The finest roster within the NFL versus the league’s finest quarterback. Two defensive wizards. Two offenses that maintain on to the ball for a protracted, loooooong time, prioritizing effectivity and ball safety above all else. This 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl will in all probability be a decent, low-scoring affair. Let’s take a look at the important thing questions that may decide the result of the massive recreation.
Can the Chiefs decelerate Barkley?
Barkley has put collectively one of many biggest seasons in NFL historical past. He wants 30 yards to interrupt Terrell Davis’ all-time mixed speeding report for the common season and playoffs. Thus far, nobody has discovered a method to gradual him down. Behind a bulldozing Philadelphia Eagles offensive line, Barkley can churn out 4 yards per carry or flip a sliver of daylight right into a home name in a blink.
To restrict Barkley’s influence, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs might want to drive destructive performs on first down. However determining how is difficult. The everyday reply to slowing an important again is to crowd the road of scrimmage with as many our bodies as doable. And the Chiefs do run 5 deep, with run-stuffing linemen who can cycle out and in of the sport to attempt to management the road of scrimmage. However Barkley is a one-of-one expertise. One way or the other, he has been extra efficient this season towards a crowded line than towards defenses which have conceded some mass up entrance to guard towards his home-run potential.
Barkley’s greatness comes from his stop-start quickness and imaginative and prescient – aided by a big, cellular offensive line paving an open path. By including measurement alongside the road, defenses hope to show the run recreation right into a sequence of one-on-one battles or drive the opposing offense to examine from a run play to a go play. However Barkley warps the normal logic. He prefers when there are extra our bodies up entrance; if he could make one defender miss, there are fewer defenders accessible additional down the sphere to cease him streaking into the endzone. Barkley has pressured 77 missed tackles this season and is already as much as 54 runs of 10 yards or extra. Forty-one of these explosive runs have come towards defensive seems with seven or extra defenders across the line of scrimmage, an NFL report.
That places Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo in a bind. The whole lot is a trade-off. Does he stack the field and hope Barkley has an off evening or that the Eagles shift away from the operating recreation fully? Or, does he again up and lighten the field, permitting Barkley to churn out simpler yards however hopefully limiting the again’s game-changing runs?
Will the Eagles blitz Mahomes?
Vic Fangio’s protection has been essentially the most constant unit within the league this season. They stonewall the run. They restrict explosive performs. They bludgeon fast screens, a core element of the Chiefs offense. They drive turnovers at a sky-high charge. In Jalen Carter, they’ve a one-man inferno alongside the line of defense.
Underpinning that’s Fangio’s philosophy: drive an offense to drive the sphere in 15 to 18 performs. It’s not fairly a passive bend-don’t-break system, nevertheless it’s not far off. Fangio performs with a four-down-and-go entrance, disguises his protection on the again finish, drops everybody out to house, has his gamers rally to the ball after which hit like a freight prepare. He has made delicate changes this 12 months, however the foundations are the identical as ever.
Fangio’s idea is that forcing an offense to drive the size of the sphere again and again is mentally taxing. Ultimately, he hopes, the opposing quarterback will make a mistake.
The logic is sound. The Eagles have pressured 26 takeaways this season. And with their offense dominating the time of possession on account of their overwhelming run recreation, opposing quarterbacks have gotten antsy towards Fangio’s group. The clock ticks down, the quarterback understands he might solely have a handful of possessions, he hunts chunk performs after which, BOOM, right here comes a protection they weren’t anticipating or a pass-rusher crashing into their face.
Mahomes, nevertheless, is constructed in another way. He can play in construction or weaponize chaos. He doesn’t take sacks. He hardly ever turns the ball over – and he’s eliminating the ball on the quickest charge of his profession. With Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, Noah Grey, DeAndre Hopkins and a rotation of three operating backs, the Chiefs have a bevy of weapons to assault in any means they please. Andy Reid’s idiosyncratic scheming has allowed them to obliterate opponents on third downs to maintain the chains shifting. If the scheme breaks down, Mahomes can create a play all on his personal. It’s onerous to imagine, even towards an Eagles protection this gifted, that Mahomes will gag the sport away.
Fangio has an terrible report towards Mahomes and Reid. In seven conferences as a defensive playcaller, Fangio is 0-7 towards the pair. His finest effort got here in Week 9 final season because the Dolphins defensive coordinator. In that assembly, Fangio flipped his method. Fairly than have his protection again up, Fangio blitzed Mahomes on the highest charge he has blitzed any quarterback within the final two seasons. And never any outdated blitzes, however all-out, oh-no, what-is-he-thinking blitzes. It labored! Fangio held Mahomes to 185 passing yards and the Chiefs failed to attain within the second half of a 21-14 win, with Fangio cranking up his blitz charge after half-time.
Blitzing Mahomes is dangerous although. Ever since he stepped on the sphere as a professional, Mahomes has roasted stress. Now, he’s additionally the league chief in breaking down quirky zone coverages, the sort the Eagles main in.
