The NFL’s bogus playoff seeding system penalizes the extra deserving

The injustice of the NFL’s playoff seeding system rears its ugly head as soon as once more.

Now that we all know how the 2024 NFL playoffs are seeded from high to backside, it’s time as soon as once more to complain concerning the league’s ugly secret: its system for awarding playoff place, and thus which groups can have postseason video games at house or on the street, is significantly flawed.

The first wrongdoer is the league’s insistence that each division winner will get at the least one house sport. That may be considerably equitable if each division winner was above common, however the strategy of elimination tells us a unique story. Since 2010 alone, there have been three division winners with dropping data: The 2010 Seattle Seahawks (NFC West, 7-9), the 2014 Carolina Panthers (NFC South, 7-8-1), and the 2020 Washington Soccer Crew (NFC East, 7-9). All three of these groups acquired house playoff video games in opposition to superior opponents from a document respective – all within the wild-card spherical. The Seahawks beat the 11-5 New Orleans Saints 41-36, the Panthers beat the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals, and the Soccer Crew misplaced to the 11-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This season, the foremost points are within the NFC as soon as once more. The 12-5 six-seed Washington Commanders will journey to play the 10-7 three-seed Buccaneers, as a result of the Bucs gained an NFC South with a .412 successful share (28-40 total), and the Commanders completed second to the 14-3 Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC East with a .529 successful share (36-32).

Much more ridiculous is the truth that the 10-7 Los Angeles Rams, winner of an NFC West that sports activities a .500 successful share (34-34), will host the 14-3 Minnesota Vikings, who completed second within the NFC North after the ultimate sport of the common season – an NFC North with a successful share of 662 (45-23, and three groups with at the least 11 wins).

This could not stand, and the answer is straightforward. Division wins needs to be totally meaningless in terms of playoff positioning, particularly when there have been so many examples of stated division winners simply beating up on the misplaced and forlorn in their very own common space. When you win a division with a dropping document, good for you. You’re staying house, and the extra deserving groups who must eke out wins in stronger divisions take the day.

As to that Lions-Vikings sport, which ended 31-9 in Detroit’s favor, it was much more of a defensive battle than anyone anticipated, at the least for the primary three quarters. Each groups got here into this contest with high-quality defenses, although the Lions have suffered by means of a ghastly variety of accidents on that facet of the ball within the second half of the season.

Many observers thought that the winner of this sport could be the winner of the battle between Lions quarterback Jared Goff, and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ blitz packages. In Detroit’s 31-29 Week 7 win over Minnesota, Flores blitzed Goff ceaselessly, and Goff ripped these blitzes to bits. The Vikings had been a bit extra on level in opposition to Goff this time round, however the true story was the strain packages and tight protection Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn threw at Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, and the way Darnold was affected by them.

The killer for the VIkings might nicely have been two drives within the second quarter through which Darnold missed on six straight passes from contained in the Detroit 10-yard line – three straight on the drive that started with 11:01 left within the second quarter from the Detroit three yard line, and three extra from the Detroit seven-yard line with 6:55 left within the second quarter from the Detroit seven-yard line. 4 of these passes had been within the common neighborhood of Justin Jefferson, one of many NFL’s greatest receivers, and the Vikings acquired a complete of three factors out of these two drives.

That malaise continued into the second half. Darnold was extra jumpy and uncomfortable than he’s been all season lengthy, and the purple zone was his Kryptonite. Coming into this sport, Darnold was stellar from the opposing 10-yard line and in, with 30 completions on 39 makes an attempt for 147 yards, 20 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer ranking of 110.8. However on this sport, and in opposition to this protection, Darnold seemed much more just like the iffy, inconsistent quarterback who was “seeing ghosts” with the New York Jets again in 2019. The Vikings had been 0-for-4 on drives within the purple zone, 0-3 when in goal-to-go conditions, and 0-for-3 on fourth-down conversions.

Darnold has been a beautiful quarterback for many of this season below the steering of Vikings head coach and offensive play-caller Kevin O’Connell. And it’s not as if the Lions confirmed any sort of “blueprint” to cease him – most quarterbacks are going to be subpar when pressured ceaselessly with hyper-aggressive protection to deal with. However the outcomes of this sport might alter Minnesota’s reliance on Darnold because the staff’s epicenter on that facet of the ball, and possibly it ought to … at the least, till the ghosts go away once more.

MVP of the week

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions. The rationale the Lions-Vikings sport was a defensive battle solely by means of the primary three quarters was that Gibbs, Detroit’s nonpareil operating again, took over within the fourth quarter. Total, Gibbs ran 23 instances for 139 yards and three touchdowns, including 5 catches on 5 targets for 31 yards and one other rating. That raised his landing complete to twenty for the common season, which makes him the league chief.

