Azerbaijan escalates uncommon standoff with Russia over downing of passenger airplane

Azerbaijan is escalating its uncommon standoff with the Kremlin because the fallout from the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger jet continues, highlighting Russia’s diminishing affect throughout the previous Soviet Union.

Thirty-eight individuals have been killed when an Azerbaijan Airways airplane crashed on 25 December close to the town of Aktau in Kazakhstan after rerouting throughout the Caspian Sea from southern Russia.

After the incident, Azerbaijan’s authoritarian president, Ilham Aliyev, accused Russia of by accident capturing down the airplane with its air defence and criticised Moscow for making an attempt to “hush up” the difficulty for days, which he stated brought about “shock, remorse and rightful indignation” in Baku. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, quickly issued a uncommon apology for the “tragic incident”, however stopped in need of admitting Russia was accountable.

However within the weeks since, Moscow has struggled to defuse tensions with the oil-rich nation on its southern border.

On Wednesday, the APA information company, which has ties to the Azerbaijani authorities, reported that Baku was making ready to attraction to “a world court docket” over Russia’s alleged downing of the airplane.

“Information and proof are being collected, and preparations are beneath technique to attraction to a world court docket,” APA wrote in an article laced with scathing accusations of Moscow’s makes an attempt “to evade duty”.

The id of those that gave the order to fireside and people who opened hearth is understood to the Azerbaijani facet … The Russian facet intends to create a ‘Malaysia Boeing-2’ scenario,” the article continued, referencing Russia’s efforts to disclaim duty for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airways Flight MH17, which investigators concluded was shot down over japanese Ukraine by pro-Russian militias.

APA added that until Moscow overtly admits guilt and takes duty, Baku would take additional steps.

The article, which observers imagine might solely have been revealed with approval from native authorities in tightly managed Azerbaijan, got here a day after a report by Kazakh officers that stated the airplane had sustained exterior harm and was riddled with holes in its fuselage.

The report was cautiously worded and didn’t say what had brought about the harm, together with to the airplane’s stabilisers, hydraulics and trim methods.

Western specialists have beforehand stated the plane was most likely shot at from Russia.

Commenting on the Kazakh report, the Kremlin stated it was too early to attract conclusions.

Moscow’s continued silence has pissed off officers in Azerbaijan.

“We’d have anticipated Russia to publicly take duty for capturing down the airplane and compensate the victims,” stated a supply within the Azerbaijani overseas coverage institution who requested for anonymity so he might converse freely.

“As an alternative, Russia simply ignores the crash, hoping it might go away. It’s condescending, they’re wanting down on us,” the supply added.

On Thursday, tensions additional spilt out within the open when Azerbaijan ordered Moscow to close down the Russian Home cultural centre in Baku.

The venue is operated by Rossotrudnichestvo, a Russian federal company broadly seen as a car for Russian comfortable energy and sometimes suspected of doubling as a entrance for espionage and covert operations.

Concurrently, Azerbaijani state media reported that Baku had despatched a uncommon cargo of non-military assist to help Ukraine.

Moscow’s spat with Baku comes at a time when Russia is beginning to lose its maintain on its former yard.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened fears of Russian aggression in some nations and compelled even its allies to rethink Moscow’s position as a secure accomplice.

Weakened and preoccupied with its battle in Ukraine, Russia can also be more and more seen as an unreliable ally and safety guarantor.

Azerbaijan’s longtime rival, Armenia, publicly broke with the Kremlin after Russian peacekeeping forces failed to stop Azerbaijan from sending its troops in 2023 to grab management of Nagorno-Karabakh, a small, ethnic-Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan.

Armenia turned the primary nation to go away the Russia-led army alliance, the Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO), turning to the west and Iran for help.

Final week, the Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, even signalled his intention to pursue EU membership.

In neighbouring Georgia, the third Caucasus nation, tens of 1000’s of individuals have been taking to the streets for months over the federal government’s perceived closeness to Moscow.

For a very long time, Azerbaijan appeared to defy the development, with Aliyev and Putin rising nearer, united by their authoritarian and intolerant outlook.

Nonetheless, Moscow’s response to the airplane crash “critically strained relations”, stated the supply inside Azerbaijan’s overseas coverage institution.

On the identical time, Azerbaijan’s assertive rhetoric indicators that, buoyed by its 2023 victory over Armenia, Baku is more and more prepared to problem Moscow, the once-dominant regional energy.

Azerbaijan’s confidence can also be fueled by its financial returns from the west’s rejection of Russian power, because the EU has turned to Azerbaijan to assist scale back its reliance on Moscow’s fossil fuels.

Nonetheless, Azerbaijan and Russia stay deeply intertwined economically and politically, and observers warn towards declaring a definitive cut up.

Azerbaijan has strengthened its financial ties with Russia in recent times, with Moscow more and more counting on Azerbaijan as a vital transit hub.

Positioned on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan serves as an important transit hub for Moscow, facilitating the cargo of products to and from Iran and Persian Gulf ports as Russia seeks new markets and methods to bypass western sanctions.

Highlighting their shared pursuits, some in Moscow imagine that an earnest Russian apology might defuse the tensions.

“Azerbaijan just isn’t solely glad with the response of the Russian authorities to the airplane crash. The very fact is, it’s completely clear that the airplane was shot down by Russian air defences – by mistake, after all – however nonetheless shot down,” stated Sergei Markov, a Russian political analyst near the Kremlin.

“If Russia apologises, Azerbaijan will gladly put the difficulty to relaxation,” Markov added.

However others aren’t so certain.

“It’s evident that Baku will proceed to search for causes to escalate tensions with Russia,” wrote Mikhail Zvinchuk, a Russian army analyst with hyperlinks to the defence ministry.

“The crash of the Azal airplane has merely served as a pretext to bolster beforehand hidden grievances.”