The UK is now approaching its third Christmas of the COVID pandemic. And this 12 months feels totally different. There’s little query we’re in a greater place in contrast with 2020 and 2021.
In 2020, Christmas plans have been considerably curtailed, with a spread of restrictions in place throughout the UK. However winter social mixing that occurred earlier than a full nationwide lockdown was applied in early January 2021 prompted the variety of deaths to rise rapidly, reaching ranges much like these within the first wave.
On the similar time a brand new variant, alpha, was beginning to unfold. On a brighter notice, the primary vaccine doses have been starting to be administered, providing hope for suppressing the pandemic.
One 12 months later, in December 2021, predictions have been extra optimistic, with 70% of the UK inhabitants having obtained two vaccine doses. However the unfold of the omicron variant threatened festive plans.
An enormous wave of instances adopted and quashed any notion that herd immunity could also be achievable with this virus. However vaccinations have been profitable in maintaining numbers of deaths comparatively low.
COVID instances and deaths in England in 2020, 2021 and 2022 winter seasons
Adam Kleczkowski and UKHSA, Writer supplied
Adam Kleczkowski and UKHSA, Writer supplied
As we strategy our third COVID Christmas, there’s speak that we’re now “post-pandemic”. However the virus remains to be very a lot with us.
So, how does the COVID outlook for this winter differ from the earlier two? Let’s have a look at some key components which can decide how issues may play out.
Immunity
Once we’re contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), or after we are vaccinated, the immune system is primed to guard in opposition to future infections.
The relative ranges and length of immunity in opposition to SARS-CoV-2, both attained by means of an infection (“pure”), vaccination (“synthetic”), or each (“hybrid”), usually are not fully clear. However 66% of the world’s inhabitants is estimated to have some type of immunity in opposition to SARS-CoV-2. This immunity is extra seemingly to offer safety in opposition to extreme sickness and dying, however affords some safety in opposition to an infection.
In nations comparable to the UK and the US, greater than 95% of individuals at the moment have immunity (measured by way of antibodies), up from 5% in December 2020. There’s little doubt that the virus now has a decrease likelihood of inflicting severe injury in contrast with two years in the past.
Learn extra:
COVID remedies and prevention are nonetheless enhancing – so the longer you may keep away from it the higher
On the similar time, the expertise of the winter 2021-2022 wave exhibits that vaccination alone is unlikely to eradicate the virus. In distinction to smallpox, rinderpest, and even measles, we would have to study to stay with it.
A gradual inflow of youngsters born with out publicity to COVID and waning immunity amongst adults is prone to gas future waves.
A altering virus
In 2020 there was hypothesis that in distinction to different coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 wouldn’t mutate quick sufficient to trigger issues after vaccination. This has proved incorrect, and the rise of variants comparable to alpha, delta and, most just lately, the subvariants of omicron, have proven their potential to escape immunity from vaccination and prior an infection.
COVID variants (England)
Adam Kleczkowski and UKHSA, Writer supplied
Since mid-2022, the virus has been spreading not as a single dominant variant however extra as a combination of descendants. When transmission is excessive in winter, a brand new harmful variant may emerge and trigger a big wave like a 12 months in the past. However in the intervening time there’s no clear signal that this could be occurring.
Transmission
To unfold, SARS-CoV-2 should move from an contaminated individual to a inclined one, travelling in tiny particles by means of the air. Like different respiratory illnesses, COVID spreads extra when individuals combine indoors, like in faculties, places of work, or at Christmas events. Lockdowns, self-isolation and masks have been remarkably profitable in slowing down the epidemic.
However the financial and social results of lockdowns have been controversial. Because the vaccines at the moment shield the vast majority of individuals from extreme sickness and dying, there’s little will for reintroducing the restrictions. However, the return to pre-pandemic contact ranges is prone to hold COVID circulating for longer.
Air flow, masks, and strengthening our immune programs are at the moment one of the best methods to counterbalance the impact of the rise in social contacts on COVID transmission.
Learn extra:
COVID, flu, RSV – how this triple menace of respiratory viruses might collide this winter
New 12 months, new wave?
Predictions of a giant COVID wave as we head into winter have thus far not materialised. The more than likely state of affairs is that the small-scale outbreaks will proceed all through winter as COVID turns into “endemic”. We’d already be seeing the start of a brand new wave with COVID infections and hospitalisations rising in England for the reason that starting of December.
Weekly COVID instances and hospitalisations in England
Adam Kleczkowski and UKHSA, Writer supplied
China is at the moment the greatest unknown because the nation strikes away from its zero-COVID coverage. It stays to be seen to what extent massive wave of infections there may spill over to the remainder of the world.
The impression of a number of infections may very well be the largest downside the UK and comparable nations face sooner or later. We now know every reinfection provides a danger of growing severe well being issues and lengthy COVID.
We could nicely be capable of get pleasure from extra freedoms this Christmas than we might the previous two years. However particular person individuals and societies shall be feeling the results of the COVID pandemic for a lot of months, if not years, to return.