Former President Donald Trump is forward of Vice President Kamala Harris within the presidential contest, 50-48% in response to a brand new Fox Information nationwide survey. That’s a reversal from final month when Harris had a slim benefit.
Harris, nonetheless, is forward by 6 factors amongst voters from the seven key battleground states and the candidates tie 49% every amongst voters in shut counties (the place the Joe Biden-Trump 2020 margin was lower than 10 factors). Trump’s benefit comes from a bigger share in counties he received by greater than 10 factors in 2020 (64-35%) than Harris has in counties Biden received by greater than 10 factors (58-39%).
That raises the query of whether or not the Democrat might win the Electoral Faculty whereas dropping the nationwide standard vote. In 2000 and 2016, it was the GOP candidate who misplaced the favored vote however received the Electoral Faculty.
Trump’s 2-point edge amongst possible voters falls nicely inside the margin of error. The outcomes are equivalent among the many bigger group of registered voters. Final month, Harris was up by 2 factors (50-48%) amongst each possible and registered voters.
This evaluation makes use of registered voter outcomes for apples-to-apples development comparisons.
These are Trump’s greatest numbers since Harris turned the nominee in August. The motion towards him primarily comes from a rise in help amongst White voters, who now favor him by 10 factors, up from 4 factors final month and 6 factors in August. He’s additionally at file highs amongst voters 65 and over (49%) and people with a university diploma (48%).
On the identical time, Harris receives her lowest help since turning into the nominee amongst Black voters (67%), faculty graduates (49%), voters 65 and over (47%), and Whites with a university diploma (46%).
But on the floor, the race has stayed inside a small vary. In August, Trump was forward by 1 level, then Harris was up by 2 factors in September, and now Trump has a 2-point edge.
“Total, the motion towards Trump is delicate however doubtlessly consequential, particularly if he’s making good points amongst college-educated voters,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox Information surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. “Nonetheless, the race has been nicely inside the margin of error for 3 months and the end result will possible hinge on which facet is more practical at getting their voters to the polls versus persuasion.”
The 20-point gender hole stays, as males again Trump and girls go for Harris.
The excellent news for Harris is she will get 52% of latest voters (those that haven’t voted within the final two presidential elections) and 20% non-MAGA Republicans.
She can also be sustaining her double-digit lead over Trump amongst independents. That retains the competition shut, as every candidate receives backing from over 9 in 10 of their respective partisans. However, extra voters nationally determine as Republican than Democrat, and that’s what offers Trump the sting on this race.
Whereas the vice chairman will get majority help amongst Hispanics (52%) and voters below age 30 (54%), each numbers path President Joe Biden’s help in 2020 in response to the Fox Information Voter Evaluation election survey (6 in 10 from every group).
For Trump, the excellent news is that he improved on each subject and character trait since September. And a majority remembers his time in workplace positively: 53% approve of the job he did as president. That’s 4 factors larger than he ever obtained whereas in workplace. Absolutely 93% of Republicans approve as do 74% of non-MAGA Republicans and 45% of independents.
By comparability, at present solely 40% of voters approve of Biden’s job efficiency, which matches earlier lows in November 2023 and July 2022.
Solely barely extra, 43%, approve of the federal government’s response to current hurricanes, with most Democrats approving and most Republicans and independents disapproving.
The financial system continues to outrank all different points, as 40% say it’s crucial subject in deciding their selection for president. Lower than half as many prioritize immigration and abortion, and much fewer cite points reminiscent of election integrity, well being care, local weather change, weapons, crime, and international coverage.
Seven in 10 view the financial system negatively. The 30% who price situations positively is up from a low of 17% in 2022, and near the 33% who felt good in regards to the financial system on the finish of Trump’s time period. Half of Democrats give optimistic scores whereas majorities of Republicans and independents price financial situations negatively.
Total, 44% say they’re falling behind financially, which is worse by 17 factors in comparison with three years in the past when solely 27% felt that manner. Some 13% really feel they’re getting forward financially, whereas 43% are holding regular.
Trump is seen as higher than Harris at dealing with the financial system (by 8 factors). He additionally bests her on immigration (+15), crime (+8), and weapons (+6). With the increasing battle within the Center East, it’s noteworthy Trump is favored by 13 factors on Israel and the conflict, up from a 7-point lead in September. He has improved his standing on each subject in comparison with September, largely by small margins.
Extra voters belief Harris to deal with abortion (by 14 factors), local weather change (+12), and well being care (+8). The 2 candidates are rated about evenly on taxes (Trump +4), Supreme Courtroom nominations (Trump +1), and election integrity (Harris +3).
