On 5 November 2024, thousands and thousands of Individuals will head to the polls to decide on between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for president of the USA. The 2 candidates have supplied starkly totally different visions for the way forward for the nation. Because the election enters the ultimate stretch, the Guardian US is averaging nationwide and state polls to see how the 2 candidates are faring.
Newest polls
Polling common over a shifting 10-day interval
Guardian graphic. Supply: Evaluation of polls gathered by 538.
Newest evaluation: Nationally, Harris has a one-point benefit, 48% to 47%, over her Republican opponent, nearly an identical to final week. Such a bonus is nicely with the margin of errors of most polls. The battleground states, too, stay in a lifeless warmth.
However in a fractured political panorama that has featured threats of retribution from Trump, accusations of fascism and racism from Harris, and warnings that democracy itself is on the poll, the larger image – that uniformity, over a chronic interval – has seasoned observers scratching their heads.
– Robert Tait, 2 November
Polling over time
Polling common over a shifting 10-day interval. Every circle represents a person ballot consequence and is sized by 538’s pollster score
Notes on information
To calculate our polling averages, Guardian US took a mix of head-to-head and multi-candidate polls and calculated a rolling 10-day common for every candidate. Our tracker makes use of polls gathered by 538 and filters out lower-quality pollsters for nationwide polls. Our state polling averages use a decrease high quality threshold for inclusion as a result of small numbers of state polls. If there have been no polls over the the 10-day interval, we depart the typical clean. On 11 Oct Guardian US started rounding averages to the closest entire quantity to higher replicate the shortage of certainty within the polling figures.
Polling averages seize how the race stands at a specific second in time and are prone to change because the election will get nearer. Averages from states with small numbers of polls are additionally extra vulnerable to errors and biases. Our averages are an estimate of the help that the candidates have in key swing states and on the nationwide stage. The election is set by the electoral school, so these averages shouldn’t be taken as a probability of profitable the election in November.
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