leak exhibits US doubts in Ukraine counteroffensive – WaPo

29 leak exhibits US doubts in Ukraine counteroffensive – WaPo

High secret paperwork warn of main shortfalls in Kiev’s forces and their potential to reclaim territory

Leaked US intelligence paperwork paint a bleak image for a a lot anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive, in accordance with the Washington Put up, elevating doubts about Kiev’s potential to subject the manpower and ammunition wanted to maintain main fight operations within the coming months.

A part of leaked trove that started circulating on-line final month, information labeled “high secret” reveal American reservations concerning the upcoming counter-attack, warning {that a} lack of troops and ammunition may imply that Ukraine falls “properly quick” of its formidable objectives to retake misplaced floor over the spring, the Put up reported on Monday.

“Enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in coaching and munitions provides in all probability will pressure progress and exacerbate casualties throughout the offensive,” the doc says, happening to quote Russia’s sturdy community of defensive installations throughout the southern Kherson area and Kiev’s ongoing “drive era and sustainment shortfalls.” 

The doc additionally suggests Ukrainian forces will goal to seize territory within the south and east, apparently hoping to chop off Russian troops advancing from Crimea. Nevertheless, the intelligence evaluation predicts solely “modest” success in these objectives.  

A separate categorized briefing ready by the Nationwide Intelligence Council, seen by solely choose lawmakers on Capitol Hill, concluded that Kiev’s counter-offensive is “unlikely” to be as profitable as operations final fall, which did end in some regained floor, in accordance with sources cited by the Put up.

One more leaked doc cited by the Wall Road Journal on Sunday additionally warned that Ukraine faces a “looming air protection disaster” which may stop its navy from massing the frontline forces wanted for its counteroffensive. The evaluation predicts that, on the present fee of consumption, Kiev could have exhausted its provide of Buk air protection missiles someday this week, and all of its S-300 ammunition by Could 3, leaving its skies largely undefended.

Whereas the total scope of the leak – in addition to the veracity of the paperwork, a few of which seem to have been doctored – stays unclear, Pentagon spokesman Chris Meagher has acknowledged that the information “seem… to include delicate and highly-classified materials.”

Throughout a Monday briefing he mentioned each the Pentagon and Justice Division are probing the matter, and {that a} felony investigation was underway to find out the supply of the unauthorized disclosures. A earlier report within the New York Instances indicated “greater than 100” pages had been leaked in whole.

The doc trove accommodates a wealth of details about US and NATO battle planning in Ukraine, together with timelines for coaching and arms deliveries, knowledge on ammunition expenditures, the construction of Ukrainian fight models, estimated Russian and Ukrainian losses, and, apparently, info relating to international particular forces on the bottom. Officers have declined to verify the accuracy of their contents, nonetheless, saying solely that they’re investigating the leak.

Supply hyperlink