Greater than 160,000 volunteers have been examined in England between November 13 and December 3 as a part of Imperial Faculty London’s seventh React examine.
The examine discovered that, whereas infections throughout the nation fell by nearly a 3rd throughout the second lockdown, bringing R under 1, there have been regional variations.
The prevalence in London rose from 98 per 10,000 individuals in mid-November, to 121 per 10,000 by the start of this month.
This was the best prevalence after Yorkshire and the Humber, and the North East, which additionally rose when evaluating regional prevalence for November 13-24 to the interval of November 25-December 3.
Prevalence additionally elevated within the East of England however was down within the East Midlands, North West, West Midlands and South West over the identical interval, the information confirmed.
Regional R numbers throughout lockdown ranged from 0.60 for the West Midlands as much as 1.27 for London, the researchers stated.
Steven Riley, professor of infectious illness dynamics at Imperial Faculty London, stated: “What we didn’t see within the second half of spherical seven – which we’d have hoped to have seen – is on the nationwide scale, we didn’t see that sharp pattern proceed all the best way down.
“What we’ve seen here’s a levelling off.”
He stated there’s a danger that, whereas circumstances are decrease than they’ve been in northern elements of the nation, there may very well be an analogous rise to that seen in London.
Prof Riley stated: “If you consider our information, and the latest case information from pillar one pillar two, we appear to be at a stage of epidemic the place there’s potential for fast rises.
“That’s been seen elsewhere all over the world, but it surely appears to have the ability to abruptly soar up, maybe for causes that we possibly don’t perceive utterly.
“So I believe even when the present ranges are decrease in northern areas, than they’ve been within the current previous and seem to have levelled off, there’s clearly some type of danger that they will speed up in the best way that London has.”
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial, stated: “Through the first half of lockdown our examine confirmed that infections have been on a transparent downward trajectory, however we’re now seeing a levelling off, pushed by clusters of infections in sure areas and age teams.
“Behaviours and public well being measures should be guided by this fast-changing state of affairs to stop it from worsening, and everybody has a component to play in holding this virus at bay, particularly as we strategy a soothing of guidelines over Christmas.”