From Westminster, the Night Customary’s Parliament staff – Nicholas Cecil, Jitendra Joshi, and Rachael Burford – carry you a particular sequence within the run-up to the overall election.
Produced by the Customary podcast staff, examine again right here each week to discover a model new episode of A Week’s a Lengthy Time in Westminster.
Episode 4: Labour landslide and London’s new political panorama
Labour’s historic victory, damaged down by our politics staff – Nicholas Cecil, Jitendra Joshi and Rachael Burford. On this episode:
Episode three: Time’s operating out for Rishi Sunak as July 4 looms
Offended debates on either side of the Atlantic, unique interviews with Rishi Sunak and Sir Ed Davey, a calamitous ballot for the Tories, and the battle for Jewish votes in Finchley. Nicholas Cecil, Jitendra Joshi and Rachael Burford focus on the most recent drama within the run-up to the overall election. On this episode:
- Did the PM do sufficient in his ultimate debate with the Labour chief?
- Simply how unhealthy was Joe Biden’s personal debate with Donald Trump?
- Ipsos polling finds 72% of voters dislike the Tories.
- Sir Keir Starmer admits remarks about Bangladesh had been ‘clumsy’
Episode two: Bets off on subsequent drama hitting Rishi Sunak
A betting scandal, Starmer struggles to shake off Corbyn’s legacy, Boris returns and Ed Davey’s newest antics. Nicholas Cecil, Jitendra Joshi and Rachael Burford focus on the most recent drama within the run-up to the overall election. On this episode:
- Conservatives pressured to delete ‘playing’ submit on X
- Suella Braverman’s embarrassing TikTok posts
- The newest Ipsos survey sheds mild on London’s intentions
- Why an area Labour chief was discovered hiding in a hedge
Episode one: Three weeks to go till July 4 polling day…
- Forward of Euro 2024 kicking off, it is a sport of two halves on the marketing campaign path
- Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and Greens publish their manifestos
- Has Rishi Sunak recovered from his D-Day blunder?
- Sir Keir Starmer’s occasion nonetheless on the again foot over tax plans
- Or is it actually potholes and NHS ready lists voters are most involved about?
- With Night Customary political editor Nicholas Cecil, deputy political editor Jitendra Joshi and chief political correspondent Rachael Burford.
Seek for The Customary on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you stream.
Right here’s an automatic transcript for episode one:
From London, I am political editor, Nicholas Cecil.
I am chief political correspondent, Rachael Burford.
And I am deputy political editor, Jitendra Joshi.
And that is The Customary podcast’s, A Week’s a Lengthy Time in Westminster.
“We’re the occasion of Margaret Thatcher and Nigel Lawson, a celebration not like Labour that believes in sound cash.
So we are going to be sure that we’ve decrease welfare in order that we are able to ship decrease taxes.” SUNAK
Recorded from our newsroom at Westminster, this can be a sequence of particular episodes each Friday within the run as much as the election.
We’ll minimize by means of the noise and provide help to become familiar with what’s actually happening in politics, each right here in London and throughout the nation.
Taking you thru the week’s political information, coverage gossip and scandal.
And we’ll be with you on outcomes day to unpack all the things.
“I do not imagine it is truthful to boost taxes on working folks once they’re already paying this a lot, significantly in a value of residing disaster.
We won’t elevate earnings tax.
We won’t elevate nationwide insurance coverage.
That could be a manifesto dedication.” STARMER
So this week was a sport of two halves within the election marketing campaign, forward of England’s first sport at Euro 2024 on Sunday.
Initially of the week, it was the Tories with that manifesto, however they’re doing so badly within the polls.
It was like they had been beginning the sport 5 nil down.
The second half of the week was Labour’s manifesto.
And for Sir Keir Starmer, it is the other.
He is an enormous soccer fan, and he is aware of he’ll be in quantity 10 in simply three weeks time, except his occasion scores a string of spectacular personal targets.
So to begin the present, let’s kick off with the Tories.
So on Tuesday, we had the Tory manifesto, and that was very a lot tax cuts, tax cuts, and extra tax cuts.
They proposed to chop an extra 2p off the principle fee of Nationwide Insurance coverage by 2027.
And they’re additionally proposing ditching the principle fee of Nationwide Insurance coverage for the self-employed.
There have been fairly just a few different pledges of their manifesto, for instance, constructing 1.6 million extra houses within the subsequent 5 years, stamp obligation for first time consumers being abolished on houses as much as a price of £425,000.
They repeated their pledge to get Rwanda flights, deportation flights off the bottom, although up to now they very clearly failed to realize that.
They pledged to spice up spending on protection at 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
They are saying they will make £12 billion of financial savings from welfare cuts.