“Typically, elections are easy,” says Shaw. “In three weeks, we could also be questioning how we thought the sitting vice chairman would win when solely two in 5 voters assume the incumbent administration has carried out a very good job and just one in seven say they’re getting forward financially.”
Democrats and Republicans prioritize the problems in another way, with the widest hole (28 factors) on immigration. There’s an 18-point hole on abortion and 15 factors on the financial system.
Some 12% of Democrats see Trump as higher at dealing with the financial system and 18% really feel that manner about immigration, whereas 17% of Republicans belief Harris extra on abortion and local weather change.
Trump is helped by extra voters saying they know a fantastic deal about the place he stands on their precedence points than they do about Harris (57% vs. 44%). Absolutely 78% of Republicans really feel they know a fantastic deal about Trump’s stances whereas 65% of Democrats say the identical about Harris.
Lower than half imagine Trump (43%) and Harris (48%) are trustworthy and reliable, although Trump’s quantity is a private greatest. Voters are additionally extra more likely to see him as a robust chief (55% vs. 47% for Harris) and “as much as the job” of president (53% vs. 50%). Harris has an edge on having the psychological soundness to be president (54% vs. 52% for Trump), however right here once more Trump is at a private greatest.
Harris has misplaced floor on some key traits. She was seen as higher at serving to the center class by 9 factors in September and that has declined to 4 factors now. Her 5-point edge on “preventing for folks such as you” is now 2 factors, and her 6-point benefit on “defending private rights and freedoms” has disappeared because the candidates are tied.
Voters additionally narrowly see Trump because the one bringing wanted change and defending free speech, each traits the place Harris was favored final month.
The race continues to be extra about Trump than Harris, as most of his backers say their vote is for him fairly than towards Harris. Amongst Harris supporters, two-thirds describe their vote as for her, however one-third say it’s towards Trump. For comparability, in Might, almost half of Biden supporters stated their vote was primarily towards Trump. Amongst Trump supporters, 80% say they’re voting for him fairly than towards Harris (18%).
When saying in their very own phrases what one subject or issue was motivating them to get out and vote this yr, the highest response from Harris supporters is dislike of the opposite candidate, adopted by defending democracy, and abortion. For these backing Trump, the financial system and immigration are the highest two motivators, adopted by candidate traits. Amongst males, it’s dislike of the opposite candidate, the financial system, and traits (in that order), whereas for girls the financial system and abortion tie as the highest motivator, adopted by candidate traits.
Ballot-Pourri
- As purple and blue states grow to be shades of purple it’s powerful to know what stage of a well-liked vote suggests a win within the Electoral Faculty. In 2016, Hillary Clinton acquired extra votes nationally by a 2-point margin however misplaced the Electoral Faculty (by 77 electoral votes), whereas Joe Biden had a 4-point benefit within the standard vote and received the Electoral Faculty (by 74).
- About one-third of voters total and one-third of ladies say Harris turning into the primary feminine president issues to their vote. Among the many 17% saying it issues a fantastic deal, 80% again Harris.
- About 3 in 10 voters say they verify information a number of instances a day they usually favor Trump by 10 factors. On the different finish of the spectrum, 1 in 10 say they don’t take note of information, and these disengaged voters favor Trump by 16 factors. The 57% who observe information often however not consistently again Harris by 6 factors.
- Most of every candidate’s backers really feel sure of their vote, and two-thirds of each Harris’ and Trump’s supporters say they’re “extraordinarily” motivated to vote.
Performed October 11-14, 2024 below the route of Beacon Analysis (D) and Shaw & Firm Analysis (R), this Fox Information survey contains interviews with a pattern of 1,110 registered voters randomly chosen from a nationwide voter file. Respondents spoke with reside interviewers on landlines (129) and cellphones (719) or accomplished the survey on-line after receiving a textual content (262). Outcomes primarily based on each the total registered voter pattern and the subsample of 870 possible voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 share factors. Sampling error related to outcomes amongst subgroup is larger. Along with sampling error, query wording and order can affect outcomes. Weights are usually utilized to age, race, training, and space variables to make sure the demographics of respondents are consultant of the registered voter inhabitants. Sources for growing weight targets embrace the American Group Survey, Fox Information Voter Evaluation, and voter file information. Probably voters are primarily based on a probabilistic statistical mannequin that depends on previous vote historical past, curiosity within the present election, age, training, race, ethnicity, church attendance, and marital standing.
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