Gibbs’ first fourth-quarter run was a 13-yard landing, His second was a 47-yard scamper, and issues simply snowballed from there. He scored the ultimate three touchdowns from both staff, turning a 10-9 nail-biter in Detroit’s favor to a laugher in the long run.

Lots of people pilloried the Lions after they chosen GIbbs with the twelfth total choose within the 2023 draft – in any case, you’re not alleged to draft operating backs that prime when “operating backs don’t matter.” However government vice chairman and common supervisor Brad Holmes responded on the time that Gibbs wasn’t only a operating again – he was an offensive weapon, and that was how he was going to be utilized.

It’s unattainable to argue that time now.

Video of the week

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had already clinched the NFC South, and the four-seed within the NFC playoffs, by dint of their 27-19 win over the New Orleans Saints. However there was yet another little bit of enterprise for the Bucs to deal with earlier than they left the sphere. With 36 seconds left within the sport, receiver Mike Evans was 5 yards in need of his eleventh straight 1,000-yard season. Had been Evans to hit that mark, he could be the one receiver in professional soccer historical past to take action in every of his first 11 seasons, and he would tie Jerry Rice for essentially the most 1,000-yard seasons in a profession.

So when the Bucs acquired the ball again after an unsuccessful fourth-down try by the Saints, Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield was not going to kneel in a victory formation; he was going to get his man his document. Which he did, on this fast go for 9 yards.

If you wish to understand how a lot that mark meant to Evans and the remainder of the group, take a look at the team-wide post-catch celebration, which went on roughly so long as your common John Bonham drum solo.

Evans is a no-doubt future Corridor of Famer, however his ascent to 1,000 yards was no slam-dunk this time round: he missed three weeks in the midst of the season with a hamstring harm, and gutted it out because the season progressed with hamstring and calf maladies.

Evans additionally acquired himself a $3m bonus for cracking 1,000 yards on the season, however there are occasions when the that means of a factor issues greater than the funds therein, and this seems to be one such occasion.

Stat of the week

1,921. That’s what number of yards Baltimore Ravens operating again Derrick Henry gained on the bottom within the 2024 common season, which is essentially the most by any again who didn’t win the dashing title. That title goes to Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles, who turned the ninth again in professional soccer historical past to run for over 2,000 yards (2,005 on 345 carries) regardless of sitting out the ultimate sport of the season in opposition to the New York Giants as a way to put together for the postseason.

Henry wasn’t going out like that. In Baltimore’s regular-season finale in opposition to the Cleveland Browns, Henry ran the ball 20 instances for 138 yards and two touchdowns.

And it’s not as if Henry is unfamiliar with excessive seasonal dashing totals. He went over the two,000-yard mark himself in 2020 with 2,027, and now, together with his 2024 complete, he’s the one again in historical past to have two seasons with greater than 1,900 yards on the bottom.

It might be some time earlier than the NFL has one other operating again who’s a relative certainty to make the Professional Soccer Corridor of Fame, so we must always get pleasure from Henry’s outstanding profession so long as it goes. He’s been the league’s stalwart on the place as the significance of operating backs on the whole has waxed and waned.

Elsewhere across the league

Quarterback Jayden Daniels of the Commanders has turned the fortunes of his staff round utterly (seeding unfairness however), and he needs to be the default Offensive Rookie of the 12 months. However let’s not ignore one other rookie quarterback who has outlined himself as a franchise man. Bo Nix, the previous Oregon star who was chosen by the Denver Broncos with the twelfth total choose within the 2024 draft, completed off his first NFL common season with a masterful efficiency in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs that put the 10-7 Broncos within the postseason for the primary time for the reason that 2015 season, after they gained Tremendous Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning as their quarterback. The post-Manning panorama had been a horror present for the Broncos, concluding with the Russell Wilson commerce that was one of many worst offers in latest historical past.

Nix was a unique cat from the beginning. He performed for various offensive coordinators in each one in all his 5 seasons at Auburn and Oregon, and he had the psychological wherewithal to deal with head coach Sean Payton’s playbook, one of many NFL’s most voluminous and sophisticated. Sure, the Chiefs had been resting a number of their starters as a result of they’d nothing to play for because the AFC”s one-seed, however Nix nonetheless needed to get it completed, and he did. The rookie accomplished 26 of 29 passes for 321 yards, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer ranking of 152.4.

Nix has confirmed to have the smarts, accuracy, velocity, and mobility to achieve the NFL. Now, he will get to see how that may look within the postseason.

