In 2020, and to a lesser extent within the 2022 midterms, the kind of pens given out to voters in Maricopa county, Arizona, figured in numerous conspiracies. Dubbed “Sharpiegate” in 2020, using Sharpies didn’t have an effect on individuals’s votes, although some on the best unfold this declare as a result of the markers can bleed by and go away a mark on the opposite facet of a two-sided poll. (This doesn’t have an effect on how a vote is learn by a tabulator.)
In 2022, the county switched to a unique felt-tip pen, however for some, it didn’t matter: they nonetheless inspired voters to not use the county-provided pens, despite the fact that these pens have been finest for the printers and prevented ink from gumming up machines.
Reputable errors also can result in outsized criticism. In Minnesota this month, the hatch of a poll transport van was left open and unattended, with ballots in it, for about 10 minutes. The ballots have been undisturbed, safety footage confirmed, however a picture of the open van unfold broadly, inflicting controversy.
The Minnesota secretary of state, Scott Simon, a Democrat, stated the incident was “inexcusable and completely unacceptable”, and his workplace despatched a bulletin out to native elections officers to remind them to double down on safety, he stated.
“All it takes is one sloppy, inattentive particular person to name into query the actually good and conscientious work of 1000’s and 1000’s of individuals,” he informed the Guardian. “So it’s irritating to see, however we’re attempting to make it a teachable second in our workplace.”
‘Delays’ and recounts
Vote counting takes time. US elections are complicated – in some locations, ballots can run longer than a web page, with voters weighing in on races from president down to highschool boards. Verifying signatures on mail-in ballots, used broadly in some states, can take days. In a fast-paced society, the gradual tempo of counting precisely can absolutely be irritating.
And in locations the place elections are particularly shut, all eyes can be watching because the vote-counting continues nicely past election day. Claims would possibly emerge about how these gradual counts are in some way indicative of fraud.
This may very well be very true in Arizona, which has shut races and significantly giant counties. Lawmakers there have additionally altered the recount threshold because the 2020 election – now, an computerized recount is triggered if a race is inside 0.5%, up from 0.1%. This led to a number of recounts within the 2022 midterms, together with for the state legal professional normal. Relying on how shut the presidential race or different key matchups are, these recounts may turn out to be a supply for misinformation.
Republicans have pressed for quicker outcomes in addition to for extra checks on the voting course of, two concepts which can be often at odds. Trump has used the window between the top of voting and the finalization of outcomes to declare victory previously. In 2020, he deliberate prematurely to name himself the winner even when it wasn’t clear he really was, Axios reported on the time.
As votes are counted, one candidate could exchange one other within the lead. This isn’t proof that ballots have in some way been injected, as has generally been alleged. It’s slightly the perform of how counting works: as extra ballots are tabulated, totals change.
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