Anti-Syrian violence in Turkey complicates normalization course of between Turkey and Syria

Probabilities of a rapprochement between regional rivals Turkey and Syria have been raised momentarily on July 22, 2024, with information that the leaders of each international locations have been set for a much-anticipated assembly geared toward resolving long-standing variations. Inside hours, Turkish sources dismissed the rumors of an imminent sit-down between the 2 leaders as false.

Delicacy over the matter is comprehensible. A current surge in anti-Syrian violence in Turkey has highlighted the fragility of efforts to revive diplomatic ties with Syria, which have been severed on the onset of the Syrian civil warfare.

That battle affected Turkey in a lot of methods. Ankara sided with opposition forces in Syria and ultimately intervened militarily, occupying elements of the nation’s north. In the meantime, preventing led to an inflow of thousands and thousands of refugees into Turkey, scary anti-Syrian sentiment and, extra not too long ago, violence.

On June 30, 2024, Syrian-owned properties, autos and companies within the central Turkish metropolis of Kayseri have been vandalized and set on fireplace following allegations of sexual abuse in opposition to a Syrian man. Fueled by social media, assaults quickly unfold and sparked essentially the most violent anti-Syrian riots so far in Turkish areas with giant Syrian refugee populations.

It additionally prompted or infected violence in opposition-held northwest Syria in opposition to Turkish navy positions. The area was already on edge following feedback from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that signaled his need to revive relations with the Syrian authorities – one thing that will have profound penalties for opposition-held areas.

Detente with Damascus?

Erdogan has not too long ago known as for a “new period with Syria” following years of antagonism between the Turkish chief and his Syrian counterpart.

Since common uprisings escalated right into a full-blown civil warfare in 2012, Erdogan has seen Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as accountable for persecuting and displacing Syrians, making negotiations between the neighboring international locations tough.

However now Erdogan has urged he’s prepared to satisfy with Assad. His hope is {that a} return to normalized relations would assist facilitate the return of three.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey and handle the shared concern of a possible Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.

As a political scientist specializing in safety within the Center East, I can see how a diplomatic breakthrough may gain advantage each leaders. For Erdogan, it might alleviate tensions over Syrian refugees; for Assad it represents an extra signal that his regional isolation has come to an finish. However elsewhere, it complicates the already advanced and risky nature of Turkey’s engagement in Syria, notably relating to its relationship with Syrian refugees and opposition teams in northwest Syria.

Anti-Syrian riots and social media

The outburst of anti-Syrian violence in Turkey got here simply days after Erdogan first signaled the opportunity of assembly with Assad. The Turkish president accused opposition events of stoking racism and fueling tensions. In the meantime, Inside Minister Ali Yerlikaya pointed to on-line campaigns stirring up violence, noting that 38% of the “provocative and unfavourable” posts on the night of the rioting was produced by bot accounts.

Whoever was behind the marketing campaign to stoke animosity, it fed into present tensions in opposition-held northwest Syria. Tons of of offended Syrians took to the streets in a number of cities, attacking Turkish vehicles and eradicating Turkish flags, whereas demanding the withdrawal of Turkish forces. In response, Turkey closed its borders with northwest Syria.

The rising anti-Turkish sentiment in opposition-held areas of Syria spotlight the difficult nature of Turkey’s try at rapprochement with the regime in Damascus. Having established Turkey as an ardent supporter of anti-Assad forces, Erdogan now stands accused of turning his again on his erstwhile allies. Moreover, to the refugees in Turkey who fled Assad’s crackdown, a deal that will see them returned would quantity to a betrayal.

After Erdogan’s intention to satisfy with Assad began to flow into within the media, some factions of the Syrian opposition dubbed it “Turkey’s sellout of the opposition.”

Some Syrian pundits claimed that normalization with Assad was a step towards the huge compelled return of refugees to Syria within the face of rising public calls for and electoral pressures. As was evident throughout the 2023 elections in Turkey, the return of refugees has grow to be a politicized concern within the nation.

All of this places Erdogan in a bind. Whereas he desires to placate the Turkish public, he doesn’t want to anger or reduce ties with the Syrian opposition, a gaggle that he had beforehand cultivated ties with as a potential ally in opposition to Kurdish independence.

Negotiating with Assad

For a while, negotiating with the Syrian regime was thought of a purple line by Erdogan’s Justice and Improvement Get together, recognized by its Turkish acronym AKP. The get together seen Assad as the principle actor accountable for the persecution and compelled displacement of Syrians.

And till not too long ago, Assad confirmed no real interest in assembly with Erdogan, as he blamed him for violence in Syria by the help of insurgent teams preventing the regime. Nonetheless, he not too long ago signaled that “he may meet with President Erdogan so long as the sovereignty of the Syrian state over all its territory is revered and all types of terrorism are fought.”

So why the diplomatic push for rapprochement now? A part of the reply lies in Erdogan’s need to return Syrian refugees dwelling in Turkey for home recognition causes. Even when he fails to succeed in an settlement, he can be able to inform a public more and more crucial of the “open doorways” coverage to Syrian refugees that engagement with Damascus has been tried however failed to provide any concrete outcomes.

After which there may be the priority shared by Turkey and Syria over the materialization of a de facto Kurdish state, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, also referred to as Rojava, in northeast Syria. Rojava is supported by the U.S., but acknowledged as a terrorist group by Turkey.

If the U.S. withdraws troops from the area, Erdogan would want to barter Turkey’s coverage towards northeast Syria with Assad.

But, each leaders are at the moment in a weak place to dictate the phrases of the brand new order in northeast Syria. Restoring diplomatic ties would allow each international locations to coordinate efforts in opposition to a shared purpose of stopping an autonomous Kurdish state.

Foreseeing the impacts of a doable rapprochement on their political pursuits, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria calls the diplomatic efforts a “conspiracy in opposition to the Syrian folks” and a “clear legitimization of the Turkish occupation” of beforehand Kurdish-majority areas. The U.S. additionally opposes normalization of relations with Syria absent “genuine progress” towards a political resolution to the battle.

Center East’s new realities

Erdogan’s try to revive relations with Syria may additionally be seen as an adjustment to the brand new political realities within the Center East. The United Arab Emirates restored diplomatic relations with Syria in 2018. The Arab League additionally normalized relations with Syria and readmitted it in 2023. Saudi Arabia additionally reopened its embassy in Damascus in 2024.

In different phrases, Syria’s isolation within the area has successfully come to an finish. On this regard, Ankara might have concluded that it’s in its greatest curiosity to have diplomatic relations with a rustic that it wants to barter and coordinate with on a collection of navy, political and migration-related points.