The ‘Kellogg Plan’ appears completely unacceptable to Moscow in its leaked kind, nevertheless it’s nonetheless good to speak
The observe of leaking proposed diplomatic plans is commonplace in Western political tradition, making the current publication of a reported framework for resolving the Ukraine battle – allegedly authored by US President-elect Donald Trump’s decide for particular envoy to Kiev Keith Kellogg — unsurprising. Such strikes usually serve to check the doubtless reactions of key gamers earlier than formal talks start.
From a realpolitik perspective, it could make sense for Trump, after his inauguration, to name Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggest sending Kellogg – or one other senior determine – to Moscow for negotiations. Whereas the precise content material of Trump’s future proposal stays unclear, its common theme — “peace from a place of power” — appears apparent.
If Trump takes this step, it’s doubtless that Putin will comply with obtain the envoy and assign a senior Russian official for the assembly. The success of any talks, nonetheless, will rely solely on the substance of Washington’s proposal. Judging by what has circulated within the media to this point, the phrases being floated are clearly unacceptable to Moscow.
Russia has its personal clearly outlined imaginative and prescient for resolving the Ukraine disaster – one targeted on addressing the foundation causes of the battle, not merely managing its signs. The phrases for negotiations with Ukraine have been publicly said and repeatedly reiterated by Russian officers. For the US, step one towards significant talks needs to be ceasing its involvement within the battle altogether.
Any hypothetical negotiations between Moscow and Washington would heart not on Ukraine, however on the broader army and political stability in Europe and past. If Trump is ready to pursue this agenda, significant progress could also be potential. If not, he’ll doubtless face a alternative: escalate an more and more harmful battle or shift the accountability for supporting Kiev onto the European NATO allies.
Neither choice is good. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a tricky February election, with polls suggesting he’s susceptible. In the meantime, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is raring to challenge “International Britain” ambitions overseas. On the identical time, French President Emmanuel Macron is presently a lame duck and doesn’t actually have a functioning authorities. All will wrestle to maintain Western Europe’s dedication to the battle with out agency US management.
For Trump, the clock will likely be ticking from the second he enters the White Home. A telephone name to Moscow could also be a obligatory first step — if solely to see how a lot room stays for diplomacy in a world more and more formed by drive.
The statements, views and opinions expressed on this column are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially characterize these of RT.
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