Why COVID-19 Forecasting and Mathematical Modeling Are Essential
Forecasts of illness burden assist inform public well being determination making by projecting the seemingly influence of COVID-19 within the subsequent few weeks. These forecasts are generated utilizing mathematical fashions by CDC companions within the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Forecasts are used to tell public well being choices about pandemic planning, useful resource allocation, implementation of social distancing measures, and different interventions. CDC is working carefully with state, tribal, native, and territorial well being departments, and different public well being companions, to reply to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bringing Collectively Forecasts for COVID-19 in the USA
CDC works with companions to convey collectively weekly forecasts primarily based on statistical or mathematical fashions that purpose to foretell nationwide and state numbers of recent COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the following 4 weeks.
Beforehand, forecasts additionally predicted the variety of new COVID-19 deaths and instances per week. Demise forecasts stopped in March 2023 and case forecasts stopped in February 2022. Archives of previous case and demise forecasts can be found and a machine readable database of previous forecasts is accessible at knowledge.cdc.gov
Ensemble forecasts
Forecasting groups within the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub predict numbers of hospitalizations utilizing totally different modeling strategies, varieties of knowledge (e.g., COVID-19 knowledge, demographic knowledge, mobility knowledge), and estimates of the impacts of interventions (e.g., social distancing, use of face coverings). These forecasts are developed independently and shared publicly right here. You will need to convey these forecasts collectively to assist perceive how they examine with one another and the way a lot uncertainty there may be about what could occur within the close to future.
An “ensemble” forecast combines every of the independently developed forecasts into one mixture forecast to enhance prediction over the following 4 weeks. This text, Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Illness 2019 (COVID-19) within the U.S. describes the “ensemble” forecast methodology and its usefulness as a real-time software to assist information coverage and planning.
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