Lately there was rising criticism of the electoral school system within the US as a result of it has allowed a tiny variety of People to find out the result of the presidential election.
In 2020, about 43,000 votes amongst Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona – a mere 0.03% of the votes solid nationwide – allowed Biden to win. In 2016, about 80,000 mixed votes gave Trump his successful margins in key swing states.
How does this occur? How is such a slim margin so decisive in an election wherein 154.6m votes are solid? Right here’s the way it works.
The problem in 2024
Presidential candidates want no less than 270 electoral votes – greater than half of the whole – to win an election. As slim victories can get events over the road and decide the election, these states with very shut wins, typically known as “swing states”, get particular consideration from pollsters, campaigners and pundits.
Within the 2024 election, there are six swing states: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). The Harris marketing campaign additionally considers North Carolina, often a Republican state within the presidential race, and its 16 electoral votes to be aggressive. Whichever candidate wins the election should carry some mixture of these states.
The concept of a swing state may also change over time with shifting demographics and political developments. Till lately, for instance, Ohio and Florida had been thought of swing states, however they’re now thought of to be fairly solidly Republican. Michigan was thought of a comparatively stable Democratic stronghold till Donald Trump gained it in 2016.
Over the following few months, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will spend most of their time campaigning in these states, understanding that these voters will decide the result of the election.
Criticisms of the electoral system
These very slim wins in latest elections add into the rising criticism that the facility of a presidential vote is determined by the place one lives.
The least populous states, equivalent to North and South Dakota, and the smaller states of New England are overrepresented due to the required minimal of three electoral votes.
Electoral votes are assigned to every state in line with their inhabitants. However then every of them will get two extra to characterize their Senate seats – which implies much less populous states get a minimal of three electoral votes, whatever the dimension of their inhabitants. In the meantime, the states with the most individuals – California, Texas and Florida – are underrepresented within the electoral school.
Which means whereas one elector in Wyoming represents 195,000 folks, in a state like Texas, one elector represents 763,000 folks.
This has change into extra related in latest occasions, as over the past 20 years the variety of states gained by margins of greater than 15% – a landslide win – has elevated.
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