Bangladesh’s embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the nation on Aug. 5, 2024, after weeks of protests which have resulted in scores of deaths.
Her departure is a landmark second, however one which has left the South Asian nation dealing with a energy vacuum into which the military – in the meanwhile, a minimum of – has stepped.
To know what led to the disaster and what might occur subsequent, The Dialog turned to Tazreena Sajjad, an professional on Bangladeshi politics at American College’s Faculty of Worldwide Service.
What sparked the demonstrations in Bangladesh?
The protests stem from long-running resentment over a quota system that noticed 56% of presidency positions in Bangladesh reserved for varied teams, together with 30% for the descendants of freedom fighters who fought within the 1971 Struggle of Independence.
This quota system has proved an infinite barrier to extremely coveted civil service positions for the nation’s massive youth inhabitants, lots of whom are unemployed.
It had additionally turn into a topic of controversy as a consequence of what number of of these quota jobs went to supporters of the ruling Awami League social gathering.
Underneath immense strain from an earlier scholar mobilization over the difficulty, Hasina abolished your complete quota system in 2018.
However in June 2024, the nation’s excessive court docket dominated that transfer unlawful, sparking a recent spherical of protests throughout the nation.
Then, in July, Bangladesh’s public universities noticed a sequence of walkouts by college and college students over new pension reforms that, if carried out, would contain wage deductions.
Initially, the protests had been peaceable, however an incendiary speech by Hasina – by which she steered that the scholars had been “rajakaar,” a time period used to establish pro-Pakistan collaborators throughout Bangladesh’s Struggle of Independence – infected tensions.
The Bangladesh Chhatra League – the armed wing of the Awami League – started attacking college students with tear gasoline and dwell bullets, with assist from the police. The Speedy Motion Battalion, a controversial paramilitary group with a historical past of extrajudicial killings, torture and enforced disappearances, was additionally deployed.
After a video of one of many first to be killed – a college scholar named Abu Sayeed – circulated on-line, extra joined the protests, resulting in an extra violent crackdown by police and armed teams.
It’s estimated that about 266 folks, principally college students, had been killed within the protests, together with a minimum of 32 kids.
The federal government closed colleges and universities, imposed a curfew and reduce web and telecommunications. In the meantime, scholar leaders had been arrested and coerced to withdraw their listing of calls for.
However this solely led to the declaration of a complete noncooperation motion and a large rebellion of protesters demanding Hasina’s fast resignation.
As hundreds of protesters gathered for a lengthy march to Dhaka in defiance of the curfew, the prime minister resigned and left the nation.
Is there a wider context to the political unrest?
Completely. Whereas consideration has targeted largely on the quota protests, a litany of grievances had piled up in opposition to the federal government.
Underneath Hasina’s rule, Bangladesh has seen GDP progress – however this has not translated into financial well-being for a lot of Bangladeshis. Lack of alternatives, excessive unemployment charges amongst youth and hovering inflation have been ongoing sources of pressure.
In the meantime, regardless of the Awami League espousing a zero-tolerance coverage in direction of corruption, cash laundering, bribery and nepotism scandals have dogged authorities ministers.
And since its landslide victory in 2008, the Awami League has eroded the nation’s democracy. For instance, in 2011 the federal government ended an association that allowed a 90-day caretaker administration, consisting of technocrats, to prepare elections and oversee transfers of energy.
Suppression of dissent has additionally grown. The harassment and detention of activists, opposition figures and human rights defenders have turn into extra frequent. In the meantime, there was criminalization of any criticism of the federal government, together with satire and social media posts.
Why is the 1971 conflict nonetheless related to Bangladeshi politics?
The Struggle of Independence stays central to Bangladesh’s identification and its politics.
Its seeds had been sown a long time earlier within the 1947 British partition of the Indian subcontinent. This resulted within the violent division of the state of Bengal, with the japanese half changing into East Pakistan.
After partition, West Pakistan tried to keep up political and financial dominance over East Pakistan, whereas on the similar time making an attempt to domesticate a singular nationwide identification – primarily based on their widespread Muslim majority populations – regardless of separate cultures and linguistic heritages.
