Intelligence failure or not, the Israeli army was unprepared to answer Hamas’ shock assault

Intelligence failure or not, the Israeli army was unprepared to answer Hamas’ shock assault

Because the Israeli military has stepped up its counteroffensive into the Gaza Strip, questions stay on how
the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas was ready to make use of bulldozers, hold gliders and motorbikes to conduct the most important assault in 50 years in opposition to probably the most highly effective army within the Center East.

On Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, round 6:30 a.m. native time, Hamas launched upward of 3,000 rockets and despatched 1,000 fighters throughout the border from Gaza into Israel.

Regardless of the scale and scope of the assault, ABC Information reported that Israeli protection officers claimed to have had no particular warning that Hamas “was getting ready a complicated assault that required coordinated land, air and sea assaults.”

Many political and army analysts have criticized Israel for its intelligence failure to anticipate the assault, however the success of Hamas’ shock assault was an operational failure as nicely.

Over the course of my army profession in particular operations, I carried out a whole lot of tactical, operational and strategic missions primarily based on intelligence. By no means as soon as did I count on intelligence to be excellent.

Actually, it not often was. I primarily based my plan on the very best intelligence out there, however I additionally considered each attainable situation that I might in an effort to be prepared for something the enemy would possibly throw at me. It appears the Israelis didn’t do this.

The bounds of intelligence

If the definition of an intelligence failure is “when one thing unhealthy occurs to you and also you didn’t find out about it,” as former U.S. Sen. Warren Rudman as soon as described it, then the Hamas shock assault on Israel was clearly an intelligence failure.

At current, nobody is aware of why the Israelis had been unable to detect the Hamas assault, and it might be many months earlier than the Israelis can reply the query.

Traditionally, Israel has been maybe the very best authorities on the earth at penetrating terrorist organizations, that are arguably probably the most troublesome to infiltrate with informants.

Israel constructed a protection plan that depends on stopping rocket assaults, border crossings and early warnings.

However intelligence can solely accomplish that a lot. The opposite key piece of protection is knowing how your enemy thinks and operates. And there the Israelis additionally appeared to battle.

Often known as the Iron Wall, the 40-mile-long safety barrier that separates Gaza from Israel was accomplished in 2021 at a price of US$1.1 billion. It features a sensor-equipped, 20-foot-tall fence, a whole lot of cameras and automatic machine gun fireplace when sensors are tripped.

However the wall was not efficient in opposition to the shock Hamas assault. Hamas was in a position to breach the barrier in a number of areas round Gaza and proceed its assaults with out a lot preliminary resistance.

Likewise, Israel constructed its Iron Dome, an air protection system, to guard its residents from rocket assaults emanating from Gaza. Accomplished in 2011, the dome price the U.S. and Israeli governments $1.5 billion to develop and keep. Earlier than the shock Hamas assault, the protection system had a success fee of between 90%-97% of putting down enemy rockets.

A member of the safety forces walks previous an Israeli police station in Sderot on Oct 8, 2023.
Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP by way of Getty Photos

The Iron Dome labored nicely when militants launched comparatively few rockets, however it was much less efficient in opposition to the Hamas assault. When Hamas launched as many as 3,000 rockets into Israel in simply 20 minutes, the system was overwhelmed and never in a position to reply. The amount “was merely an excessive amount of for Iron Dome to handle,” in accordance with an evaluation by the Trendy Struggle Institute at West Level.

Past intelligence

In my opinion, the Hamas assault was not significantly subtle, nor significantly modern. At its core, the assault was a textbook army operation involving floor, sea and air assaults launched by one group in opposition to one other.

It’s my perception that the sort of fundamental assault is one thing that the Israels might have and may have anticipated – even when not on the dimensions it was executed.
Provided that the fundamental purpose of Hamas is “destroy the State of Israel,” Israel might have developed a protection plan that was not reliant on intelligence that’s inherently unreliable.

Historical Chinese language army theorist Solar Tzu burdened the significance of “realizing the enemy.”

“If you recognize the enemy and know your self, you needn’t concern the results of 100 battles,” he wrote in “The Artwork of Struggle.”

The issue for the Israelis, and plenty of fashionable militaries, is that they’ve develop into too reliant on intelligence as an alternative of realizing the objectives of their enemy and growing a deeper understanding of how they assume and function.

That understanding could not forestall the following shock assault, however it may well assist put together the army protection.

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