And so they additionally declare that they will discover £5 billion by means of closing the tax hole, which is cracking down on tax avoidance and so forth.
Nevertheless, the difficulty they’re dealing with there, as we have seen immediately, Nick, is with regard to these tax cuts, is that they’re open to assault from Labour, who’re accusing them of not having the funding to fill the outlet that these cuts would depart.
We’re listening to immediately from Wes Streeting, for instance, who’s saying that this manifesto quantities to what he calls Liz Truss on steroids.
And that is a wound that Labour are significantly eager to maintain punching at, reminding voters of the current chaos, as they name it underneath Tory rule.
Nevertheless it’s onerous to say that the manifesto itself, with all the small print and all of the minimize and thrust and the details and the figures, to what extent that basically cuts by means of with voters.
I believe what we have seen over the week, what actually does have an effect on them are self-inflicted targets.
As an illustration, every week in the past, final Friday, we woke as much as Rishi Sunak having to subject a reasonably devastating apology coming hours after he’d left the D-Day ceremonies in Normandy early to document an ITV interview.
There was nothing significantly urgent about that interview, however there was a sense that conservatives felt they had been on the again foot towards Labour they usually needed to regain the initiative.
That is backfired horribly after Rishi Sunak got here underneath fairly withering hearth, together with from some aged veterans themselves who felt they’d been deserted on their day on what realistically is gonna be the final vital anniversary given the age of these heroes.
After which it turned out in that self-same ITV interview, we now be taught Rishi Sunak was once more reinforcing this sense that he is not fully in contact maybe with folks on the market.
He was requested, phrases to the impact, what was the most important hardship you confronted rising up?
And he stated, properly, we did not have Sky TV.
And I believe for folks like the girl who kicked off the primary ITV debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, she defined in fairly upsetting element how badly the price of residing disaster has affected her and much and plenty of households up and down the nation are gonna relate to tales like that.
So to listen to a multimillionaire who’s already being accused of being out of contact and simply failing to grasp what individuals are going by means of, to listen to that that is the worst he can provide you with, properly, that does not actually assist, does it?
Yeah, the Tories are positively obsessive about tax cuts.
And actually that is as a result of it is type of the one factor they have that they will kind of latch onto on this marketing campaign as a result of they have been in energy for 14 years, immigration is at document highs, NHS ready lists at document highs.
It is very onerous for them to come back out and say, properly, we’ll kind this out once they’ve been answerable for sorting it out for over a decade.
So they are going in on tax cuts and this kind of repute that they beforehand have being the occasion of fiscal accountability, however they’re actually kind of shedding that.
I imply, after the catastrophe that was Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak’s full lack of ability to kind of pull that again, I believe all they have now could be him to exit and say, properly, we’ll minimize your tax.
We’ll offer you just a few further pennies in your pay packet.
However there are folks dealing with clearly large mortgage hikes, large meals payments, large power payments.
So it is a massive, massive downside for them.
And I do not assume there’s something that Rishi Sunak can really do now to persuade those who, sure, I wish to vote Tory at this election as a result of I believe they’re those which can be gonna be capable to kind the nation out.
The Conservatives at all times had a kind of base of common voters, those who exit and vote for the occasion each time as a result of they do like low taxes.
They do assume they’re the occasion of fiscal accountability.
However now you’ve got received, I believe, average Tory voters who assume there’s a whole lot of two proper wing.
You’ve got received proper wing Tory voters who assume there’s a whole lot of two left wing.
And you have the sensible Tories who simply assume they’re ineffective.
So it is onerous to see who’s really gonna come out and vote for them at this election.
Simply sticking on tax for a bit longer as a result of that was the primary blow struck by both the leaders within the first TV debate that we had between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
So the Prime Minister got here out with this line that for those who elect a Labour authorities, you may get hit with a £2,000 tax invoice.
In order that’s a £2,000 per family.
Keir Starmer, fairly surprisingly, did not have a correct reply to that.
And that was seen as actually fairly a Tory success to have landed an early blow on the Labour chief who on the core subject of tax appeared to be stumped.
Properly, that is the place it will get actually fascinating as a result of this £2,000 determine began to unravel fairly shortly.
So first the Treasury, which compiled some figures which went into the Tory calculations.
The Treasury, probably the most senior civil servant within the Treasury distanced himself from a few of these figures.
Then we had unbiased reality checkers being actually fairly essential about it.
After which we had the UK Statistics Authority stating that this £2,000 determine is a determine over 4 years.
And ministers, Tory candidates and so forth, they’re actually not making that clear.
So voters are being left with the impression that that is £2,000 a yr.
Now you’d have thought possibly that the conservators would pull again a bit then as a result of they thought, properly, really, possibly that is getting a little bit of difficult territory for us.
