The fall of the Assad regime in Syria marks the top of Iran’s long-feared “Shia crescent” and the rise of Turkey’s “full moon”, reshaping the geopolitical panorama from the Horn of Africa to the Levant and Afghanistan. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s backing of the Syrian rebels has elevated Ankara to the standing of a regional powerhouse, one whose affect now encircles all the most important gamers within the area.
Turkey performed a pivotal position within the rebels’ stunning triumph. The operation unfolded with a rare lack of the sort of violent destruction that has characterised Syrian campaigns over the previous 13 years. Turkey supplied intelligence, steerage and political cowl.
Within the early years of the Syrian battle, dozens of countries provided sporadic help to opposition teams, however Turkey’s dedication to the rebels within the north-western enclave close to its border was constant. By ceasefires and frozen frontlines brokered since 2019, Turkey ensured that the rebels had the steadiness to rearm and reorganise.
With Iran stretched skinny and unable to offer assets and manpower as a result of Israeli strikes in opposition to Hezbollah and Iranian networks in Lebanon and Syria, the collapse of Assad’s regime grew to become not solely attainable however inevitable. In the meantime, Russia, preoccupied with its battle in Ukraine, provided solely restricted help to Assad.
The consequences of Turkey’s success will seemingly be felt in neighbouring Iraq. Turkey has lengthy maintained a presence within the northern areas and has collaborated with Iraqi Kurds and focused the Kurdistan Employees’ occasion (PKK). The rise of a Sunni-led authorities in Syria strengthens Turkey’s hand in Sunni-majority areas of Iraq which have been dominated by Iranian-backed Shia militias for the reason that fall of Islamic State in 2019. This gradual erosion of Iran’s affect in Iraq is more likely to mirror the adjustments taking form in Syria.
Turkey’s ambitions lengthen far past Syria and Iraq, reaching throughout Africa, the Caucasus and central Asia. 4 days after the insurgent victory in Syria, Erdoğan efficiently mediated a deal between Somalia and Ethiopia, two shut Turkish allies, to de-escalate tensions over territorial disputes. Turkey’s deep involvement in Libya, together with navy help for the UN-recognised authorities, additionally secures its affect over the Mediterranean’s power dynamics and positions it as a key energy dealer in north Africa.
Ankara’s position in Afghanistan has additionally grown in recent times, the place it has cultivated ties with the Taliban since its return to energy in 2021, east of Iran’s borders. Moreover, Turkey solidified its presence in Azerbaijan close to Iran’s northern border by backing Baku militarily and diplomatically in the course of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh battle in opposition to Armenia, positioning itself as a key participant within the Caucasus.
Turkey’s rise complicates regional energy dynamics, significantly for Saudi Arabia and its allies. Not like Iran, whose sectarian Shia identification made it a transparent rival, Turkey’s Sunni credentials create a extra refined and pervasive problem. Riyadh has lengthy positioned itself because the chief of the Sunni Muslim world, countering Iran’s Shia affect, however Turkey’s ascendancy disrupts this narrative. Ankara’s Islamist-leaning insurance policies resonate with a broad swath of Sunni Muslims and political Islamists, providing an alternative choice to the Gulf monarchies.
Additionally in contrast to Iran, which relied on proxies akin to Hezbollah to keep up its affect, Turkey has achieved legitimacy via its direct backing of native Sunni forces and widespread causes such because the Arab uprisings of 2011. This positions Turkey as a extra pan-Sunni energy, undermining Saudi Arabia’s declare to regional management. For Riyadh and the UAE, this new dynamic is harking back to the 2012 rise of a Turkish-backed Islamist authorities in Egypt beneath Mohamed Morsi, which prompted Gulf states to help the navy coup that ousted it.
For greater than 20 years, Iran’s Shia crescent symbolised its ambition to dominate the Center East. Stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean, this hall allowed Iran to venture energy via proxies akin to Hezbollah and threaten adversaries akin to Israel and Saudi Arabia. By 2019, it appeared Iran had solidified its maintain over 4 Arab capitals – Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sana’a – marking the peak of its regional affect. Nonetheless, this enlargement got here at the price of strategic overextension, leaving Tehran weak to an more and more assertive or aggressive Turkey and Israel.
At present, that crescent is fracturing. The rebels’ victory in Syria, coupled with Turkey’s rising affect, has severed Iran’s land bridge to Lebanon, disrupting its provide traces and isolating its proxies. This decline is additional mirrored in Lebanon, the place Hezbollah’s dominance is beneath rising pressure from each home crises and Israel’s persistent navy stress. Iran’s loss is Turkey’s acquire, as Damascus shifts from being an Iranian ally for practically half a century to a Turkish ally.
Turkey’s rise is just not merely a response to Iran’s decline. It displays an assertive international coverage predicated on pressing financial and safety imperatives, such because the Kurdish menace in Syria and Iraq, and a essentially completely different method to regional energy. Whereas Iran’s affect relied on sectarianism and laborious energy, Turkey’s technique combines navy intervention with diplomatic outreach and financial funding. This multifaceted method permits it to function throughout sectarian and ideological traces.
Within the area, Turkey’s dominance is a supply of deep fear. For Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel, the shift in Damascus is a gamechanger that might pit them in opposition to a regional rival. For western policymakers, views of Ankara’s rising assertiveness vary from considerations over its Islamist ties to recognition of its centrality to Center Japanese politics. This performs into Ankara’s palms, as it’s a marked distinction to Iran’s energy projection that was unanimously challenged within the west and the area.
Within the years to return, the area’s energy struggles will now not revolve across the shadow of Iran’s ambitions however across the scope of Turkey’s. For rivals and allies alike, the query will now not be whether or not Turkey will dominate the area, however how.
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