Assad leaves behind a fragmented nation – stabilizing it will likely be a serious problem for fractured opposition and exterior backers

The brutal 54-year reign of the Assad household in Syria appears to be over.

In a matter of days, opposition forces took the foremost metropolis of Aleppo earlier than advancing southward into different government-controlled areas of Hama, Homs and at last, on Dec 7, 2024, the capital, Damascus.

The offensive was all of the extra astonishing on condition that the 13-year civil battle had largely been in a stalemate since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey.

Stories recommend President Bashar al-Assad has resigned and left the nation. However what has he left behind and what occurs subsequent?

As an skilled on Center East safety, I consider the opposition forces’ skill to keep up unity will likely be crucial within the transition to a post-Assad Syria. Because the civil battle began in 2011, the various opposition factions in Syria have been fractured by ideological variations and the pursuits of exterior backers – and that continues to be true regardless of their present victory.

In the meantime, the fast change of fortunes in Syria’s civil battle poses severe questions for these international locations which have backed one aspect or the opposite within the battle. For Iran and Russia, the autumn of their ally Assad will injury regional aspirations. For the backers of components of the opposition – notably Turkey but additionally the U.S., each of which preserve a army presence in Syria – there will likely be challenges, too.

Fears of a ‘catastrophic success’

Iran, the U.S., Russia and Turkey have been essential gamers all through Syria’s civil battle.

The latest opposition offensive got here as Assad’s three key allies — Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — had been stretched skinny. Russia’s deal with Ukraine and Iran’s setbacks from Israeli strikes have restricted their skill to offer Assad sturdy help, whereas Hezbollah appeared hesitant to commit further fighters, because it had finished beforehand.

Then, on Dec. 2, as opposition forces had been on the transfer, Russia started withdrawing naval belongings from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria. This erosion of exterior backing considerably undermined Assad’s capability to regroup and mount an efficient counteroffensive.

The U.S. will little question welcome this diminished Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However concern in Washington has already been aired over a state of affairs of “catastrophic success” during which Assad is changed by an Islamist group that many within the West see as terrorists.

It was members of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that spearheaded a lot of the opposition beneficial properties in Syria, preventing alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military.

And whereas Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has circuitously focused the U.S. troops stationed within the northeast – which is below the management of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces – instability and the potential for clashes between opposition factions and U.S. allies may enhance the dangers for the 900 Syria-based American personnel.

A fragmented panorama

The truth that totally different opposition teams have taken management of varied once-government-held areas factors to a vital reality: Syria is de facto partitioned. The northwest is managed by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military. The northeast is below the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by the US.

Regardless of a shared aim of ousting Assad and the joint offensive on Aleppo, conflicts between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Nationwide Military are frequent. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani goals to claim management over opposition-held areas, together with these at the moment managed by the Syrian Nationwide Military.

And the Syrian Nationwide Military and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham preserve advanced, usually conflicting relationships with the Syrian Democratic Forces, formed by ideological, territorial and strategic variations. The Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military regularly engages in direct clashes with the Syrian Protection Forces, which Turkey views as a terrorist group and an offshoot of the Kurdistan Staff Get together it has been preventing in southern Turkey for greater than 4 many years.

The opposition’s inner fragmentation might weaken its skill to carry stability to Syria in the long term.

Adjustment issues

Assad’s fall can have main implications for these international locations which have a stake within the area.

Iran’s grand technique of preserving the “Shia Crescent” — connecting Tehran to Beirut by Baghdad and Damascus and within the course of countering Sunni Islamist factions — has failed.

For Washington, Assad’s departure doesn’t essentially match any hoped-for final result.

The U.S. has prioritized balancing, containing and doubtlessly diminishing Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However till lately that didn’t imply the elimination of Assad. The Biden administration had even hinted in early December that it will be ready to elevate sanctions on Syria if Assad severed ties with Iran and Hezbollah.

There was additionally discuss of Assad’s authorities allying with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. However as metropolis after metropolis fell to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, it turned more and more unlikely that the Kurdish group would align with the weakening Assad forces – particularly as Kurdish forces themselves made important territorial beneficial properties.

Syrian Democratic Forces might want to adapt in response to the autumn of Assad. This will likely be doubly true if, as many anticipate and President-elect Donald Trump has hinted at, the U.S. withdraws from Syria.
Presently, the 900 U.S. troops are in japanese Syria, alongside a army base in Al-Tanf, situated close to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders.

Ought to American forces withdraw, the Syrian Democratic Forces and the autonomous area it administers — often called the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria — would want to negotiate their autonomy with each totally different factions of the opposition and Syrian neighbor Turkey.

A Kurdish and Islamist alliance?

The precarious function of Syrian Democratic Forces within the transition to the post-Assad period may make for a big international coverage headache for the U.S.

Given Turkey’s historical past of army incursions and campaigns towards the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern cities like Afrin and Kobani, the Kurdish group might have to align with some factions of the opposition, possible Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ought to the U.S. finally withdraw.

Of late, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has largely averted antagonizing the Syrian Democratic Forces. Certainly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s efforts to rebrand and average itself are notable, particularly given its origins as a Salafist group with ties to al-Qaida.

By adopting a variety of insurance policies like issuing an amnesty for Syrian military personnel, facilitating evacuation agreements and utilizing the language of constructing an ethnically and religiously numerous governance construction, the Islamist group has tried to melt its hardline picture and acquire favor – or not less than neutrality – from worldwide stakeholders, just like the U.S.

But skepticism about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s final aims persists.

Strategic calculations for Turkey

Turkey’s place on Syria now could be equally advanced. Turkey is house to three.6 million Syrian refugees — the biggest refugee-hosting nation globally. A protracted financial downturn and rising anti-refugee sentiment had pressured Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sign a willingness to interact with Assad previous to the opposition offensive.

Turkey’s hope was that normalized relations with Syria would assist facilitate refugee return and deal with considerations a couple of potential Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.

However Assad dismissed such overtures, and intensified airstrikes on Idlib – triggering new waves of displacement close to the Turkish border.

Turkey’s Syria coverage can also be intently linked to its renewed peace course of with the Kurdistan Staff’ Get together. These talks reportedly embrace discussions concerning the potential launch of imprisoned Kurdistan Staff’ Get together chief Abdullah Öcalan – whose affect runs deep in Kurdish-led areas in northern Syria.

The prospect for a brand new Syria

The obvious finish of Assad’s rule after half a century of brutal oppression signifies a pivotal second for Syria – providing a possibility to rebuild the nation on foundations of inclusivity, pluralism and stability.

Reaching this imaginative and prescient is determined by the opposition factions’ skill to navigate the immense challenges of transition. This consists of fostering unity amongst numerous teams, addressing grievances from years of battle and establishing governance buildings that mirror Syria’s ethnic, non secular and political variety. That will likely be no simple activity.