However really it is the other.
They’ve doubled down on this declare.
So that they carry on repeating it.
Labour will tax you extra.
It’s going to be £2,000 extra tax, regardless that this determine is wanting more and more uncertain.
Nevertheless it did lead, although, arguably to Rishi Sunak’s D-Day blunder.
So the day after that debate, the day after the Prime Minister made that fairly questionable declare, Labour had been hitting him from each quarter, saying, you are a liar.
He was in Portsmouth after which in Normandy, feeling like he could not punch again.
Ultimately, when he did hit again, properly, we noticed what occurred.
It actually, actually unraveled in a short time as a result of he’d left D-Day early.
So there was a conspiracy concept doing the rounds that really Labour, this was all a crafty ruse.
You recognize, Keir Starmer let him make that false assault as they noticed it through the debate with a purpose to pummel them the following day.
I believe that is a little bit of a stretch.
This stuff are typically extra cock up than conspiracy.
However by way of who received the narrative over these days and since, as a result of this week once more, Rishi Sunak is pressured to apologize in each TV look.
This D-Day factor simply will not go away.
And that’s actually the kind of factor the voters do keep in mind.
Properly, these are very very similar to the headline battleground engagements.
However there’s additionally quite a bit taking place on the native stage in London.
I believe, Rachael, you’ve got received some particulars of that, have not you?
Yeah, so I have been out and about in just a few seats in London this week and final week.
Clearly, with this being Manifesto Week, there have not been as many visits.
However final week, there was definitely some ministers out, eager to get folks out on the bottom and be seen campaigning.
I went to Sutton and Cheam, which is a seat that the Tories presently maintain, however is underneath risk from the Lib Dems, principally.
The Lib Dems have gotten it on the prime of their goal checklist just about.
The Tory candidate there, Tom Drummond, was fairly eager to speak about potholes and the way Sutton Lib Dem Council is ineffective at filling in potholes.
We received all taken out to this kind of deepest, darkest Sutton, to this street.
And James Cleverley, the Residence Secretary, got here alongside as properly to marketing campaign the Tory candidate.
And sadly, although, Sutton Council, I am certain they might deny they received wind of this go to, however the Council had been filling within the potholes as we had been there.
So all we had was kind of James Cleverley stood in entrance of some council diggers, they usually had been fairly unable to kind of go on about how horrible the Lib Dems are at filling in potholes and the way you positively should not vote for them.
However clearly, James Cleverley was, , nonetheless did his bits to digital camera, and he would discuss to us about crime in London and issues like that.
And so they had been clearly utilizing Sadiq Khan nonetheless as a little bit of a punching bag.
The whole lot is his fault. It is Labour’s fault. That is what the town is like underneath Labour.
That is what’s going to occur.
So it was a kind of missed alternative on the piles, however a factor the place they may go on about crime a bit.
Proper, let’s go to a fast advert break.
Arising within the second half, the Labour manifesto.
Hit observe within the meantime.
Welcome again to A Week’s A Lengthy Time in Westminster.
So, Labour’s manifesto, it was very a lot Sir Keir Starmer attempting to win over Center England.
He was saying, we can be pro-business, pro-workers, we are going to concentrate on getting financial progress.
That is the core of our technique, he was saying, and that we’re now a celebration of wealth creation, which was one million miles from the Jeremy Corbyn years.
The issue with Labour’s new technique is that it’s totally, very closely depending on getting wholesome financial progress again in Britain.
And we have had the COVID pandemic, we have had the Putin’s conflict in Ukraine, after which we have had the political turmoil, financial turmoil as properly of current years, significantly underneath the Liz Truss administration.
So for those who’re banking on getting wholesome financial progress going and you do not get it, what do you do to pay in your public companies in your 40,000 extra appointments to get the NHS backlog down, to pay in your 6,500 extra lecturers?
So with that wholesome financial progress, you’ve got received two choices.
So that you both go for tax rises otherwise you go for borrowing.
And on the subject of tax rises, so Keir was very eager to rule out a variety of tax rises or potential tax rises.
So he stated there’d be no earnings tax rise, no nationwide insurance coverage tax rise, and no VAT rise.
However he wasn’t so clear about, for instance, capital good points tax.
And there are a selection of tax rises.
They’re much less controversial than the principle ones, however nonetheless fairly controversial that Labour are already continuing with, together with placing VAT on non-public college charges, ending the non-dom standing.
That clearly advantages the very rich and shutting loopholes within the windfall tax on oil and gasoline giants.
So that they’re saying we are able to get all the cash from there for what we have to do and some different issues, however there’s nonetheless an enormous query over that.
