Cincinnati Bengals
A gradual begin is acquainted territory for Cincinnati. In six seasons below Zac Taylor, the Bengals have began 0-2 5 occasions. However dropping their opening three video games is new floor, and the percentages at the moment are stacked towards them. Solely 4 out of 162 groups which have began a season 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990. The expanded format helps tilt the percentages barely in Cincy’s favor, however not by a lot.
When you take the constructive view, the Bengals have seemed flawed in all three video games this season however have been nonetheless solely a handful of performs away from going 3-0. The adverse view is that after once more they’ve struggled to evolve their offense, and for the primary time since Joe Burrow got here to city the protection has bottomed out.
Via three weeks, the Bengals have the Thirtieth-ranked protection within the NFL by EPA per play, a measure of down-to-down effectiveness. And whereas that alone is sufficient to make a group twitchy, much more disconcerting are the under-the-hood figures. Cincy’s had a pass-rush win fee of simply 9.8% towards Washington on Monday evening. That’s not how typically pass-rushers got here near touching Jayden Daniels, it’s how typically defenders beat particular person blockers. In 10 years of recorded knowledge, it’s the worst pass-rush efficiency on document.
Burrow and the offense present hope. After a dud towards the Patriots in week one, the offense has been high quality – Burrow has thrown 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. If that may maintain, then the Bengals ought to have the ability to sneak again into the wildcard race. They’ve a positive schedule over the subsequent 4 weeks with video games towards the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Ravens, which may see them nudge nearer to .500. However until they’re capable of finding some juice alongside the defensive position they’ll be out of the playoff image earlier than Thanksgiving.
Panic degree: 10/10
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is off to a gradual begin. And there are many theories why. Is he podcasting an excessive amount of? Worrying about his movie profession? Spending an excessive amount of time with Tay? The most probably rationalization is straightforward: he’s a 34-year-old tight finish.
Taking part in tight finish is brutal and bruising. When the decline comes, it’s quick. And there have been warning indicators final yr that the top is nearing. In 2023, he began slowly, caught hearth halfway via the calendar after which took one other dip towards the top of the common season. Bar a few big video games towards the Payments and Raiders, Kelce had a troublesome go of it throughout the Chiefs’ ultimate 9 regular-season video games. However by the point the playoffs rolled round, he was again to his greatest.
This season may observe an identical trajectory. Though he’s ageing, Kelce remains to be able to being one of the dynamic weapons within the league. He nonetheless has an unteachable reference to Patrick Mahomes that may bail KC’s offense out of tough spots. The times of him being a assured first down could also be gone, however he stays a giant play ready to occur.
Because the Chiefs work in a brand new group of receivers and look to a youthful tight finish, Noah Grey, to ease a number of the burden on Kelce, his numbers will take a dip – apologies to the fantasy crowd. However by the point the postseason rolls round, it will likely be Kelce that Mahomes nonetheless seems to on must-have-it downs, and he nonetheless has loads of tread on his tires to be a distinction maker.
Panic degree: 3/10
Dallas Cowboys
You need to hand it to Dallas, they discover new, grotesque methods to entertain each season. If the postseason meltdowns weren’t sufficient, this season’s twist is a doozy: they’re allergic to stopping the run.
There may be nothing extra demoralizing for a group than having the ball slammed down their throat over and over. Via three weeks, the Cowboys have fielded the worst run-defense within the league – and it’s not significantly shut. They rank thirty second in EPA per play; they’ve conceded extra explosive runs than any group within the league; they’ve whiffed on extra tackles than anybody. And there could also be no extra damning determine within the opening stage of the season than Dallas’ 6.18 common depth of sort out. That’s not a typo. The Cowboys are conceding six yards earlier than a defender even says howdy to a ball provider.
Loads goes into stopping the run. However it may be boiled down to a few overriding ideas: expertise, approach and tenacity. The Cowboys are missing in all three – and in any respect three ranges of the protection in addition. Rewatch their matchups towards the Ravens or Saints and also you’ll see the defensive position being pushed backwards, linebackers flailing round, and descending safeties getting misplaced within the carnage earlier than them. It’s jarring, typically amateurish. To date, changes to the scheme and personnel haven’t eased the issue.
“We’ve acquired to be detailed,” defensive again Jourdan Lewis stated on Monday. “I imply, on the finish of the day, this about us stopping folks. That’s simply what it’s.” The main points have been missing, however the Cowboys merely lack the our bodies upfront. Former first-round decide Mazi Smith has struggled to maintain up with NFL pace at defensive sort out, and so they’ve cycled via a rotation of grizzled vets beside him whose greatest days are lengthy gone.
Of all the issues which have undercut the Cowboys’ poor begin to the season, none is as destabilizing as their lack of ability to cease the run. And discovering a midseason resolution will likely be a problem.
Panic degree: 8/10
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Jacksonville Jaguars
You recognize issues have reached five-alarm territory when a head coach is speaking about overhauling his complete offense three weeks right into a season. “There must be adjustments, whether or not it’s play design, personnel, every thing,” Doug Pederson stated after Monday evening’s 47-10 loss to the Payments.
Of their final 10 quarters, Jacksonville have scored simply 23 factors and have transformed solely 18% of their third downs. However past the outcomes is the sense that Jacksonville’s offense has zero id – no organizing precept. They play like a pupil who’s crammed for the check the evening earlier than. Every little thing seems sloppy. Nothing flows. It’s an offense devoid of concepts paired with a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who continues to overlook straightforward alternatives once they do arrive.
If we’re apportioning blame, then a lot ought to go to Jaguars administration for an underbaked roster and a training employees that has left the offense wanting unprepared. However Lawrence has his faults too. For all of his bodily expertise, he continues to make ugly, virtually inexplicable choices. On any given week, he’s as liable to ship a mind-numbing turnover as he’s the throw of the day. In some unspecified time in the future, inconsistency just isn’t some maddening behavior holding you again out of your full potential. It’s who you’re.
The way in which the schedule units up, Pederson might be out of a job by the point the Jaguars return from London in October.
Panic degree: 9/10
Caleb Williams
After clinching the title of offseason champions, the begin to the Bears’ precise season has been dispiriting. An offense anticipated to ship fireworks has sputtered. In the meantime, Chicago have been compelled to observe as Jayden Daniels units hearth to secondaries and Justin Fields guides the Steelers to a 3-0 document.
However any sense of panic needs to be muted. Caleb Williams might have arrived in Chicago with loads of hype, strolling into the most effective conditions in a very long time for a No 1 general decide at quarterback. The Bears surrounded their younger QB with a glitzy receiving corps. They invested closely of their offensive line. On the opposite aspect of the ball, they returned the majority of a protection that cracked the top-five by the top of final season. However teething issues have been to be anticipated.
The early returns have been scattershot. Williams has made poor choices. At occasions, the sport has moved too rapidly for him. His accuracy has been up and down, and he’s been anxious to interrupt away from the offense to attempt to create. However even amid the early hiccups, there are the flashes of the participant that Williams will hopefully change into. To date, his offensive line has been a sieve, pushing him to indulge his freelancing behavior. If that tightens up even barely, then Williams will have the ability to distribute the ball round extra successfully.
That early August optimism might have light and the remainder of the roster could also be additional away from playoff competition than anticipated. However because it pertains to Williams, Chicago ought to heed the phrases of a former foe.
Panic degree: 2/10
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