Insurance policies to marginalize Bengali – the vernacular of 56% of then East Pakistanis – and “purify” East Pakistan from Hindu affect contributed to a backlash that noticed widespread scholar protests and rising requires independence.
In 1971, a West Pakistani navy incursion geared toward snuffing out pro-independence sentiments resulted in a genocidal conflict with East Pakistan that lasted 9 months and resulted within the deaths of 500,000 to three million Bangladeshis.
The circumstances of that conflict have formed Bangladesh’s politics ever since. The events which have dominated the nation’s politics, together with Hasina’s Awami League, ceaselessly politicized their Struggle of Independence credentials. Political leaders have additionally used 1971 as a method of legitimizing positions, shoring up assist, or delegitimizing opposition events.
Does Hasina’s exit mark the tip of Bangladesh’s political dynasties?
The resignation of Hasina indicators – a minimum of in the meanwhile – the tip of Awami League rule in Bangladesh.
International locations in South Asia, together with Bangladesh, have largely been formed by political dynasties. So the rejection of the Awami League, and the truth that many are additionally rejecting different established political events – the Bangladesh Nationalist Celebration, Jamaat-i-Islami and the Jatiya Celebration – is extraordinary.
These established events will little doubt attempt to regroup. Whereas the Awami League might not have the ability to successfully arrange within the close to future given public sentiment, the others will make a concerted effort to take part within the promised forthcoming elections.
For the second, there could also be a chance for Bangladesh to have recent voices and faces in politics, doubtlessly rising from the scholar motion.
What ought to we make of the navy taking interim management?
Since Bangladesh’s independence, the military has performed an enormous function in shaping the political trajectory of the nation.
From 1975 to 2011, Bangladesh skilled a minimum of 29 navy coups and counter-coups. It additionally skilled direct navy rule from 1977 to 1981 and between 1981 and 1990.
Given the military’s frequent incursion into Bangladesh politics, it’s not stunning that it has taken interim management of the nation now.
For a lot of Bangladeshis, this will likely characterize some stage of stability, given the political vacuum that has opened up and the uncertainty of the second.
Pupil leaders, nonetheless, have made it clear they don’t want navy involvement in politics. Seemingly heeding this name, Common Waker-uz-Zaman, the military chief of workers, has assured protesters that the military would meet their calls for.
However it stays to be seen whether or not the navy will preserve its guarantees and hand over full authority to a civilian interim administration.
What might occur subsequent?
It’s too early to invest what the long run holds for Bangladesh – the scenario is extraordinarily fluid and unfolding by the minute.
The abrupt departure of Hasina has been a explanation for aid and celebration among the many hundreds of thousands of protesters who helped result in an finish to her rule.
AFP through Getty Photographs
Protest leaders have expressed a transparent imaginative and prescient for an inclusive, corruption-free, democratic authorities. What they don’t need is an interim authorities that’s shaped with out their involvement and enter. Pupil leaders have put collectively a listing of candidates they wish to see within the interim authorities. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has accepted a task as chief adviser. In the meantime, Bangladesh Nationalist Celebration and Jamaat-i-Islami leaders are vying for positions within the interim authorities.
However political transitions are extraordinarily difficult and risky. There have been incidences of looting, arson and violence across the nation, in addition to assaults on the Hindu group.
Armed wings of the Islamist Jamaat-i-Islami and the Bangladesh Chhatra League are being blamed for a lot of the violence, which, it’s alleged, is carried out to delegitimize the protest motion. In response, college students and most of the people have stepped in to shield minority locations of worship.
Rumors and disinformation campaigns will definitely have some vital influence in a risky scenario.
In the meantime, the big injury carried out to the nation’s financial system by the political turmoil and navy curfew can even require consideration.
Neighboring international locations, notably India, are paying quite a lot of consideration to the risky scenario. Worldwide donors and strategic companions together with the U.S., EU, and China likewise await what comes subsequent, given Bangladesh’s regional geopolitics and the worldwide financial system.
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