There’s clearly been a whole lot of column inches devoted to this VAT on non-public college charges, however in all probability greater than it warrants, to be trustworthy.
I do not assume most people care in regards to the very small variety of folks that really go to personal college, clearly do.
Clearly Rishi Sunak did go to a non-public college and has been very anti it, saying it is anti-aspirational, however no, it is not working in any respect.
Individuals are feeling, we have no aspiration different than simply paying the payments and getting by means of the week and the month.
And in case you have a spare 30,000 kilos a yr for personal college charges, for those who’re attempting to plead poverty within the present financial local weather, I believe the sympathy is restricted from regular folks.
That could be a battle that Labour are very blissful to have.
The place the Tories have been pushing again, they assume extra successfully maybe is taking a look at precisely what you had been saying there, Nick, about the place’s the cash coming from.
If we do not turbocharge the financial system with this elusive progress that each single authorities that is ever been desires progress, properly, what occurs if you do not get it?
The Tories immediately are alleging that Labour have gotten 18 tax rises within the works.
That is principally as a result of each time they ask a Labour individual, are you gonna do that?
Until they are saying completely not, they will say, ah, you are not ruling it out.
So that they’ve totted up the variety of occasions that is occurred.
A few of these claims are fairly debatable.
When even final evening, we noticed Angela Rayner really ruling out a few of these issues.
However they assume there’s mileage in suggesting that Labour are gonna go after issues like capital good points tax in your main residence.
So in the mean time, once you promote your house, your important house, you do not pay tax on that.
If that had been to vary, you talked about Center England, which Keir Starmer is clearly concentrating on.
Properly, that kind of factor is gonna go down like a bucket of coal six, to be trustworthy, in these kind of Tory heartlands.
In order that’s presumably a preview of what is to come back between now and election day in Labour’s defence, or a minimum of to place their perspective throughout.
The place is the expansion coming from?
Properly, they’re saying they have numerous methods of unlocking that progress that the Tories have actively been blocking, akin to planning restrictions to unleash new house constructing, get folks off ready lists, carry down property costs and leases specifically, that are simply taking on a lot extra of everybody’s earnings in the mean time.
They’re speaking about bringing down NHS ready lists, getting 3 million folks off sick lists and again into work.
That in itself can be pretty transformative for tax receipts.
Properly, really one factor which we’ve not talked about but really is Nigel Farage.
That is actually fairly attention-grabbing.
So Nigel Farage, having stated he was off to America principally to assist Donald Trump, all of a sudden simply turned to vary his thoughts and have become chief of Reform UK.
They surged within the polls.
They’re inflicting all kinds of issues for the Tories.
However on the similar time this week, we have had some analysis out exhibiting belief in politics plummeting.
And the rationale for that is fairly attention-grabbing that it’s depart voters who had been principally promised the earth through the 2016 referendum, tighter border controls, financial prosperity.
And shock, shock, this miracle world that they had been promised hasn’t materialized.
However on the similar time, the person who made all these guarantees, Nigel Farage, he noticed within the polls.
So it is actually very counterintuitive that the person who principally instructed lots of people to say a pack of untruths for the 2016 referendum is all of a sudden now again as a well-liked politician.
Properly, he can distance himself from all these guarantees which had been actually made by Boris Johnson as a result of Nigel Farage was by no means in authorities.
He failed seven occasions to turn into an MP.
That is his eighth try in Clackton.
So he can kind of distance himself from these guarantees that had been made and kind of say, properly, if I used to be in cost, it could have been good.
It will have been sensible.
And that is, I believe, what he is happening.
I believe reform, we noticed a ballot yesterday, which was actually devastating for the Tories that confirmed that reform has really jumped them now into second place.
Whether or not that can play out with really getting MPs on the election stays to be seen.
I believe clearly Nigel Farage does have an excellent likelihood in Clackton, it appears.
If we settle for that Brexit was actually pushed about by discontent about excessive ranges of immigration, that is Farage’s case, is that, properly, what’s occurred since?
It is solely gone up and up and up ever since 2016.
These guarantees had been by no means delivered upon.
If we’re mentioning Farage on Europe, we have to look on the opposite facet and Ed Davey.
How do you assume his techniques are working, Rachael?
Ed Davey’s simply having an exquisite time whereas everybody else is out combating, water snowboarding, happening water slides.
I imply, he is getting column inches, is not he, by protection, by being a bit wacky and doing these kind of stunts primarily, which, , it is good.
It is type of refreshing when everybody’s simply speaking about how a lot they hate one another actually and the way terrible all the things is.
You’ve got simply received Ed Davey having a whale of a time taking place a water slide.
And that is episode one in all A Week’s A Lengthy Time in Westminster.
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