The Carolina Panthers completed the 2024 season with a 5-12 document. Hardly what anyone within the constructing would have most popular, however it represents a significant step ahead in a technique. Bryce Younger, the primary total choose within the 2023 draft, now appears to be like like a totally completely different quarterback than he did in his rookie marketing campaign, or by means of the primary few weeks of the 2024 season. Younger was benched in favor of veteran Andy Dalton in Week 3 this 12 months, and he didn’t return to motion as a starter till Week 8. Since that return, nonetheless, Younger has been a revelation in each method – much more comfy and assured out and in of the pocket, throwing the ball to all ranges of the sphere, and whether or not he’s pressured or not.

That course of amplified itself in Carolina’s 44-38 extra time win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Younger accomplished 25 of 34 passes for 251 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer ranking of 123.5. Add in Younger’s 5 dashing makes an attempt for twenty-four yards and two touchdowns, and this was a real franchise quarterback efficiency from a man who seemed like an epic bust not so way back.

The Panthers have a approach to go together with their roster growth earlier than they’re true contenders, however they seem to have the premier place taken care of, and as Panthers head coach Dave Canales stated post-game, that eases a number of the load on a personnel employees.

One other staff with a number of roster holes to fill – however not on the quarterback place – is the New England Patriots. And now, the Pats have to seek out themselves a brand new head coach, as a result of they fired Jerod Mayo after their 23-16 win over the Buffalo Payments’ backups – a win that finalized New England’s 4-13 document in Mayo’s first season as Invoice Belichick’s alternative.

Third total choose Drake Maye had little or no assist from his receivers, his run sport, or his offensive line, however he nonetheless managed to finish 225 of 337 passes for two,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a passer ranking of 88.3. Maye didn’t play within the season finale, however sixth-round rookie Joe Milton did, and Milton accomplished 22 of 29 passes for 241 yards, a landing, no interceptions, and a passer ranking of 111.4.

Each Maye and Milton are athletic marvels with large arm power and every kind of mobility, so New England’s head coach can have one thing to construct round.

There are occasions when one wonders why groups which have completely nothing to play for on the finish of the season don’t empty out the weirdest components of their playbooks simply to see what sorts of misdirection and trickeration may work. The final failure fee of such exploits might be the first purpose. Coaches are usually a conservative lot for essentially the most half, and no one likes to be embarrassed. That stated, a lot of groups already eradicated from the postseason did their degree greatest to maintain us entertained, with the same old middling outcomes.

The primary misdirection try got here from the Chicago Bears of their 24-22 win over the Inexperienced Bay Packers, and it was a doozy in a great way. With 6:34 left within the first quarter, Chicago cornerback Josh Blackwell took a Daniel Whelan punt at his personal six-yard line, and returned it 94 yards for a landing.

The attention-grabbing wrinkle right here is that receiver DJ Moore was additionally in place to return the punt on the opposite facet of the sphere, faked the return, fooled the Packers’ return staff, and that set issues up for the landing.

This was harking back to a play the Bears ran on 25 September 2011, additionally in opposition to the Packers. On this occasion, Corridor of Fame return man Devin Hester was the decoy, and that allowed receiver Johnny Knox to return Tim Masthay’s punt 89 yards for a landing … which was negated by a holding penalty on defensive again Corey Graham.

That was an impressive instance of trickeration, although the Bears acquired a bit grasping with the idea with 11:13 left within the third quarter. Quarterback Caleb Williams pitched the ball to receiver Keenan Allen, who then threw the ball proper to Packers security Xavier McKinney, who had his eighth interception of the season.

The Carolina Panthers additionally acquired difficult of their 44-38 extra time win over the Atlanta Falcons. With 9:10 left within the first quarter, quarterback Bryce Younger flipped the ball to receiver Jalen Coker, who hit operating again Miles Sanders for a 19-yard achieve.

And it needs to be canon that the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets ought to by no means strive a trick play. Not after they can’t even get their pre-game staff flag presentation proper. This catastrophe occurred with 11:03 left within the first quarter, and the back-and-forth with receiver Davante Adams, delivered to New York as a result of he’s one in all Rodgers’ greatest buddies, went nowhere.

There was additionally this misbegotten Wildcat try midway by means of the third quarter, as if to show the purpose.

Additionally within the afternoon slate, with 2:33 left within the first quarter of the sport between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers, Arizona operating again DeeJay Dallas took a direct snap on what a punt, and rumbled for a 22-yard achieve. The 49ers’ misbegotten particular groups, which ranked thirty first in DVOA (opponent-adjusted effectivity) coming into this sport, had no reply.

So, in a common sense, there was extra skullduggery than one would count on in a traditional week the place all people had one thing to play for. Which is appropriately.