How a lot will final 12 months’s gameplan stick in Fangio’s thoughts? Does he wish to blitz the unblitzable? Does he wish to dare Mahomes to make a mistake? Overhauling his defensive method for one recreation can be a raffle. Fangio has constructed the perfect unit within the league by sticking to the rules he has coached with for 40 years. However Mahomes and Reid have confirmed they’ll crack his standard work. The Chiefs offense is all the time stuffed with surprises. It could be time for Fangio to spring one in every of his personal.
How wholesome is the Eagles offensive line?
The Eagles will enter Sunday with harm issues up entrance. Left guard Landon Dickerson harm his knee within the NFC championship recreation and heart Cam Jurgens is coping with a lingering again harm. Dickerson’s backup, Tyler Steen, struggled within the NFC championship recreation. And if Jurgens, who is anticipated to begin, is pressured to go away the sport, then the Eagles must transfer gamers round to fill the void.
Dickerson and Jurgens are key to Philly’s run recreation: Dickerson is a mauler, whereas Jurgens choreographs the staff’s blocking mechanics. If both is restricted or misses time, it is going to be a blow to the muse of Philly’s offense. Extra importantly, the 2 will likely be essential in selecting up the Chiefs’ wonky blitz packages. Spagnuolo has the broadest blitz menu within the league. He sends warmth from uncommon angles, in uncommon conditions. Nobody has a greater learn on how an offensive line is making an attempt to guard their quarterback and one of the best ways to interrupt that safety down.
Communication is essential to averting Spagnuolo’s nonsense. If there was a weak space for the Eagles’ much-ballyhooed offensive line, it’s been selecting up completely different stress package deal. They’re an enormous, front-foot group, that may battle with the nuances of passing off completely different pass-rushers and finding out any chaos within the passing recreation. With no settled inside, the Eagles will likely be in bother on third downs.
Then there’s the Chris Jones issue. KC strikes Jones all throughout their entrance, utilizing the remainder of their defensive alignment to scheme up one-on-one mismatches for his or her star pass-rusher. If both Dickerson or Jurgens are lacking, Jones can feast towards their backups.
Can Jake Elliott match Harrison Butker?
Let’s speak kickers! In a decent matchup, area targets will matter. An extended bomb or two may tip the scales in a staff’s favor, and taking part in in a dome makes for a good kicking atmosphere.
The Chiefs have a transparent benefit. Butker is the all-time chief in playoff area purpose accuracy. He’s hit six of seven kicks from 50 yards or extra in his playoff profession, although he hasn’t been as correct from distance this season. However Butker is a confirmed underneath stress, kicking game-sealing area targets in all three of the Chiefs’ Tremendous Bowl runs.
Elliott has been up and down. He’s a profession 60% kicker from 50 or extra yards however has hit solely one in every of his seven long-range makes an attempt this season. The Eagles have the perfect short-yardage offense within the league, but when a drive stalls out, Elliott must match Butker make-for-make.
How will officers name the sport?
The zaniest conspiracy idea within the NFL is that the league’s officers – and by extension the league workplace – are colluding to assist the Chiefs, even when the numbers don’t help that idea. The Collusion Believers haven’t but consolidated round a single idea, which run the gamut from a dynasty being good for enterprise, Mahomes being the league’s most marketable star and the very fact Taylor Swift is courting Travis Kelce. Possibly it’s all three. The proof? Dangerous spots. Low-cost roughing the passer calls. Uncalled false begins. You identify it, and there’s no doubt a viral social media clip of a name going within the favor of Mahomes and the Chiefs.
The narrative has taken such a pervasive maintain that commissioner Roger Goodell addressed it this week, calling it a “ridiculous idea.” The NFL Referees Affiliation issued an announcement including, “Officiating crews don’t work the identical staff greater than twice every common season. It’s insulting and preposterous to listen to conspiracy theories that in some way 17 officiating crews consisting of 138 officers are colluding to help one staff.”
The thought is preposterous. Have the Chiefs been on the lucky aspect of some egregious calls? You guess. Are a few of the playoff numbers a bit of fishy? Type of, form of. Typically, it feels just like the Chiefs get extra calls. However that’s in all probability as a result of they play in additional nationally televised video games than every other franchise. When there is a nasty name, they take benefit, as a result of they’re the perfect staff of their technology. Their figures are juiced as a result of they’ve performed in additional postseason video games than anybody within the league over the previous three years. They’ve additionally had extra teaching continuity than any dynastic staff in league historical past – and well-coached groups don’t cough up penalties.
And but … the concept the refs are working to assist the Chiefs is on the market. Officers are human. Will the narrative play on their minds on Sunday? If there’s a 50-50 name, will they holster their flags understanding there’s a highlight on their efficiency? Possibly, fingers crossed, they may swallow their whistles for the total recreation, trying to head off any controversy.
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