Assad leaves behind a fragmented nation – stabilizing Syria can be a serious problem for fractured opposition and exterior backers

The brutal 54-year reign of the Assad household in Syria appears to be like to be over.

In a matter of days, opposition forces took the main metropolis of Aleppo earlier than advancing southward into different government-controlled areas of Hama, Homs and eventually, on Dec 7, 2024, the capital, Damascus.

The offensive was all of the extra astonishing provided that the 13-year civil battle had largely been in a stalemate since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey.

Studies counsel President Bashar al-Assad has resigned and left the nation. However what has he left behind and what occurs subsequent?

As an knowledgeable on Center East safety, I consider the opposition forces’ capacity to keep up unity can be essential within the transition to a post-Assad Syria. Because the civil battle began in 2011, the various opposition factions in Syria have been fractured by ideological variations and the pursuits of exterior backers – and that is still true regardless of their present victory.

In the meantime, the fast change of fortunes in Syria’s civil battle poses severe questions for these international locations which have backed one facet or the opposite within the battle. For Iran and Russia, the autumn of their ally Assad will harm regional aspirations. For the backers of parts of the opposition – notably Turkey but additionally the U.S., each of which preserve a navy presence in Syria – there can be challenges, too.

Fears of a ‘catastrophic success’

Iran, the U.S., Russia and Turkey have been essential gamers all through Syria’s civil battle.

The latest opposition offensive got here as Assad’s three key allies — Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — have been stretched skinny. Russia’s deal with Ukraine and Iran’s setbacks from Israeli strikes have restricted their capacity to supply Assad strong help, whereas Hezbollah appeared hesitant to commit further fighters, because it had carried out beforehand.

Then, on Dec. 2, as opposition forces have been on the transfer, Russia started withdrawing naval belongings from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria. This erosion of exterior backing considerably undermined Assad’s capability to regroup and mount an efficient counteroffensive.

The U.S. will little doubt welcome this diminished Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However concern in Washington has already been aired over a situation of “catastrophic success” during which Assad is changed by an Islamist group that many within the West see as terrorists.

It was members of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that spearheaded a lot of the opposition features in Syria, combating alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military.

And whereas Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has indirectly focused the U.S. troops stationed within the northeast – which is beneath the management of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces – instability and the potential for clashes between opposition factions and U.S. allies may improve the dangers for the 900 Syria-based American personnel.

A fragmented panorama

The truth that completely different opposition teams have taken management of assorted once-government-held areas factors to an important reality: Syria is de facto partitioned. The northwest is managed by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military. The northeast is beneath the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by america.

Regardless of a shared objective of ousting Assad and the joint offensive on Aleppo, conflicts between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Nationwide Military are frequent. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani goals to say management over opposition-held areas, together with these at the moment managed by the Syrian Nationwide Military.

And the Syrian Nationwide Military and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham preserve advanced, usually conflicting relationships with the Syrian Democratic Forces, formed by ideological, territorial and strategic variations. The Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military incessantly engages in direct clashes with the Syrian Protection Forces, which Turkey views as a terrorist group and an offshoot of the Kurdistan Employees Get together it has been combating in southern Turkey for greater than 4 a long time.

The opposition’s inner fragmentation could weaken its capacity to convey stability to Syria in the long term.

Adjustment issues

Assad’s fall can have main implications for these international locations which have a stake within the area.

Iran’s grand technique of preserving the “Shia Crescent” — connecting Tehran to Beirut by way of Baghdad and Damascus and within the course of countering Sunni Islamist factions — has failed.

For Washington, Assad’s departure doesn’t essentially match any hoped-for final result.

The U.S. has prioritized balancing, containing and probably diminishing Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However till not too long ago that didn’t imply the removing of Assad. The Biden administration had even hinted in early December that it might be ready to raise sanctions on Syria if Assad severed ties with Iran and Hezbollah.

There was additionally speak of Assad’s authorities allying with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. However as metropolis after metropolis fell to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, it grew to become more and more unlikely that the Kurdish group would align with the weakening Assad forces – particularly as Kurdish forces themselves made vital territorial features.

Syrian Democratic Forces might want to adapt in response to the autumn of Assad. This can be doubly true if, as many anticipate and President-elect Donald Trump has hinted at, the U.S. withdraws from Syria.
At present, the 900 U.S. troops are in jap Syria, alongside a navy base in Al-Tanf, situated close to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders.

Ought to American forces withdraw, the Syrian Democratic Forces and the autonomous area it administers — often known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria — would wish to negotiate their autonomy with each completely different factions of the opposition and Syrian neighbor Turkey.

A Kurdish and Islamist alliance?

The precarious function of Syrian Democratic Forces within the transition to the post-Assad period may make for a major international coverage headache for the U.S.

Given Turkey’s historical past of navy incursions and campaigns towards the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern cities like Afrin and Kobani, the Kurdish group could must align with some factions of the opposition, probably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ought to the U.S. ultimately withdraw.

Of late, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has largely prevented antagonizing the Syrian Democratic Forces. Certainly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s efforts to rebrand and reasonable itself are notable, particularly given its origins as a Salafist group with ties to al-Qaida.

By adopting a spread of insurance policies like issuing an amnesty for Syrian military personnel, facilitating evacuation agreements and utilizing the language of constructing an ethnically and religiously numerous governance construction, the Islamist group has tried to melt its hard-line picture and acquire favor – or no less than neutrality – from worldwide stakeholders, just like the U.S.

But skepticism about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s final goals persists.

Strategic calculations for Turkey

Turkey’s place on Syria now’s equally advanced. Turkey is house to three.6 million Syrian refugees — the most important refugee-hosting nation globally. A protracted financial downturn and rising anti-refugee sentiment had pressured Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sign a willingness to interact with Assad previous to the opposition offensive.

Turkey’s hope was that normalized relations with Syria would assist facilitate refugee return and deal with considerations a few potential Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.

However Assad dismissed such overtures, and he intensified airstrikes on Idlib – triggering new waves of displacement close to the Turkish border.

Turkey’s Syria coverage can be intently linked to its renewed peace course of with the Kurdistan Employees’ Get together. These talks reportedly embody discussions concerning the potential launch of imprisoned Kurdistan Employees’ Get together chief Abdullah Öcalan – whose affect runs deep in Kurdish-led areas in northern Syria.

The prospect for a brand new Syria

The obvious finish of the Assad household’s rule after half a century of brutal oppression signifies a pivotal second for Syria – providing a possibility to rebuild the nation on foundations of inclusivity, pluralism and stability.

Reaching this imaginative and prescient depends upon the opposition factions’ capacity to navigate the immense challenges of transition. This contains fostering unity amongst numerous teams, addressing grievances from years of battle and establishing governance buildings that mirror Syria’s ethnic, spiritual and political range. That can be no simple activity.