Freshman GOP Rep. Mike Lawler holds a slender benefit over former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones within the decrease Hudson Valley’s battleground seventeenth District, in accordance with a survey of doubtless voters performed by Jones’ marketing campaign.
In a three-way poll take a look at, Lawler leads Jones, 46%-43%, with Working Households Social gathering candidate Anthony Frascone at 5% and the rest undecided.
In a head-to-head race, Lawler leads Jones by simply two factors, 47%-45%, with one other 7% undecided.
Jones pollster GBAO stated the previous congressman had minimize into Lawler’s lead from early August, when a previous survey confirmed the Republican incumbent led Jones by 7 factors — 47%-40% — with Frascone at 6% and the remainder undecided.
Over the previous few weeks, Jones and Democrats have blanketed the airwaves with advertisements slamming Lawler over abortion, which they hope will flip voters in opposition to the congressman.
The GBAO survey, first reported by Politico, has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 proportion factors, which makes the race a toss-up, in accordance with Jones’ pollster.
The polling memo additionally trumpeted that Lawler’s reputation had dropped by 5 proportion factors in current weeks, however nonetheless had him above water with 44% of voters viewing him favorably and 39% viewing him unfavorably — whereas leaving Jones’ Q ranking unspoken.
“Lawler’s file, now beneath scrutiny, has moved the race to inside the margin of error, however Democrats might want to proceed the heavy funding we’ve seen during the last two weeks to maintain the momentum going and put Jones within the lead,” the memo stated.
Lawler’s marketing campaign scoffed on the claims.
“Regardless of a large spending benefit because of far-left particular pursuits – and in a district the place Democrats outnumber Republicans by 80,000 voters – Mondaire nonetheless can’t cook dinner a ballot that reveals him forward,” stated marketing campaign spokesman Chris Russell.
“The truth that he omitted his picture rankings tells you ways unpopular he’s and the way a lot voters find out about his radical and excessive file – and that’s earlier than we start our greatest advert spend,” Russell added. “Make no mistake, this can be a horrible outcome for the DCCC [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee] and demonstrates what an terrible candidate Mondaire Jones is and the way sturdy of a place Mike Lawler is in heading in the direction of Election Day.”
The seventeenth district takes within the decrease Hudson Valley and consists of Rockland County, elements of Westchester and Putnam County.
Jones is searching for a comeback to Congress after two years within the political wilderness.
Following redistricting in 2022, Jones determined to relocate and ran for the Home seat within the tenth District, masking decrease Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn. He misplaced within the Democratic major to now-Rep. Dan Goldman.
Jones shifted again to the seventeenth District this yr to tackle Lawler, who defeated ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, then chair of the Home Democrats’ marketing campaign arm.
The ballot surveyed 500 doubtless basic election voters within the seventeenth District Aug. 8-12 and Sept. 15-18.
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