Europe’s longest-serving authoritarian chief, Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko, is about to run for a seventh time period on Jan. 26, 2025. And even earlier than the primary vote is counted, it may be said with a good diploma of confidence that he’ll prevail.
With no real opposition and a historical past of vote rigging, Lukashenko – in energy since 1994 – has additional slanted issues in his favor this time round by banning abroad voting, eradicating the minimal turnout threshold and awarding himself lifelong immunity and a everlasting seat in parliament.
However whereas the 2025 election is unlikely to carry change, it’s, nonetheless, consequential.
Belarus beneath Lukashenko has turn out to be embroiled within the battle between NATO-backed Western Europe and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. In the meantime, Belarus’ file on human rights – and its complicity in Russia’s struggle in Ukraine – have led to intensive sanctions and diplomatic isolation of the Japanese European nation, worsening the lifetime of its folks.
As a scholar on Japanese Europe, I consider the continued rule of Lukashenko, emboldened by a seventh consecutive “victory,” may have grave implications for regional and world politics, in addition to the trajectory of the nation itself.
Aiding the Russian struggle machine
Below Lukashenko, Belarus has served as a staging floor for Russian navy operations, together with its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
And the nation stays a essential provider of military-purpose merchandise to Russia, offering applied sciences equivalent to optical gadgets, together with sights and thermal imaging for autos, artillery ammunition and radio-electronic tools and software program.
This has helped Russia ramp up its navy {hardware} all through the Ukraine struggle, enabling the manufacturing and enhancement of key techniques, together with tanks, missiles and air protection platforms.
Such actions have resulted in blowback for Lukashenko and Belarus. In August 2024, the U.S. Treasury’s Workplace of Overseas Property Management slapped sanctions on Belarusian entities supporting Russia’s navy efforts.
Nonetheless, Russian loans and low-cost vitality have allowed Belarus to keep away from the complete affect of those sanctions. And this in flip has solely entrenched the Belarus-Russia relationship, that means that Belarus is extra in hock to Putin than it was earlier than.
Within the months main as much as 2025’s election, Lukashenko’s authorities has signaled a better relationship to Russia militarily. In October 2024, the ministries of protection of each Belarus and Russia introduced Zapad-2025, a joint strategic train scheduled for later this yr, which can deal with each typical and nuclear elements.
Belarus is already internet hosting dozens of Russian nuclear weapons and getting ready for the deliberate deployment of Oreshnik, a Russian hypersonic ballistic missile.
In keeping with Putin, Oreshnik missiles could possibly be deployed to Belarus within the second half of 2025. They are going to stay beneath Russian management, however Moscow will enable Minsk to pick the targets.
Weaponizing the NATO border
Being pulled more and more into the orbit of Moscow is all of the extra vital given Belarus’ geographical location – bordering NATO and European Union international locations Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, in addition to sharing a border with NATO-aspiring Ukraine.
Lukashenko has beforehand weaponized the border by orchestrating hybrid threats, together with the cynical use of Center Japanese migrants. In 2021 and later, his regime facilitated the motion of hundreds of migrants from Iraq, Syria and different international locations by way of Belarus, directing them towards EU international locations – creating humanitarian crises and straining these international locations’ border safety techniques within the course of.
In June 2022, Poland responded by constructing a metal border wall to maintain migrants out.
Along with leveraging the migrant subject, Lukashenko has deepened navy cooperation with non-Western allies past Russia, together with China. In July 2024, Belarus hosted Chinese language navy personnel for joint workout routines, specializing in operations close to NATO borders.
These actions showcase Lukashenko’s intent to align Belarus with authoritarian anti-Western powers, whereas rising the navy strain on NATO international locations.
Continued crackdown throughout the nation
For Belarusian residents, one other Lukashenko time period means continued restrictions on their freedom.
His authorities has criminalized elementary rights, equivalent to peaceable meeting and freedom of expression, whereas silencing dissent and stifling civil society. Even talking the Belarusian language has been handled as an act of dissent, with people dealing with detention or harassment for utilizing it publicly versus Russian, which has turn out to be the dominant language within the nation beneath Lukashenko – a lot to Putin’s approval.
In 2020, Freedom Home’s World Freedom Rating for Belarus stood at 19/100, already reflecting its authoritarian governance. By 2024, nonetheless, the rating had plummeted to eight/100, cementing Belarus’s place as probably the most oppressive nations globally.
Over 1,200 political prisoners stay incarcerated as of 2024, together with outstanding opposition leaders equivalent to Pavel Seviarynets, Mikalai Statkevich, and Nobel Laureate Ales Bialiatski.
Unbiased media has been shut down, with anti-Lukashenko journalists dealing with arrest and harassment. The media crackdown has led to a near-total dismantling of press freedom in Belarus, which was ranked 167th out of 180 international locations in Reporters With out Borders’ 2024 World Press Freedom Index.
Plenty of this occurred throughout and since a crackdown prompted by mass protests over Belarus’ final presidential election in 2020. In response to these demonstrations, some 30,000 folks had been arrested, a lot of whom reported torture and mistreatment whereas in custody. In 2020, Belarus’ “civil liberties rating,” as marked by Freedom Home, was 14/60. However this fell sharply to six/60 by 2024, indicating the near-total erosion of freedoms equivalent to meeting, affiliation and expression.
Such actions have cemented Belarus’ transformation right into a pariah state, remoted from Western democracies and closely reliant on Russia for political and financial survival.
For the folks of Belarus, one other time period beneath Lukashenko would see the continuation of his suppression of freedoms and the rising reliance on Russia for each political and monetary stability.
Nonetheless, Lukashenko’s loyalty to the Kremlin ensures that Belarus will stay a essential participant in Russia’s broader geopolitical confrontation with NATO and the West.
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