Lower than every week after the deposed Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, Turkish officers raised their flag over the embassy in Damascus. Whereas most of the shutters on the palatial villa remained closed, the purple and white crescent flew over the embassy rooftop for the primary time in 12 years.
It was a second preceded days earlier than by the arrival within the Syrian capital of Turkey’s spy chief, Ibrahim Kalin. On this speedy aftermath of the tip of the Assad regime, Kalin rode in a black sedan pushed by the chief of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmed al-Sharaa, who sported civilian gown as he chauffeured Kalin by means of the crowded streets. The spy chief prayed beneath the hallowed archways of the Umayyad mosque, earlier than rising to surprised crowds gathered to see the primary overseas dignitary to go to the brand new Syrian management.
Dareen Khalifa of the Worldwide Disaster Group describes Kalin’s go to to the Syrian capital as “a victory lap,” with Ankara rising as a serious beneficiary from the brand new authorities in Damascus. The toppling of Assad has vindicated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s method on Syria at house in Turkey, granted Ankara new alternatives in an influence battle throughout Kurdish areas within the north-east and afforded it recent affect as Syria rebuilds.
“Relations between HTS and Turkey shouldn’t be overestimated, it’s not a proxy relationship, however Turkey was sensible to attend till issues had been settled after which go in full drive with Kalin’s go to and different senior individuals as effectively,” says Khalifa.
Ankara had for months stalled HTS and delayed the launch of the group’s offensive, analysts mentioned, and as a substitute tried to make use of a gathering with Russian and Iranian officers in early November within the hope of lastly bringing Assad to the negotiating desk. Erdoğan has mentioned that Assad rebuffed his provide to “talk about the way forward for Syria collectively,” unknowingly lacking his final likelihood to stop the sweeping army offensive that ended his household’s 53-year brutal rule.
Not solely did Assad refuse, however his forces continued to strike the lone rebel-held pocket of Idlib managed by HTS, fuelling the group’s need to launch their offensive. Turkey appealed to Assad’s Russian allies, Khalifa believes, asking Moscow to talk to the Syrian chief and cease the strikes, with little outcome. By the point Sharaa, who was previously identified by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, approached Ankara later in November, notifying them that his forces had been able to launch an offensive, they relented due to Moscow’s incapacity to cease Assad.
“In the end Turkey mentioned OK, educate them a lesson, however Ankara didn’t realise that HTS would seize Aleppo, not to mention the whole nation,” she says. “Nobody thought it might turn into one thing this huge. Ankara knew what sort of manoeuvre that HTS would possibly pull, that they might give the impression they had been going in a single route, east, when truly they needed to go south. Nevertheless it wasn’t greater than that.”
By the point the insurgents had massed across the outskirts of Homs, pushing south on the freeway resulting in Damascus two days earlier than Assad fled, Erdoğan publicly threw his assist behind what he known as “this march of opposition”. Turkey was monitoring the insurgency intently by means of its community of intelligence channels in addition to public studies, he mentioned, talking exterior a mosque in Istanbul including: “Might this march in Syria proceed with none accidents and troubles.”
Gönül Tol of the Center East Institute says the triumph of the insurgency nonetheless stunned Turkey, leading to what she phrases “a catastrophic success” from Ankara’s perspective. “This actually stunned Ankara, and naturally now they’re banking on it – it opens up alternatives significantly for Turkish overseas coverage and for Erdoğan domestically, however clearly there are additionally dangers,” she says.
The Turkish president has lengthy tried a home balancing act on the problem of Syrian refugees, mediating between a fastidiously crafted public picture as a frontrunner of the Islamic world who welcomed displaced Muslims and the needs of his nationalist coalition companions to expel most of the 3.2 million Syrians in Turkey.
Assad’s fall, says Tol, has allowed Erdoğan a method to each bolster his model because the chief who did essentially the most to guard Syrians whereas 1000’s go away, placating his nationalist backers. Turkish officers wasted no time: the overseas minister, Hakan Fidan, mentioned the day after Assad’s ousting that Syrians would return house, and an estimated 7,600 individuals had crossed the border by the tip of final week.
Fidan’s pledge that Turkish corporations would assist to rebuild Syria noticed shares in building and cement corporations rise the day after Assad was toppled, regardless of their broken status owing to widespread destruction after the lethal earthquakes that struck southern Turkey and northern Syria early final yr.
Whereas Ankara not too long ago started a tentative outreach to Kurdish militant teams it has lengthy thought to be terrorist organisations, Tol pointed to the sudden shifts inside Syria which have led to a pivot. Turkish-backed insurgent teams at the moment are routing US-backed Kurdish forces from cities throughout northern Syria, quickly extending their zone of management.
“Whereas all eyes are on Damascus it’s a free-for-all within the north-east, and Ankara is getting every thing it needs,” says Khalifa. “The city of Manbij fell to Turkish-backed forces with out making headlines, in order that they’re pushing within the north-east and getting away with it in ways in which would by no means have occurred earlier than.”
Talking throughout a convention on Syria in Jordan over the weekend, Fidan made Ankara’s technique plain. “We assist the authentic representatives of Syrian Kurds of their efforts to advocate for his or her rights in Damascus,” he mentioned, indicating that Turkey will solely settle for Kurdish illustration within the Syrian capital, however not elsewhere.
Turkish officers displaying up in Damascus, says Tol, might be utilizing their newfound leverage over Syria’s new rulers to make sure that no autonomous Kurdish administration takes maintain within the north-east.
“Submit-Assad Syria grants Turkey loads of leverage and HTS can use all the assistance it could actually get,” she says. The group is searching for to keep away from isolation and can use Turkey’s enter to make sure they finally achieve recognition from the worldwide group, she provides. However within the interim, Turkey stays their gateway to the surface world.
“Turkey will play an vital position, serving to HTS reconstruct and rebuild, plus Syria wants funding. Turkey will play an vital position each step of the way in which.”
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