Champions League final 16: tie-by-tie evaluation and predictions

Membership Brugge v Aston Villa

Villa produced in all probability their worst efficiency of the season in dropping the assembly of the edges within the group stage, Brugge profitable 1-0 with a penalty awarded after Tyrone Mings, not realising a useless ball had been taken, picked up the ball. Villa could be glad about that: had they taken a degree from that recreation they’d have been going through Bayern within the final 16. That mentioned, as home kind has stagnated, the victory over Bayern, a repeat of the scoreline from the 1982 European Cup remaining, in all probability represents the excessive level of their season to this point. Domestically this hasn’t been an excellent marketing campaign for Brugge both. They lie eight factors behind Racing Genk however for them too the Champions League has offered salvation. They sneaked into the playoff with three wins however then had been a lot the higher facet towards Atalanta, profitable dwelling and away.

Verdict: Slender Aston Villa win

Borussia Dortmund v Lille

Lille had been maybe the most important shock of the league stage, beating Atlético and Actual Madrid and hammering Feyenoord as they completed seventh. Canada’s Jonathan David, who scored six occasions, is clearly a harmful entrance man however a scarcity of creativity could maintain them again; there’s a motive why they’re fifth in Ligue 1, having scored eight objectives fewer than any facet above them. This has been a troublesome season for Dortmund, who’re eleventh within the Bundesliga. Nuri Sahin was sacked after 4 straight defeats after the winter break and, whereas three wins in seven underneath Niko Kovac isn’t a startling uptick, the Guinean centre-forward Serhou Guirassy has hit kind and that run did embody a powerful 3-0 win at Sporting within the playoffs – albeit Sporting aren’t the facet they had been earlier than the departure of Ruben Amorim.

Verdict: Slender Lille win

Actual Madrid v Atlético Madrid

Actual Madrid lie one level and one place above Atlético in La Liga, and each league conferences this season completed 1-1, so it needs to be tight – though on all 5 earlier events they’ve met in European competitors, Actual Madrid have come out on prime. Atlético had been the shape staff in Europe till final month’s defeat at Leganés, having gained 15 in a row, a run that enabled them to surge again after two early defeats to qualify fifth within the league section. Despite the fact that outcomes have dipped barely over the previous month, they’ve misplaced solely considered one of their previous 23, as Diego Simeone continues to defy conference. As Kylian Mbappé demonstrated along with his hat-trick towards Manchester Metropolis on Wednesday, he’s lastly starting to settle at Madrid, however this stays a battle between a staff primarily based on self-discipline and organisation and one reliant on the inspiration of good people.

Verdict: Slender Actual Madrid win

Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen

The edges drew 1-1 in Munich in September earlier than a goalless draw on the BayArena final week, a recreation during which Leverkusen regarded a lot the higher facet and hit the woodwork twice. Bayern are eight factors clear on the prime of the Bundesliga however doubts stay about Vincent Kompany, largely due to performances in Europe. They misplaced to Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord within the group stage, and squeaked by their playoff towards Celtic solely with an injury-time winner after a efficiency during which they regarded worryingly sluggish and mannered. Following final season’s undefeated Bundesliga success was all the time going to be troublesome for Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen facet, however whereas they’ve in all probability drawn too many video games, they’ve misplaced solely as soon as within the league. Group-stage outcomes had been a blended bag: Leverkusen had been the one facet to beat Inter, however they misplaced at Atlético and had been nicely overwhelmed at Liverpool. Florian Wirtz’s current kind may very well be decisive.

Verdict: Slender Leverkusen win

PSV v Arsenal

Defensively, Arsenal are the most effective staff within the Premier League, and solely Inter conceded fewer within the league stage, however that they had goalscoring points even earlier than their entrance three went down with hamstring accidents. Inter had been the one staff to beat them within the league stage and so they have misplaced solely twice within the Premier League. Given Mikel Arteta’s emphasis on management, two-leg ties could go well with them, however set performs and Mikel Merino is probably not adequate sources of objectives. Peter Bosz’s facet misplaced to Juventus within the league section, then misplaced to them once more within the first leg of their playoff, however victory within the second leg noticed them by after additional time. Second within the Eredivisie, PSV are a typical Bosz facet, stuffed with objectives and leaky on the again. When the edges met in final season’s group, they drew in Eindhoven however Arsenal had been 4-0 winners on the Emirates.

Verdict: Snug Arsenal win

Feyenoord v Inter

Six wins, a draw at Manchester Metropolis and just one defeat, by Leverkusen, noticed Inter navigate the group stage with consolation. Most spectacular was their defensive document: one objective conceded in these eight video games, though they’ve been much less stingy in Serie A. Lautaro Martínez, in the meantime, continues to be a ahead who divides opinion, by some means concurrently prolific and profligate. Feyenoord, fourth within the Eredivisie, sacked Brian Priske final week and are but to nominate a full-time substitute. Their group stage was erratic: they got here from 3-0 down to attract with Manchester Metropolis, gained at Benfica, beat Bayern 3-0 and but additionally went down 6-1 at Lille. Most confusingly, their playoff win over Milan, underneath the interim Pascal Bosschaart, was primarily based on containment. A lot will rely upon the battle of the Inter wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Federico Di Marco and Feyenoord’s large forwards Anis Moussa and Igor Paixão.

Verdict: Snug Inter win

Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool

Prime of the Premier League, Liverpool additionally topped the Champions League group, however they don’t seem to be taking part in in addition to they had been after they outplayed Actual Madrid in November. They’ve did not win seven of their previous 14 video games and, whereas it’s true that none of their three defeats in that spell had been significantly consequential, it’s additionally true that league kind has turn into scratchier, most notably within the second half of Sunday’s weirdly anxious win over Wolves. Obliterating French sides has hardly ever been an issue for Paris Saint-Germain, so it was no nice shock after they thrashed Brest 10-0 on combination within the playoffs. And whereas it was a battle to get there, after one victory from their first 5 ties, PSG have gained their previous 5 Champions League video games, a run that features the 4-2 demolition of Manchester Metropolis. This new celebrity-free PSG could also be discovering their toes.

Verdict: Slender PSG win

Barcelona v Benfica

Their assembly final month produced arguably the tie of the league stage as Barcelona gained 5-4, a recreation that highlighted the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of either side. No staff scored extra within the league section, however no facet within the prime half conceded greater than Barcelona, who would have completed prime had they overwhelmed relatively than drawn with Atalanta on the ultimate day. A run of 4 wins after 4 with no win has taken them again to the highest of La Liga. Benfica have an analogous vitality: underneath Bruno Lage they’re a a lot breezier facet than his Wolves ever had been, with objectives all through the facet. Even the second leg of their playoff towards Monaco, as they protected a 1-0 lead, ended up as a 3-3 nerve-shredder. Ángel Di María, whose capability to orchestrate breaks stays supreme regardless of his lack of tempo, needs to be again from hamstring issues to play.

Verdict: Slender Barcelona win