The uproar over the transatlantic rift on show on the latest Munich Safety Convention will linger for a while. We are going to see extra statements from Western European politicians, editorials in British newspapers urging Europe to face as much as Washington, and appeals for strategic autonomy. But, regardless of all this sound and fury, nothing basic is more likely to change in US-EU relations.
The true challenge at hand isn’t whether or not Washington will abandon Europe. That could be a false pretext – a smokescreen crafted by EU leaders to justify continued submission to their American patrons. Europe stays on the heart of worldwide politics not due to its personal energy, however as a result of it sits on the fault line of the US-Russia confrontation. The presence of American nuclear weapons on European soil, the 1000’s of US troops stationed throughout the continent, and the continued relevance of NATO underscore one easy truth: Washington has no intention of loosening its grip on its European allies.
The habits of as we speak’s European politicians is finest captured by the outdated American people story of Brother Rabbit. Cornered by Brother Fox, the rabbit pleads, “Do something, however don’t throw me into the thorn bush!” – figuring out full properly that the thorn bush is his most secure refuge. European leaders carry out comparable theatrics, lamenting the prospect of being deserted by the US, figuring out full properly that Washington won’t ever really go away.
The European bluff: Worry as a method
From Berlin to Paris, Rome to Madrid, Western European leaders publicly decry the dangers of American disengagement. However that is grand theater. Their actual worry just isn’t Russia – it’s the chance that Washington may really hearken to their complaints and permit them to fend for themselves.
The reality is that not one of the main EU states – Germany, France, or Italy – desires to have interaction in a struggle with Russia. Their residents haven’t any urge for food for it. In contrast to in 1914 or 1939, there isn’t any mass mobilization of the general public for battle. Even Poland, regardless of its aggressive rhetoric, is aware of that its voters has no abdomen for extended army entanglement. A number of thousand mercenaries could also be despatched to Ukraine, however they won’t change the tide of struggle.
The exception to this pragmatism lies within the small, vocal anti-Russian states – the Baltic republics, the Czech Republic, and a few Scandinavian governments. But when Germany and France ever determined to pursue actual diplomacy with Moscow, the issues of those minor gamers can be irrelevant. Traditionally, the Nord Stream gasoline pipelines had been constructed regardless of worsening Russia-EU relations as a result of Berlin’s financial pursuits dictated it. The identical might occur once more, given the correct circumstances.
The true worry: A Franco-German rapprochement with Moscow
The best worry amongst Europe’s most ardent Atlanticists – particularly within the Baltic states and Kiev – just isn’t Russia. It’s the potential for Germany and France to strike a separate cope with Moscow. Such a situation would relegate them to irrelevance, a prospect that terrifies them greater than the rest.
However Western Europe’s means to chart an unbiased course is constrained by American affect. The US maintains its dominance by way of army presence, financial penetration, and intelligence operations in key European nations. Germany and Italy, each defeated in World Battle II, stay below de facto American oversight. So long as this actuality persists, Europe will stay geopolitically captive – whether or not it desires to be or not.
Donald Trump’s representatives, quite than signaling a strategic retreat, have merely mocked EU leaders for his or her dependency. And but, these identical European politicians proceed to toe the American line, repeating drained narratives concerning the Russian menace and the necessity to defend Ukraine. Why? As a result of they worry the implications of American retaliation.
America’s grip on Europe: A lesson from historical past
For almost 80 years, Western European leaders have understood that stepping out of line with Washington carries penalties. When Germany and France opposed the Iraq Battle in 2003, the backlash from the US was swift and extreme. European leaders bear in mind this properly. They know that any critical problem to American dominance is not going to go unpunished.
This sample has repeated itself lately. Whereas the EU adopted Washington’s lead on sanctions in opposition to Russia, the financial injury primarily harm European industries, not American ones. But European leaders did little to withstand these insurance policies, fearing the repercussions of defying their transatlantic overlord.
A continent with out leaders
Past worry, one other issue paralyzing Western Europe is its personal lack of political management. The European elite has been changed by profession bureaucrats with no imaginative and prescient past sustaining the established order. The brand new technology of politicians lacks the strategic foresight of their predecessors. As an alternative of statesmen like De Gaulle, Adenauer, or Mitterrand, the EU is now ruled by directors who prioritize their private post-politics profession prospects – typically inside American company or institutional constructions.
That is significantly true in smaller states like Finland or the Baltic republics, the place politicians desperately search Washington’s favor. These nations act as inside saboteurs inside the EU, obstructing any critical efforts by Germany or France to revive pragmatic relations with Moscow.
If Europe had been really left to its personal gadgets, Germany and France would seemingly pursue a extra rational strategy: hanging a cope with Russia, accommodating Polish ambitions to take care of regional stability, and prioritizing financial ties over ideological battles. However so long as US management stays intact, this stays a distant prospect.
The West is aware of Russia — however fears Washington
Regardless of a long time of anti-Russian rhetoric, no critical EU policymaker really fears Russia. Western Europe has handled Russia for over 500 years. European elites perceive Russia’s strengths and weaknesses, and so they belief in Moscow’s pragmatic strategy to diplomacy. What they worry just isn’t the Kremlin, however the unpredictable, coercive power of Washington.
At current, there isn’t any actual motion towards breaking free from American affect. The concept of a sovereign Western European strategic doctrine stays theoretical at finest. Trump’s America First coverage will proceed to shake the transatlantic relationship, however for now, the core constructions of American management over Europe stay firmly in place.
Till this adjustments, the EU will stay paralyzed — not by Russia, however by its personal submission to Washington.
This text was first printed by ‘Vzglyad’ newspaper and was translated and edited by the RT group.
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